Early Stab at Derby M/L, '17

[Fairmount1]

Here is the way too early stab at a Morning Line I do each year based on takeout listed on HANA\'s website.  I am thinking that there may be additions (Conquest Mo Money) and defections (Thunder Snow/Malagacy/Cloud Computing possibly).  

Go ahead and tear it apart as I always say.  I\'m not as confident as past years but again it is still 19 days out with several actual decisions left to be made by trainers/owners about whether or not to run their horse.  If you are curious how I did last year with the M/L I posted on the board once the field was more set I\'ve included it below.  The bold numbers indicate the ACTUAL ordinal rank and the ACTUAL odds in the \'16 Derby.  The non-bold numbers were my guess.  


1 Classic Empire, 3.50-1
2 Irish War Cry, 4.80-1
3 McCracken, 7.80-1
4 Always Dreaming, 9.90-1
5 Girvin, 12.30-1
6 Gunnevera, 15.60-1
7 Practical Joke, 16.50-1
8 Gormley, 17.50-1
9 Hence, 19.80-1
10 Thunder Snow, 23.30-1
11 Battalion Runner, 24.00-1
12 Tapwrit, 24.60-1
13 J Boys Echo, 26.70-1
14 Irap, 32.30-1
15 Battle of Midway, 33.40-1
16 State of Honor, 34.70-1
17 Cloud Computing, 39.00-1
18 Patch, 46.60-1
19 Malagacy, 54.50-1
20 Fast and Accurate, 70.40-1

AE of Note, Lookin at Lee, Approx. 28-1 depending on defection and adjustments to others.  
___________________________________________________

1. 1Nyquist, 3.50-1 , 2.30
2. 2Exaggerator, 5.90-1,  5.10
3. 10 Brody\'s Cause, 8.50-1, 24.90
4. 7Destin, 9.00-1, 18.00
5. 4Mohaymen, 10.70-1, 11.80
6. 6Creator, 12.30-1, 16.40
7. 3 Gun Runner, 12.80-1, 10.30
8. 5Mor Spirit, 13.20-1, 12.80
9. 12Mo Tom, 19.00-1, 25.70
10. 9Suddenbreakingnews, 23.30-1, 24.60
11. 11Danzig Candy, 27.50-1, 25.70
12. 8My Man Sam, 29.30-1, 19.50
13. 15Whitmore, 31.20-1, 30.30
14. 13Outwork, 34.70-1, 26.50
15. 14Lani, 36.00-1, 29.30
16. 19Shagaf, 39.00-1, 56.00
17. 18Tom\'s Ready, 44.40-1, 49.10
18. 20 Majesto, 49.00-1, 56.60
19. 17Oscar Nominated, 70.40-1, 42.30
20. 16Trojan Nation, 82.30-1, 42.10

[Molesap]

Fairmount1
This is an interesting list and in general am in agreement with a number of things. I thought it was especially interesting to see how last year panned out. However, I am a bit confused on what your line actually represents. Is it an early assessment of what you think the odds for particular horses should be based on your assessment of their relative chances or is it a prediction of the odds set by the public at post time? I think this is an important distinction. If you think Always Dreaming deserves to be almost 10/1 that is one thing, but if you think he will drift that high in the wagering, that is another. I cannot argue with the former, butI would be very surprised if Always Dreaming went off at any higher than 6/1.

[Airnate012]

Yesterday Jon White discussed what his preliminary M/L odds will be for the contenders and horses on the bubble:

Classic Empire: 5/1

Irish War Cry: 6/1

Always Dreaming: 6/1

McCracken: 12/1

Gunnevera: 12/1

Girvin: 15/1

Practical Joke: 15/1

Gormley: 15/1

Thunder Snow: 20/1

Hence: 20/1

Conquest Mo Money: 20/1

Irap: 20/1

Malagacy: 20/1

J Boys Echo: 20/1

Tapwrit: 20/1

Battalion Runner: 20/1

Cloud Computing: 20/1

Untrapped: 20/1

Lookin at Lee: 20/1

Sonneteer: 20/1

State of Honor: 30/1

Patch: 30/1

Battle of Midway: 30/1

Royal Mo: 30/1

Fast and Accurate: 50/1

[TheBull]

Sonneteer at a 20/ml made me spit out my coffee in laughter....I needed that this morning. In other news, Chad now leaning towards skipping the Derby with Cloud Computing....opens the door for Untrapped and Lookin at Lee

[Airnate012]

I saw that too, looking at the Preakness for Cloud Computing. I\'d imagine both Asmussens on the bubble will make the field, which will give him 3.

[atakante]

Which horses are likely to set the pace in the Top 20/25?
I don\'t see any suicidal early speed here, but it will likely be legit as it always is for the Derby.

[boardedup]

Without the benefit of PP, I\'d guess Battalion runner would be sent, Irap would likely be forwardly placed but not sure he\'s fast enough to get the lead. AD should be right there to.

[Fairmount1]

Sorry I wasn\'t clear in the original post. Generally I don\'t think people are too interested in my handicapping opinion or assessment of the Derby horses.   In past years I have been more clear to state what the M/L I post represents.  I am attempting to predict the off odds when the horses leave the gate for the benefit of helping you determine your bets, the ordinal rank of horses as you play your exotics, etc.  

Last year, I was way off on Nyquist, Destin, and Brody\'s Cause.  We will see about Always Dreaming but I have put quite a bit of thought into where I positioned Always Dreaming and his odds.  I don\'t see him as the second choice or 6-1 horse everyone else sees him as being.  

Finally, I will note this is a \"balanced\" odds line that factors in the takeout and represents a real representation of what could be the off odds as opposed to listing 5 horses at 3-1 and 10 horses at 15-1, etc which would never happen.  

I have a spreadsheet with the ordinal rank and odds of every Derby horse since 2000 I reference when making this so I have some \"history\" of the what the Derby crowd has done to help me out.  Hope this helps. If you have any other questions feel free to pm me.

[Furious Pete]

If you can get 10/1 on Always Dreaming come post time, and he\'s got a decent draw and looked okay in training and have acted cool in the paddock and warm-up, it really should be a no-brainer for everyone to put him first IMO. I\'m considering to play him to win at odds considerably lower than that, because I don\'t expect him to be 10/1.

[FrankD.]

Fairmount, Fairmount, Fairmount,

I have to step in, Richie Bee is not doing his job as your surrogate!!!!

Your time would be better spent looking for the elusive 6ft, red headed, Oriental girl who speaks French. I\'ve been at it for 40 years and the closest I\'ve come is a 5ft9in Korean who spoke French but was willing to die her hair and wear heels.

Get a life:)

FD step Dad.

[trackjohn]

Frank

 Let\'s be a bit PC...Asian girl who speaks French...

J

[TGJB]

I can only assume Jimbo hasn\'t seen the \"no brainer\" usage yet.

[FrankD.]

He is busy opening a pay pal account to take that action

[sekrah]

Upon visual inspects of the strides of every horse in all the prep races, none were more impressive than Always Dreaming coming home. The horse looked like he just jumped into the race at the 1/8th pole and smoked them. Despite being far off the pace, Gunnevera only made up 1 1/2 lengths on him in the stretch, and Gunnevera is a class animal. The negative sentiment towards AD has to be purely Pletcher driven.

AD is a real nice horse.

[Furious Pete]

Yeah I\'m pretty sure \"Winnebago Man\" is of another opinion.