Updating 4 point Derby jump up results

[toppled]

The last 2 years I\'ve posted a study of 4 or more point jump ups from their best top in the Derby entrants\' last prep race.  This year there are at least 4 horses who jumped up 4.0 points or more in their last Derby prep. They are Irap (7.0 points), Irish War Cry (4.0), Always Dreaming (5.5) and Hence (4.0).

Edit-I actually missed one in 2013 because I didn\'t originally include another one of Pletcher\'s jump ups. I missed the poly to 1st dirt failure of Charming Kitten. He is now included.

  Overall there have been 30 horses that jumped up 4 pts or better in their final prep. 2 won, but one, Big Brown, jumped from a 1 to a -3.5, so he was fast before the jump. The other was Charismatic in 1999. As for the rest, Ice Box ran 2nd but regressed a point. None of the other 27 hit the board and only 2 other made it to 4th to be in the super. Last year we did not have Lani\'s early races, so the data was incomplete as to whether he had a 4+ point jump up, but he\'s included in the study. Here are the results year by year, the 1st # is the horse\'s Derby finish, followed by the points he jumped up in his last prep, followed by the number of points he regressed in the Derby. Overall 27 of 30 regressed, the 8 six points or over regressed at least 1.50 points & the worst of the 7, who progressed 7.0 points regressed 21 points. This year only Irap has the huge jump up (7.0) off his prior top, but the 3 other aforementioned horses this year all broke the 4 point jump up barrier.  
This, combined with Pletcher\'s dreadful record with horses who jumped up big in their last Derby prep has me having a very negative (not sheet # projection) opinion of Always Dreaming\'s chances.

 2016
 6th, 7.75, 2.75
 9th, 4.5 (incomplete data), improved 2.25
 16th 4.75, 9.00

 2015
 17th,5.25,16

 2014
 4th,7.75,2.5
 6th,6,1.75
 8th, 7,4.25

 2013
 9th, 4.5,4.0

 (none the years 2011-2012)

 2010
 2nd,4.50,1.00
 8th,4.75,3.25
 10th,4.00,5.50
 11th,5.00,8.00
 18th,4.25,25.25

 2009
 4th,6.0,1.50
 6th,7.50,1.75
 14th,4.75,6.50

 2008-Big Brown won
 1st,4.50,improved 1.25
 11th,4.00,7.50

 2005
 7th,4.75,9.25
 11th,6.75,5.75
 19th,7.0,21.00

 2004
 14th,4.75,7.25

 2003
 14th,6.00,9.75

 2002
 14th,4.00,7.00

 2001
 6th,5.00,4.50
 11th,5.75,8.75

 1999 Charismatic won
 1st,4.50, paired
 15th,5.00,6.00
 16th,4.00,8.50

 1998
 11th,5.25,14.00

[TheBull]

Tremendous info. Very useful. It is also worth noting that of the three jump ups in this study that actually hit the exacta, they were all coming off 4.5 pt jump up. There were plenty of 5 pt + jump ups and ALL regressed and were off the board. So, specific to Always Dreaming, he is in even worse shape. You are asking him to do something hasn\'t been done in the recent and relevant past (something fundamentally significant too, unlike the arbitrary trends like no geldings or no horse with less than three starts at 3yo). Combine that with the Pletcher factor, not to mention his dosage is 5.0 (for those who still believe in that), and this guy screams bet against as the potential 6/1 second or third choice. This is a game of probabilities, and weighing the probability of him hitting the exacta vs the odds presented??? I just can\'t endorse him.

[BitPlayer]

Although the focus of your post is on Always Dreaming, some of what you are saying also applies to Irish War Cry.  In my view, both he and Gunnevera have less-than-ideal patterns, but they have the fastest tops in the race (by a healthy margin if you ignore Malagacy and his sprint top).  The question becomes: how bad a pattern are you willing to forgive in the fastest horse?  TGJB has said he is uncertain about the Wood day figures.  Would you feel better about him if IWC\'s Wood figure were a point or two slower?

[FrankD.]

Bit,

IMHO: The list of likeable patterns this year isn\'t very deep to say the least. Add in the fact that a couple of the pretty ones come with a lot of questions.

I hate big negative numbers early in a 3 yr olds season. I posted after the FOY that I thought Gunny was done. However in a crazy year like this with the explosive turn of foot he showed in that race and in the Delta Jackpot anything is possible. His stretch run in the FL Derby is a bit overrated as he ran by some overmatched horses. He can definitely get a suck up bottom part of a tri or super ticket. There in lies this years problem they ALL ARE UNDERNEATH HORSES.

IWC: Distance is not an issue, Curlins off spring improve 5 points from 2-3, take a little of the Wood number and you are correct it doesn\'t look that terrible.

Now, back to the eye test and a big bounce off his previous effort. The Wood was a gut wrenching race and he took all the worst of it. There is some debate over the track that day, I have it Very speed & rail friendly. Green Gratto aside there were a couple big prices horses that held 2nd on the engine & rail passed by better horses. It was a dig deep down and everything he had effort to get the top spot. I\'m sure for any other race but the Derby GM is not bringing this one back in 4 weeks. He will not be on any of my tickets.

I\'ll not be contributing my usual amount to the handle this year. On second thought maybe I\'ll just take Jimbo\'s action for the day 😎

Good luck,

Frank D.

[ajkreider]

Gunny is more likely an underneath horse because of the style - closers hit trouble or get started too late.

The first half-mile of Gunny\'s FD went in :48 3/5 while he was on or near the rail.  The 2nd half-mile went in :48 flat while three to four wide.  That doesn\'t look like a horse that\'s cooked.  

