Updating 4 point Derby jump up results

[TGAB]

Just to correct the record the table referred to in the 2016 seminar is \"Effort Distribution in Kentucky Derby 1995-2015\"

[TempletonPeck]

Sorry, poor use of quotation marks.

Just wanted to distinguish that those statistics discussed all starters vs. only those coming off a bounce/off/X/whatever.

[jimbo66]

Acutally, not its not.  Not even particularly close to Arrogate\'s sheet.

Arrogate hadn\'t gone backwards 9 - 4 -4 4

Always Dreamin is 5 - 9 - 9 - 0


YEs, Always Dreaming is like a cross between Arrogate, Secretariat, WAr Adirmal and Spectacular Bid.

[ruthlessman]

Arrogate 4  4  -5
Dreaming 9  9  0
Similar pattern?

[toppled]

More like a cross among Devil May Care, Destin, Bandini and Charming Kitten.  
 
All 4 had the big new top in their final prep before the Derby. All 4 trained by TAP.

[Strike]

Does anyone know what Animal Kingdom\'s numbers were before the KY Derby?

[jimbo66]

Nope Ruthless.  First off, it is 9 - 4 - 4 - 4.

You can\'t cherry pick which numbers you look at.

The fact that AD ran a good number then backed up significantly to the 9 and then ran another 9 before moving forwards is very different than a horse that had never moved backwards and had shown strength by running from 9 to the 4 then paired the four TWO MORE TIMES.

[jimbo66]

The data is all here on the website.  In the archives

12 - 8 - 7 - 3

[Tavasco]

His best number was running the last 1/2 mile faster (raw) than all other derby winners except secretariat\'s 47.1.

He ran a jump up top in the spiral of 3 I think?

Was considered too slow and a toss in the seminar. Which makes sense he was previously slow but improving. Second successive jump up which sort of requires the horse be initially slow.

I can still remember during the down the stretch call thinking blankly who is Animal Kingdom?

His sheet is in the archive. c/b 2011.

[sekrah]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sekrah,
>
> Yes, that is what I said.  
>
> One of us (you) has been on the board too long to
> be posting dumb statements like \"your read on
> Always Dreamin\'s pattern is that he hasn\'t reached
> a level yet\".  A horse with a 5 - 9 - 9 - 0 line.
> Yes, the 4 point backward move wasn\'t an effort,
> the pair was also not an effort, etc.
>
> TAP\'s record in the derby, along with a disgusting
> pattern for the horse, is enough to toss a 5-1
> shot.  
>
> I mention that I played Outwork and Destin to
> point out that I am not going to toss any pletcher
> at any price.  Those horses were 15-1 or so.  With
> much better looking sheets than Always Dreamin,
> who will be about one third that price. And IMO
> there was a reason to believe that perhaps TAP was
> changing his MO a bit, giving Destin more time and
> having OUtworks\'s last two efforts in Tampa and NY
> instead of Gulfstream, where TAP gets all kind of
> figures and move ups.



We see things differently.  No worries.

[sekrah]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sek,
>
> I agree with regarding slow early pace race
> shapes.  They wreak havoc on figures.  But saying
> the horse \"could\" have run faster is a lot
> different than saying he \"did\" run faster.  Which
> is that you are saying?
>
> If you\'re saying he could have run faster and
> therefore you\'re adjusting his number down for the
> ALW race then I have to say I completely disagree
> and you are walking on dangerous ground.  While I
> agree it is probable that he could have run
> faster, the fact is he didn\'t.  So in my opinion
> it\'s a pretty big stretch to try to justify his
> pattern by saying he could have run faster, so I
> am therefore adjusting his number down for ALW
> race although I know he didn\'t run that fast, and
> this then makes his pattern more useful looking to
> me and now I can bet him.  To me no matter how you
> slice and dice it his pattern is terrible.  If you
> want to make a case for betting the horse I say
> just ignore the pattern altogether and make a
> statement more like, \"The hell with his pattern.
> He\'s fast enough to be a contender, he\'s won three
> in a row, seems to like distance, has a good mind
> and if he repeats his last with a decent trip he
> is right there.\"  In the past that opinion hasn\'t
> turned out to be right with colts like this who
> have only run one race that gives them a number
> that puts them in the mix (think Sinister
> Minister, etc.) Never know though, this could be
> the year.  
>
> If you are saying you think the number for the ALW
> race is wrong then that is a different case
> altogether and I would be interested in hearing
> why you think that.  My own opinion is the number
> is right.  He ran what he ran.  He beat nothing,
> the horses he beat have come back to beat nothing,
> to my knowledge no one has come out of that race
> to run significantly faster and make TG want to go
> back and question the race, etc.

