Classic Empire Performance

[boardedup]

Julian said post race CE wasn\'t \"all the way ready\" to run today.  Super tough trip, showed a lot of grit in the stretch, for not being all the way ready, that was an impressive performance.  He beat a horse in CMM that fires every time, even though he get\'s limited pub.  

 CE will be the ML Favorite now?  Do you guys agree, what kind of price do you see?  I\'d guess the ml would go

Favorite- Classic Empire
2nd choice- Always dreaming
3rd Choice-Irish war Cry
4th choice- McCracken

from here who knows?


 CE more than answered the bell today, what about CMM though?  Not much talk about this one who seems to run his race every time out? Another strong effort today in my opinion.

[Furious Pete]

Decent performance to manage to win the race, but was it the Derby winner? I didn\'t get that feeling. Race set up pretty well for him in the end, I don\'t know how many lengths Sonneteer made up on him in the last turn and stretch, 10 maybe, while going really wide?

Will be very interested in the figure though.

First adjusted offshore odds after todays race have it:

Always Dreaming 6/1
Classic Empire 7/1
Irish War Cry 7/1
McCraken 8/1
Gunnevera 12/1
Practical Joke 12/1
Thunder Snow 14/1
Girvin 14/1

Draw will obviously be a factor in this, but I still think IWC could be the post time favorite, but it should be close with AD and maybe also Classic Empire. I think Thunder Snow will take money if he shows up, 4th choice - 5th choice maybe? A hell of a betting race if one have an opinion!

[jbelfior]

Just think of it this way....they all made Lookin at Lee look good.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[FrankD.]

However you stack up top 4, add PJ and Girvin to the mix for your top 6 betting choices. I\'m tossing 4 of them completely out!!!

Sunland Derby looking like a pretty good prep.

[sekrah]

Sonneteer might need a miracle to get into the race.

[Tavasco]

Amen. Less said the better.

[Silver Charm]

Because the horse won it has to be called a solid effort. How solid? Idk. Will he move forward in 3 weeks? No guarantee. And he needs to.

The final 1/8th looks fast but it to be and illusion. The front 2 were staggering and there were about 5 average critters within 2.5 lengths of each other. There were skeptics today. He was 8/5 ML and went off 9/5. They will still remain. Harlan Holiday was a 6-1 favorite. We are looking at something similar. Possibly the Wood winner at 5-1 with a pair of triple digit Beyers in his resume. Betting public goes here.

[Furious Pete]

Yes. Exactly. That didn\'t look so strong.

[jimbo66]

Not sure what race the rest of the people in this thread watched.

Classic Empire came in to this race off an extended break, missing workouts (physical and mental problems).  He then gets a disgusting trip (not sure what race Furious Pete was watching, saying it set up for him).  He was 3w/4w first turn and again 3w/4w second turn.  

And he closed down the frontrunners in the lane, leveling off pretty well and running his last fraction in good time.  

Now, you want to say that you don\'t want to bet this horse because he is a headcase and there will be 120,000 or so at Churchill Downs.  So be it,.

But the performance today was legit. No reasonable interpretation of the race is anything but a good performance by Classic Empire.

As for Derby favorite, I don\'t think this is the year you worry about \"tossing the favorite to create value\".  There is no big favorite.  5-1 or 6-1 sounds about right.  Classic Empire, Irish War Cry and Always Dreaming are all going to be in the 5-1 to 7-1 range.  Nobody else will be less than 10-1.  

From those top 3, Always Dreaming is going to be coming in off a 5 point top and 9 point move off his 3-year old races, Irish War Cry is going to be coming in off a multi-point top, having shown he reacts to tops, and then you have Classic Empire, who may be coming in off roughly a pair or so, at a level that may win with the right trip,.

Very hard to toss this horse just \"hoping\" he acts up in front of a crowd, especially if he is 6-1 or 7-1.  

Not a key at that price, but tough to toss off any sheets logic.

Jim

[sekrah]

I\'m with you, Jim.  I thought he was solid and is one of the top contenders in Churchill.  Wasn\'t a toss today and shouldn\'t be a toss in 3 weeks.

[johnnym]

Agree Jimbo:
Horse has the goods,more concerned about Frenchie.

[mjellish]

Maybe the trickiest thing, say... if you have a complicated Derby bet that will take 30 minutes or so to get completed and you want to see how CE looks in the post parade first, you probably won\'t be able to do that and get your bet in.

I know we all want to see our equine athletes on the track first before we lay down a big bet.  But it could be \"All Important\" with this colt.  As a 2 year old he was very impressive.  Then he\'s a mess before the Hopeful, tosses the jockey at the start.  Then comes back and wins 2 races, including the BC Juv, impressively.  Comes back for his 3 year old debut in the Holy Bull and, if you didn\'t see the pre-race, is a complete mess, washed out, about as foamy as you can get dripping from the kidneys, refuses to load and of course comes up empty in the drive when it matters at 1/2 odds.  The connections come out afterwards and blame it on a foot abscess, but his refusal(s) to train are well documented.  Then today he comes out, looks fairly composed, not hot at all and runs a pretty bang up race.  

Which CE are you going to get on May 6th, and how do you handicap and strategize to get your bet in based on the two possible scenarios (assuming you like him at all to start with) knowing you will only get about a 15 minute window to decide one way or the other unless he does you a favor and melts down during the walkover or in the paddock?

What a shi* show...

[Chuckwagon]

Not sure why I am picking this post for my maiden after lurking here for years but here goes:  Much less playing this horse without the benefit of a look-see given the established antics in any Oaks-Derby Double or Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3.

[big18741]

94 Beyer for Classic Empire.

Versatile horse going back to his Bashford Manor win and yesterdays trip was not as easy as the Breeders Futurity and Juvenile wins from last year.

Could be he doesn\'t like running down on the inside with the kickback-he moved out a couple paths going into the first turn but seemed to handle being in some traffic going down the backside.He had to steady early so maybe Leparoux wanted to get him out of there.

Chart has him a bit keen going into the turn.

[jbelfior]

Gutsy performance and a gutsy horse for sure.

Buyer beware of a horse who was losing ground on the turn and could not go with the great Untrapped, but forturnately for his followers has a better distance pedigree than the staggering 3 in front of him.

Not for me.

Good Luck,
Joe B