He\'s had something like 15 5F works at GPW since last July.  His first work after the FOY went in 1:04.8, which is the slowest of those works by three seconds.  His next work went in 1:01.8, which is the second slowest of those.  This is a horse who looks like he  A) reacted big time and  B) was already starting to recover by the FD.  In the FD, he bounces back to his old top - which is a number he\'s run in three of his last four races.  That\'s not an IWC kind of bounce.  And his most recent work went in 1:00.6 - which is the kind of time he usually puts up.  

So, I think he goes forward from here. How far is anyone\'s guess.  But I will let the horse-flesh people like Welsch make my decision on how to include him.

[Chas04]

The under card should be phenomenal this year with no Tepin or Wise Dan to ruin the dance. If anything.....handle will be way up for me in those slots. Right now- Looking at Lee is my play if he gets in the gate. Don\'t like anyone & for the first time in a long time will hone in on \'the works\'. Hopefully a few stand out.

[johnnym]

Off of memory,last time Gunny ran a new top at Saratoga he bounced at Keenland then he came right back to Delta Downs and ran a new top.
In every race I have watched of this horse he makes his move.
He does not need to run a new top a pair is just fine.
To me Gunny is the best value it looks like at 12-1 with the least amount of questions about him. Am I concerned about him getting cut of turning for home or going 6W?
I am, but then again one of Pletchers go to guys is staying with him.
Yes will be relying on Welsh and company in the coming week.
Good Luck

[toppled]

1st off, I don\'t see this year as a single horse year, I\'ll want at least 5 horses to include in exotics, mostly Oaks/Derby DDs.  I\'d much rather have a strong feeling on 1 horse, but this year isn\'t it.  So I\'m much less inclined to toss a fast horse since there is no standout.  

While I feel Always Dreaming is an easy toss because I\'ve seen this with Pletcher too many times before on Derby day-gutting the horse 1 race before the Derby, I\'m not sure how to interpret Gunnevera or Irish War Cry.  In Gunnevera\'s case, he has 1 fast race and the rest of his 3 good #s are the same-just average in this field.  If he\'s tearing up the track in the morning, I\'m inclined to throw him in the exotic mix. As far as Irish War Cry, I\'d be leery with only 1 workout since when he bounced in the FOY, he had only 1 work between races.  2 works, in good time make him a borderline horse to me. Among the 4 horses who had a 4 point jump in their final prep, the one that I\'ll probably include in my top 5 is Hence.  I\'m a big key race guy and the Sunland Derby is looking awfully good, especially if Hedge Fund wins big in Illinois this Saturday.  

I\'m still waiting to see the Ark Derby #s and of course, workouts the next 2 weeks, before completing my list of contenders.  Right now my top 5 are Thunder Snow, who has 2 average #s on dirt and needs to improve, but if he comes will be the 1st UAE horse I\'ve ever bet in the Derby because he looks like a horse who has a forward move in him; Classic Empire, who was the fastest 2YO and may be rounding up to a peak effort; Gunnevera; Hence, off a key race; and McCraken,a horse I already have covered in future bets with a win bet in future pool 2 & exacta boxes with Classic Empire & the field, which will give me 9 or 10 horses who weren\'t in pool 2 in my exacta box.  Since I\'ve already covered McCraken, the horse I\'ll move up to #5 is Battalion Runner, since he does not fit the big jump up in his final prep that has doomed so many Pletcher runners.  I consider him the best of the Pletchers. I\'m also having a tough time with Practical Joke.  I think he has the best sheet going into the Derby, but he\'s questionable on breeding.  I\'m inclined to throw him into the mix if I can narrow down the Oaks.

[boston]

Lots of big move ups for sure.  Does anyone know how horses coming in off a bounce has done?  At leash 20% of the horse coming in off a bounce.

Gunnevera backs up 5, Tapwrit backs up 3, Patch backs up 4, J Boy backs up 3,

[johnnym]

Top of my head look at Monarchos sheet.
Lots of information in the archives section.
Please feel free to share your findings.

[jbrown007]

Toppled- you keep referring to the pletcher move up but the last two relevant horses were Danza and Destin and both fired in the derby. I think the recent data is more relevant then data 5-10 years ago. Pletcher has trained/placed Dreaming uniquely so I don\'t believe past data is as relevant and if you look at past data Danza and Destin are good examples.

[Wrongly]

I thought the same thing about Carpe Diem, man was I wrong.  I also think Danza is a bad example when comparing him to AD.  Danza had a driving line, every race was better than the prior race.  Can\'t say the same about AD.  Destin and Revolutionary might be better examples since your are hoping for a pair up.  Still percentage wise I think a 2-4 regression is far more likely.

[toppled]

Danza was not a big move up, as you will not see him included among big jump ups in the original post. He improved only 3.75 points off his 2YO top.  My cutoff is 4.0 after all data analysis. He had a 2YO number that was good enough for me to consider him an underneath contender that year.  

Destin finished 6th and regressed 2.75 points in the Derby, he\'s a great example of the Pletcher jump up since he moved 7.75 points off his prior top and regressed those 2.75 points. If Always Dreaming regresses those same 2.75 points, he\'s not winning.

[sekrah]

You can say it about AD if you adjust his Allowance race, which was monumentally slow.  With fair adjustments, the horse has never gone backwards.

[FrankD.]

Let\'s take a look at AD:
10, 5, 9, 9, 0.5-neg
If we adjust his maiden win and his alw race 4.5 & 5 points then he has never gone backwards.

I didn\'t get your figure makers poetic license plate number. WTF are you talking about?