Why do I believe AD could have run faster in the ALW? A horse\'s condition does not improve 9 points in just one month. Effort can change and fluctuate that much between two races in a month, but not condition.  A horse can drop 9+ points in conditioning in a month (injury, illness, etc.), but a horse is not adding 9 points in conditioning in a single four weeks. Based on my studies, I believe it takes a healthy (but idle) horse anywhere from 45-60 days to reach their peak condition, 28 is too short. If a figure looks out of line based on subsequent races, I will often go back and put in a condition number for the previous race.

Outside of using the TG figs as my starting point, there\'s nothing scientific about how I handicap. It\'s total feel for each race they ran. I bet I adjust more than anyone here based on pace and trip.  Over the years I\'ve become less hesitant of using horses making these massive leaps if the conditions are right.

This discussion is kind of fascinating considering that Always Dreaming will certainly not be my key horse in the Derby, not at 5-1.  I just don\'t think he\'s as bad looking as some think he is. Any horse who has a race fast enough to win it has to be taken seriously, and he does.

[sekrah]

TheBull Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Except Arrogate is an all time great horse....once
> in a lifetime type stuff to get one like that.
> Pretty low probability that AD is on that level
> even pre-BC and Dubai. Youre also forgetting the
> difference in trainer too. One who excels at big
> races like these, and one who doesnt.
>
> If I have to go as far as to compare the horse to
> Arrogate to find a reason to bet him, that
> probably means he isn\'t worth the bet. The only
> comparison I see is that both horses\' name start
> with A.

Arrogate is a once in a generation horse, agreed.  But you don\'t need to be a once in a generation horse to do what AD would need to do to win the Derby.  There\'s many examples I can think of early 3yos making huge forward moves and then staying there.

[sekrah]

TheBull Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Except Arrogate is an all time great horse....once
> in a lifetime type stuff to get one like that.
> Pretty low probability that AD is on that level
> even pre-BC and Dubai. Youre also forgetting the
> difference in trainer too. One who excels at big
> races like these, and one who doesnt.
>
> If I have to go as far as to compare the horse to
> Arrogate to find a reason to bet him, that
> probably means he isn\'t worth the bet. The only
> comparison I see is that both horses\' name start
> with A.

Arrogate is a once in a generation horse, agreed.  But you don\'t need to be a once in a generation horse to do what AD would need to do to win the Derby.  There\'s many examples I can think of early 3yos making huge forward moves and then staying there.  I just much prefer ADs line over a horse that probably needs a 3-4 pt new top in the Derby.  The big Derby top is what\'s truly rare in this race, not pairing up.

[Strike]

So, just wondering who has a pattern like this one. He went off 20-1 and won easily. He had a spectacular work at Churchill before the race. Might not be a bad plan to look at a similar pattern with a great pre-race work at Churchill (since this is a very tough spread race) if there is one.

[ruthlessman]

Sekrah
I agree with a lot of what you are saying.
I do not believe he improved 9 points. On the numbers he did.But he won those races with much in the tank. That is what I believe. I may be wrong, but I don\'t think so. So, in my opinion, when he runs with better he will show it in the figures. I don\'t think you can make a living with this approach, but sometimes you have to trust your gut.His workouts reinforced my opinion leading into the Fla. Derby. His next workout at Churchill will tell me a lot. Is he worth 5 or 6-1?
I am not sure.
I also believe Pletcher is tweaking his approach as Sekrah said in an earlier post. Destin was handled in a different manner than what Pletcher had been doing. This horse differently as well.He realizes he has to make changes to have success in this race.I think he is doing that.
I posted prior to the Fla Derby about this horses workouts and how impressive they were. On the numbers he was nowhere near a play I would ever make. But I did. Sometimes you have to go by a feel. It isn\'t always scientific.
A few years back I had Animal Kingdom. That was based on his workout prior to the Derby I saw on \"The Works\".
Probably the best work that year the week before the Derby.
Numbers would not have put me on him. I believe he won the Spiral on Synthetic earning a 3.
 99% of the time I am strictly a numbers player. I rely on Tgraph and Timeform.
This is a real racehorse.
We all have ideas about this race and I am just sharing mine.
Good luck to all.