McCraken

[Topcat]

Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I like the story. Thanks.
>
> When the subject of value came up I wanted to tell
> the story of Abe, Sol & the elephant but its just
> too long.
>
> Instead, for the many music & music video fans
> I\'ll just point out that Kirsten Dunst has oddly
> covered \"Turning Japanese\" on You Tube! Of course
> she also did Fargo last season so she\'s more
> versatile than I would have first guessed.
>
> Wha???
>
> And Two more weeks?


Two more weeks until those lovely Oaks/Derby undercards.

Pray the weather holds.

[richiebee]

Tabasco:

If you are a fan of Ms. Dunst, born a few miles south of Bed Room Downs in Point Pleasant, NJ, hope you have seen her in the 2011 flick Melancholia.

The versatility you mention is a beautiful thing, like a speedy sort of horse being taught to rate in the hands of an experienced trainer and rider. My contrarian Derby selection has not been mentioned in a single thread and (it\'s early yet) I\'m loving it.

[Tavasco]

richie:

I have seen Melancholia and it was memorable. Surely well titled. Loving a good mystery I am still contemplating your clues. I have a suspicion and need to do a little research before accusations.

[jerry]

The most likely horse to hit the board is Practical Joke.

Note: That\'s coming from someone who keyed Perfect Drift in the Belmont.

[bellsbendboy]

Jimbo, not sure you grasp how dirt races are run.  As enlightenment, very few dirt animals accelerate, in fact each eighth mile is almost always slower than the previous eighth.

As for McCRAKEN, he may be \"slowish\" to you, yet he runs his eighths in twelves.

Among many attributes this Ghostzapper colt worked super this morning. Check out the video! The one to beat twelve days out!

bbb

[BitPlayer]

And when Irap went the last 3 furlongs of the Blue Grass in 38-1/5, McCraken lost a half length.

I acknowledge that McCraken missed some time, that Ian Wilkes was using the Blue Grass as a prep, that McCraken may win the Derby, and that people who know horse flesh sometimes know things that don\'t show up in speed figures.  [That is, for example, why Always Dreaming went off at 5-2 in the Florida Derby.]

I also think, however, that sometimes horses get reputations that get ahead of what they have demonstrated on the track and consequently get overbet.  The horses that McCraken beat last fall have not proven to be the cream of the crop (how many are even in the Derby field?), and the ones he has beaten this year will be longshots on Derby Day.

I\'d be surprised if the Derby seminar doesn\'t identify McCraken as a horse who is likely to run well.  The question is, how short a price am I willing to take on a horse that will need to run better than he ever has, and may have to overcome significant ground loss, in order to win.

[Tavasco]

A broader perspective could be they have already exceeded expectations.

My concern - where does this horse win the race? Unlikely to dominate the first fraction or an easy pace through the 1/2 mile. I would expect his best c/b seen on the second turn in traffic going wide to catch up with many proven to be able to run a strong mile from the front. The Hernandez fans imagine him as MTB skimming the rail and/or splitting horses to find a clear path home.

His chance is then to relish the added distance and come steam rolling home jumping up while all those in front of him don\'t. Probable that one of the contenders will run just that race McC\'s a possibility although I think the shortest priced one.

IMO, Calumet is a more likely story. Now leaning toward Wynn\'s Match Up Bets as simpler propositions. Thanks to the Face man!

Gunnevera +105
vs
McCraken -135

DRF Owner Article --->Whitham Thoroughbreds

[pizzalove]

You know I am starting to think the Bluegrass this year could end up being one of the worst derby preps ever.  Got to see J Boys Echo work on Sunday and absolutely nothing special about this animal at all.  

Saw McCracken the next day and nothing special here either.  Disagree with Welsch comment.  I felt McCracken was beat right from the git go and could never catch up until workmate pulled up on gallop out and then McCracken went by.  Not an impressive work mate either.

Have seen Tapwrit but only once and he didn\'t work or run and that was a while ago.  Impressive looker.  Big striking animal.

Also saw Untrapped work and he was impressive. Would of missed most of this workout had my friend not bumped me to pay attention.  Also striking imposing animal.  (Jesus these Tapits!!).  Not impressed with Untrapped on any of his races however.

Hence was an excellent workout and he looks like a winner.  Ran fast and did it easy.  Looks to me to be dead fit and smooth.  Much the best of what I have seen.  One of the best workouts I had ever seen in my life was Union Rags at Keeneland and this Hence was close to that if not equal.  Solid horse.  Looked ready to run that day.

Also saw Lookin at Lee and he is a worn out tired horse.  No energy.  Dull work.  Wanted to go back to the barn.  Scratch.

I don\'t see McCracken or J Boys Echo or Lookin at Lee having any chance to even hit exotics.  Hence is a different story and untrapped could hit exotics.  At least he is moving in the right direction.

Wont see any more works.  My friend Mark will be at Churchill most of next week and back home before Oaks day.

I cant remember needing the seminar more than I do this year.  Really looking forward to it.

[jbelfior]

I \'ve seen Untrapped enough to safely assume that he wants no part of a 1 1/4 at this stage. No improvement (numbers wise) as a 3yo.

Tough to like, but he\'ll be 30-1.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[FrankD.]

Pizza,

I simply have no idea what so ever what workout you were watching?

I\'m just going to leave it at that and will not debate or respond.

It seems the Washington phenomenon of alternative facts has come to the TG board.
People randomly take points of figures to make their points, imaginary sheets that mirror a previous runner, now we can see what we want to see.....

Frank D.

[TGJB]

Frank, I would love to hear the implied workout opinion. Not kidding.

[SoCalMan2]

TGJB Wrote:
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> Frank, I would love to hear the implied workout
> opinion. Not kidding.


What is the implied workout opinion?

[TGJB]

He implied he disagreed with the workout assessment.

[fasteddie]

Don\'t agree about the Blue Grass....think Thunder Gulch. His BG was awful, as the race was run with a nothing pace and he ran accordingly. Got a great post, pace, and ride to win the big one.

IF \'Joke draws a wide post, he is the most likely winner, at a price. I like horses with solid 2yo foundations, and the match race with Syndegaard knocked him out.

He is recovered, and coming forward at the right time. McC IS the real deal, and his CD form speaks volumes!

[FrankD.]

That McCracken was \"beat from the get go\". That was as impressive a gallop out as you would ever want to see. Hernandez practically had to strangle him to pull him up. Not to mention that a lot more folks than Welsch were very impressed with the work.

Whether any of this means anything, IMHO I thought the said assessment was out in left field more like the upper deck.....