McCraken

[fasteddie]

The TRIP factor is affected dramatically as field size increases; I am speaking from both a race quality AND betting standpoint.

Look, I play more grass than dirt because A) field size is greater on average, and B) better mutual potential. All I am saying is that for our greatest race, there is a point of diminishing returns, from BOTH a racing and wagering viewpoint.

Just look at English racing; extremely large fields in wide straights that often break into 2 or three groups, run tactically. Just look at how our grass stakes racing has changed to mostly even-paced early and fast final fractions.

I have seen too many good to great horses never getting a chance to show their best, and often, it had little to do with figs.

[big18741]

I have no problem betting Hernandez in the Derby.

Solid Churchill regular and he\'s won some big races in the past.
BC Classic,Whitney on Ft Larned among them.

Can\'t knock either of his rides on Girven in the Risen Star and LA Derby.

[jbrown007]

How\'s he saving ground? Expect a new top for McCracken but even that could be short unless he is able to save a lot of ground.

[ajkreider]

If you think he runs the best number, bet him to win.  For at least a decade, the top number has won the Derby regardless of trip.  Exotics are another matter.

[P-Dub]

You can say that about most of them, they have to work out a trip. In a 20 horse field, do you really think you can predict who gets a trip and who doesn\'t??

If I think a horse will run a number good enough to win, I\'ll take my chances.

[big18741]

He\'s somewhere in between Borel and Rosario as far as saving ground which doesn\'t really answer your the question.

The horses normal style (not the Bluegrass) puts him in the back half of this field into the first turn.If I had to guess maybe between 12th and 17th.

For sure he\'s in front of the three stone closers-Lee,Sonneteer and Gunn.
If he draws closer to the rail no worries with saving ground on the first turn.

Can\'t worry about the 2nd turn.