ROTW Hawthorne

[belmont3]

Very pleased to see Frank D is up bright and early posting on the forum.
Must have been a slow night in Clifton park  

As to the Hawthorne Derby selection:

The selection of our own Fairmount (St. Louie Guy) as the key?? I can guarantee Fairmount will show up for this race on short rest or no rest at all!!
Should be one interesting post race urinalysis!!

With that in mind, and in all seriousness, the rationale for this pick.

Starting with the classic TGJB question:

What do you like about this race?

Is the dominant opinion:


1) That the Pletch Hedge Fund is a slow rat who is no faster than this field and likely way overbet?

2) Or is it that Fairmount just ran a new top, has # power, is likely to run?  

3) Or a combination of both?

I have reservations on keying Fairmount. (nothing personal but I saw you sprint to the betting windows at the SPA and doubt you can get 1 1/8.

I think the line is apparent.
6 3/4 top ....reaction to 9,
6 3/4 pair of top....reaction to an 8 3/4.
Break through to a new top of 5 3/4.....short rest.....why not play to react??

Is the break through to a 1 point new top enough to expect a pair on short rest?
Or is it that the  anticipated odds at 6-1 ML and the total # power relative to the field enough?

What if Fairmount were 2 -1?
Would you still like hm or would he then become Unfairmount?  

Maybe I am overthinking this one, but just looking to delve a bit more into the thinking behind this selection.  

Somehow, I think Richie and Frank will offer their insights into making our St. Looie Guy the ROTW choice.

Bob

[TreadHead]

There used to be a time on this board where we would say 4th race in 8 weeks off a new top is likely to be bounce inducing.

Now we are tagging them as the win bet apparently.  My, how the times have changed!

The Pletcher horse will clearly try to steal this on the front.  The only horse that can even remotely attempt to go with him is Stand and Cheer and he wants absolutely no part of a 46sec opening fraction.  He will be out of the picture 5f into the race, if not sooner.

Given that Hedge Fund:
- Is a sibling to Stanford
- Shipped from an elevation of practically below sea level to ~4000 ft just a couple days prior to Sunland Derby
- Has a good looking sheet in terms of development/progression

And that others out of the Sunland Derby have come back and raced well...

I\'m much more favorable on his chances of winning this race.  Certainly agree the odds aren\'t likely to be there, but unless the track is extremely tiring and not favorable to front runners, he\'s certainly going to get the on-the-lead rail trip that will require someone to likley race wider and have to catch him from behind.

Given SLG\'s pedigree is decidedly sprinter and he is overraced this year, I prefer others in the closing role if that\'s where you want to go.  Mr. Misunderstood looks good to me, if you prefer to play someone to catch the speed.

[FrankD.]

What do you like about the race? Not very much.

It pains me to see an Illinois Derby card soooooo bad. A pair of 40K stakes is the undercard.

The Sunland Derby has become every sharp guys key race, so much so Beyer upgraded his figure by 4 points on Hence. It was a nice race but the field does not resemble the 87 Travers to me.

The TAP horse will be grossly over bet and is not as fast as most. Becker is certainly no secret high win %, low ROI. If you\'re going that route between the 2 flip a coin or take the better price.

Brenden Walsh hasn\'t sent many across Cicero Ave, why would he with their purses?
A lightly raced recent graduate, stretching his legs a bit off a pair. The Factor\'s though a very small sample don\'t seem to mind some distance. Keenland has NW1 in their book for 70K plus, a much easier spot and he would need to run 2nd here to beat the winners share in Lexington. The rail, a double digit price and not a huge jump off his pair to be in the midst of this one, he and Graham do some pretty good work together.

I\'m wondering if Bill O\'Reilly is backing The Factor with Rupert Murdoch\'s go away money?

Good luck,

Frank D.

[Fairmount1]

A ROTW generating discussion in the midst of Derby season!  Glad to see the board is still alive!  I have to shoot down a 1-9 shot right now Bob.....while no one will believe this, I have never even tried/used/consumed/or been accidentally contaminated by drugs in my life so my UA would come back CLEAN except for some occasional alcohol residue.  Now that\'s another story.......Heinken\'s at Sar are looking really nice right about now!!

It seems the Becker barn has their horses out partying at night batting 44% at the Hawthorne meet.  His only graded stakes I\'m aware of from memory is Hogy\'s G3 win in the Hanshin at Arlington in \'15.  At 1 1/8 miles I just can\'t see a Kanthros horse taking it as Becker\'s best work is with sprinters.  SLG\'s last was in a four horse field and he was 30 cents on the dollar.  I liked him at OP three back as a TG lurker could confirm but I can\'t see it today.  

