Updating 4 point Derby jump up results

[ajkreider]

The figure is the figure - and the number doesn\'t care how the race was run.

But bettors should care about how the race was run.

[jimbo66]

Sekrah,

Anybody that has been around this game for more than a few months is not going to be surprised by a Pletcher move up at Gulfstream.

It happens.

When he runs well outside of Florida, or in the Derby, that is a story.

He tried \"new things\" last year.  Shit, I bought in.  I had Destin and Outwork as \"C\"s on my multi race bets.  He gave Destin 7 weeks (or more? ) to recover from the big number.  He shipped Outwork to NY instead of his usual florida regimen.

Same result.

[TGJB]

Every time I get the urge to jump in on one of these strings, I say my mantra... seminar. Seminar.

[TheBull]

Sekrah,

Just to play devil\'s advocate.....if that allowance win was so much bigger than the numbers say, to the point where we should move it up 4-5 pts as you said earlier, wouldnt AD be coming off multiple tops and therefore multiple big efforts? If the 5 at two set him back, then I\'d think running in the 4-5 range followed by his Fl Derby is a big two race stretch. So why would you read AD as a horse who is just coming off one huge effort? The 9 in the alw race cant be a 9 when it is convenient for you but a 4-5 when it supports your other arguments

[Tale Of Ekati]

Can I share something with you TGJB,whatever you say in any of these threads, we will still all get the seminar. Believe me.

[sekrah]

So because you used Destin and Outwork (two horses I did not care for by the way) that means Pletcher will never win another Derby? Alrighy.

[jimbo66]

Sekrah,

Yes, that is what I said.  

One of us (you) has been on the board too long to be posting dumb statements like \"your read on Always Dreamin\'s pattern is that he hasn\'t reached a level yet\".  A horse with a 5 - 9 - 9 - 0 line.  Yes, the 4 point backward move wasn\'t an effort, the pair was also not an effort, etc.

TAP\'s record in the derby, along with a disgusting pattern for the horse, is enough to toss a 5-1 shot.  

I mention that I played Outwork and Destin to point out that I am not going to toss any pletcher at any price.  Those horses were 15-1 or so.  With much better looking sheets than Always Dreamin, who will be about one third that price. And IMO there was a reason to believe that perhaps TAP was changing his MO a bit, giving Destin more time and having OUtworks\'s last two efforts in Tampa and NY instead of Gulfstream, where TAP gets all kind of figures and move ups.

[TGJB]

\"Jane, you ignorant slut...\"

Okay, enough with \"dumb\" etc.

Meanwhile, I can\'t take it. Let\'s say you give AD his 2yo top in the March 4 race. How does that make him look now any different than Materiality and all the others did?

And I have a question. I\'ve been told Pletcher liked this one better than his other 3yos all winter. But then why wasn\'t he running him for Derby points in March, instead of a nw1x? He really was going to put all his eggs in one Florida Derby basket?

[FrankD.]

Didn\'t you read sekrah\'s post?
It\'s been a winter long TAP conspiracy to throw off figure makers and change the way sheets are read. BRILLIANT - for Miff when he looks in

[TheBull]

It almost feels like TAP is really babying this one. He had so many options across the country not just Fla, it is almost as if TAP didn\'t want to risk any issues by having him ship. Not to mention he seemed to intentionally not want to bump heads with top horses twice before the Derby, as evidence by that Alw spot after the Tampa. The horse must be a little on the fragile side maybe?? Either way, the babying they have done with this horse tells me all I need to know with regards to how he will react to that big effort plus the ship, new track. 100k fans, increased testing etc.

[mjellish]

Sek,

I agree with regarding slow early pace race shapes.  They wreak havoc on figures.  But saying the horse \"could\" have run faster is a lot different than saying he \"did\" run faster.  Which is that you are saying?

If you\'re saying he could have run faster and therefore you\'re adjusting his number down for the ALW race then I have to say I completely disagree and you are walking on dangerous ground.  While I agree it is probable that he could have run faster, the fact is he didn\'t.  So in my opinion it\'s a pretty big stretch to try to justify his pattern by saying he could have run faster, so I am therefore adjusting his number down for ALW race although I know he didn\'t run that fast, and this then makes his pattern more useful looking to me and now I can bet him.  To me no matter how you slice and dice it his pattern is terrible.  If you want to make a case for betting the horse I say just ignore the pattern altogether and make a statement more like, \"The hell with his pattern.  He\'s fast enough to be a contender, he\'s won three in a row, seems to like distance, has a good mind and if he repeats his last with a decent trip he is right there.\"  In the past that opinion hasn\'t turned out to be right with colts like this who have only run one race that gives them a number that puts them in the mix (think Sinister Minister, etc.) Never know though, this could be the year.  

If you are saying you think the number for the ALW race is wrong then that is a different case altogether and I would be interested in hearing why you think that.  My own opinion is the number is right.  He ran what he ran.  He beat nothing, the horses he beat have come back to beat nothing, to my knowledge no one has come out of that race to run significantly faster and make TG want to go back and question the race, etc.

[ruthlessman]

You could look at his (Always Dreaming) sheet much like Arrogates sheet after the Travers.
Never asked to run prior to that.
I will say this. After watching the Fla Derby and his workouts leading up to that race, the 0 is real. The 9\'s do not reflect his talent. I\'m not saying the number isn\'t accurate, but it  does not reflect his ability.
I think this horse is real real nice.

[TheBull]

Except Arrogate is an all time great horse....once in a lifetime type stuff to get one like that. Pretty low probability that AD is on that level even pre-BC and Dubai. Youre also forgetting the difference in trainer too. One who excels at big races like these, and one who doesnt.

If I have to go as far as to compare the horse to Arrogate to find a reason to bet him, that probably means he isn\'t worth the bet. The only comparison I see is that both horses\' name start with A.

[ruthlessman]

I don\'t believe I compared him to Arrogate. Clearly would be foolish.
Sheet pattern similar up to and including Travers.

[TheBull]

Ruthless,

Perhaps I was bit over the top.....I dont think you were comparing the two, I think you were comparing their sheets at certain points at time. Nor do I think your post made it seem like you were saying he was a must bet because of it. All I was trying to say was I see a horse coming off a monster effort relative to his sheet, earned at GP under Pletcher\'s care. While trying to project another big effort, if I have to say \"Well Arrogate did it, so why can\'t AD?\", then it is probably a sign the horse is not worth a bet at 6/1. That\'s all.