Early Stab at Derby M/L, '17

[jimbo66]

Templeton,

I will be using Practical Joke.  For sure.  He has easily the best looking sheet in the race to me.  

I don\'t know if I will be \"keying\" him.  I am a mostly a horizontal player and will likely use 3 horses or so in horizontal bets.  But vertically within the Derby I am not sure who I will use yet.  I need to see draw and workouts.

What I have said pretty clearly is that for ME Practical Joke is a classic case of the eye test disagreeing with the sheet.  I watch him run and he looks visually like a miler or so and \"can\'t quite get the late punch\" to win.  Which could be the case.  but he is losing ground in all his races.  So is he flattening out late because he is a miler or because he is getting wide trips this year.

Not to mention, Practical Joke will be 15-1 and Always Dreamin will be 5-1ish.

One has a 2 year old top of 2 and a 1 - 0 running line this year.  

The other has a 9-9-0 running line.

Easy call.

[FrankD.]

Top,

Just called in a sizable wager on the Rangers. They had some very serious eyes during the National Anthems. One of my tells !!!! They won\'t be embarrassed tonight.

[TempletonPeck]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Templeton,
>
> I will be using Practical Joke.  For sure.  He has
> easily the best looking sheet in the race to me.
>

Ok, I think then that I probably either misunderstood or mis-remembered your position on this one.

>
> I don\'t know if I will be \"keying\" him.  I am a
> mostly a horizontal player and will likely use 3
> horses or so in horizontal bets.  But vertically
> within the Derby I am not sure who I will use yet.
>  I need to see draw and workouts.
>

Makes sense, especially considering the wide trip element you mention below.

> What I have said pretty clearly is that for ME
> Practical Joke is a classic case of the eye test
> disagreeing with the sheet.  I watch him run and
> he looks visually like a miler or so and \"can\'t
> quite get the late punch\" to win.  Which could be
> the case.  but he is losing ground in all his
> races.  So is he flattening out late because he is
> a miler or because he is getting wide trips this
> year.
>

I noticed in his last he was asked to make a decent move quite early and wonder if that was part of the reason for his failure to get up in the deep stretch... I think those types of middle moves are tough on a horse (and occasionally move them up for their next race).

> Not to mention, Practical Joke will be 15-1 and
> Always Dreamin will be 5-1ish.
>
> One has a 2 year old top of 2 and a 1 - 0 running
> line this year.  
>
> The other has a 9-9-0 running line.
>
> Easy call.

Fair enough! Thanks for clarifying.

[Furious Pete]

Cheers!

Not all mexicans are thiefs.

[rezlegal]

Jim-let me ask you a question about your 18-10-14 -7 pattern, particularly as a developmental pattern. Let\'s assume the first out ( the 18) was a no try ( see D.Wayne Lucas).The 10 was an effort. The horse reacts to the effort by running a 14. The 14 is still faster than than the 18. The horse now runs a big new top. Assuming spacing ok - in a developing horse in the hands of a competent trainer I might well conclude the horse will pair up the 7 or even go forward. Your view?Much of this view comes from Julian\'s tapes from a century ago and would be interested in your view... and PJ does have the nicest sheet of all contenders, distance concerns aside.

[jimbo66]

Sekrah,

4 horses in the last 34 years.

From those 4 horses, both Big Brown and Gato Del Sol had never gone backward or paired, only moved forward, so they hadn\'t established a level.  

From the other 2, one was Sunday silence, one of the best horses of the last 35 years for sure.

Maybe Always Dreamin is the next Sunday Silence.  For 5-1 or so, you can find out.

Jim

[sekrah]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sekrah,
>
> 4 horses in the last 34 years.
>
> From those 4 horses, both Big Brown and Gato Del
> Sol had never gone backward or paired, only moved
> forward, so they hadn\'t established a level.  
>
> From the other 2, one was Sunday silence, one of
> the best horses of the last 35 years for sure.
>
> Maybe Always Dreamin is the next Sunday Silence.
> For 5-1 or so, you can find out.
>
> Jim


In my analysis, AD has never established a level IMO.  Good luck in the Derby.

[jimbo66]

Rezlegal,

I understand your read.  And it makes sense.  I guess it depends on price and what the other alternatives are.  I certainly would NOT be betting the horse at 5-1 or lower, needing a forward move to win.  If a pair can win with the right trip and he is 5-1 or higher, I guess maybe.

My main point was to try and explain to Furious Pete that his \"point\" about American Pharaoh was silly.

But, for me, all other factors equal, I want 15-10-7 more than 18-10-14-7 for a 2 year old.

The first one hasn\'t yet \"hit a level\", while the latter has already shown the 10 was a big effort.

I guess one could argue here comes the bounce for the 15-10-7 horse.

As for Practical Joke\'s sheet.  Ugh.  A headache for me.  Looks so good, but sprinters in the family.  The only thing going for him is that Frank D says Practical Joke won\'t finish in the top 12 now.... (started out as the superfecta...

Jim

[BitPlayer]

If we are going to play the similar sheet game, I would nominate Danza (2014 in the Archive): trained by Pletcher, decent top at the Spa at two, long rest, sparingly raced at three; jumped forward in Hot Springs, and (drum roll) paired in the the Derby with Trouble.  The major difference would be that Always Dreaming\'s top was faster and thus more likely to produce a bounce.

I\'m not saying I would bet Always Dreaming at 5-1.  I think this race is going to set up for a closer or a stalker who has learned to take dirt.  And I think Pletcher is much better at getting one big effort than at getting two in a row.

About the pair of 9\'s at three: I think it was Mathcapper who pointed out that the Hong Kong batch betting guys failed at first because they failed to weigh the public\'s views in their algorithm.  Always Dreaming did not get bet down to 5-2 in the Florida Derby because the public thought the 9\'s were representative of his ability.  I think Frank D. characterized those as \"boat races.\"

[FrankD.]

Bit.

Pletcher did not have AD at 2. Dominick Schettino did.

[boardedup]

Danza ran great w a beyond brutal trip, I like the comparison. Would an AD pair up be good enough to get it done this year in your opinion?

[Fairmount1]

That was his last race......

[boardedup]

Isn\'t it possible to believe both in this case? Meaning I believe with everything in me that every horse bounces. TG helps illuminate when this will happen better than anything else around.  It just seems that maybe, and it\'s a big maybe, but maybe this one didn\'t really run at all his two previous starts and a pair or even another move forward is quite possible this time?

Standard disclaimer: like the cylincly insane I swear off ever betting a TAP in the derby every first Saturday night in May around 6:45pm. but somehow, I\'m over taken by an inner reaccuring sickness and 11 months later I find myself arguing the exact opposite not only to myself but with people I really have no business questioning...

[belmont3]

Wasn\'t War Emblem a private purchase by Baffert a few weeks before Derby?

And still 21 to 1.
Remember that very well

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/10/23/sports/horse-racing-war-emblem-finishing-where-his-saga-began.html

[RICH]

and thunder fills out the exacta too!