I prefer Stand and Cheer of the Becker entries as Warrior\'s Club and Resiliency would both be contenders in this race.  But his ceiling is underneath.  Victor Santiago rides St. Louie Guy which is Becker\'s go to guy but Emigh has long been there in Chicago for the Becker charges.  If you are curious, William Stiritz the owner of Becker\'s horses, owns Fairmount Park and Becker has only trained for Stiritz after learning under Terry Gestes who likely would have trouble flying airplanes........ Anyway, Becker is a monster Blues fan, a pretty good guy about sharing thoughts on his horses, and would be telling the Sharks and Rangers fans on the board to shove it although P-Dub would be nervous about me personally as I don\'t really enjoy hockey.  My guess is Becker would say both horses are doing well and he is taking a shot here.  

Robby comes in to ride Hollywood Handsome as his only mount of the day.  I see a foward move coming off the 7.5\'s coming in out of the Girvin-won La Derby.  I also see Hedge Fund as a light use like TreadHead but I won\'t dial up any win tickets with him at what will certainly be a short price.  Mr. Misunderstood beat Don\'t Split Tens who is a well thought of 3yo turfer for a guy from Fairmount and Mr Misunderstood beat him by 9 in the off the turf event.  It was impressive enough for Cox to place this one here on dirt also off of 7\'s.  Those are the three I\'ll focus in on below plus FrankD\'s Walsh/Graham horse.  

If you put a gun to my head and said find me a winner on this card and connect it to the Ill Derby, I would dial up the All button in Ill Derby with the 3, PURGING THE STONE, in the daily double, then a stronger punch with #1, #2, #6 and the #7 with the 3.  Then one last punch 2, 6, and 7 with 3.  The 3 in the sixth is the best horse at Fairmount Park these days, won a stakes as a 2yo at Haw, should love the 6.5 furlongs, and there is a monster amount of speed for him to run at (1,2,4,5,6,7 have all shown shown speed in their last race or two).  I\'ll know from his exercise rider later on if he is cranked for this later today.  I buy him a beer from time to time and he gives me some inside scoop from time to time, an upstate NY move I learned after my Travers trip last year.  At 12-1, he is my play today at Haw assuming I hear a good report.  I\'ll save with an exacta underneath the 5 as the only speed that can put away the rest and possibly hold my horse from winning.  The result certainly isn\'t etched in stone but I see #3 as a certain exacta finisher at solid odds and potential winner.

Best of luck today.  

PS-Bullard\'s Alley is an interesting horse at Kee if you are dreading the \"Good\" or \"soft\" turf who relishes the longer marathon distances.  20-1 on the M/L and you will definitely want him to hit your exacta or tri if he doesn\'t pull off the upset.  I would have been at Keeneland today to play today\'s cash tourney followed by Thunder in Louisville tonight but the 51 degrees and certain rain keeps me at Fairmount Park.  I\'m certain Clifton Park is much, much nicer.......

[FrankD.]

Fair,

I would have been a bridge jumper on your substance abuse last night when you sent me a text saying you liked Irat in the Derby🎱

[Al Caught Up]

When did Hawthorne switch from the artificial surface back to dirt?

[FrankD.]

Al,

To my knowledge they never switched to poly, always been dirt. They run trotters their as well. Arlington went poly.

[Al Caught Up]

Thanks, I appreciate it

[Furious Pete]

Really, they run trotters on the same ground as the thoroughbreds?? That\'s really interesting, I thought trotters ran on much harder dirt. They do here, anyway.

[FrankD.]

When Illinois had horse racing Balmoral, Fairmount,WashingtonPark,Hawthorne,Sportsmans & Arlington ran trotters at one time or another. I\'m sure their was a bit of track work to be done in the change over.

[Furious Pete]

Cheers, that\'s unheard of where I come from, for trotting and ordinary racing to share the same track/surface. Closest thing we\'ve had must be when a trainer got fed up with his very talented trotter always galopping in his races, so he entered him in a stakes race for ordinary race horses instead. He did get bet down to favorite and created a lot of fuzz, but finished nowhere. How would one interpret that start in sheet theory?

[P-Dub]

FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What do you like about the race? Not very much.
>
> It pains me to see an Illinois Derby card soooooo
> bad. A pair of 40K stakes is the undercard.
>
> The Sunland Derby has become every sharp guys key
> race, so much so Beyer upgraded his figure by 4
> points on Hence. It was a nice race but the field
> does not resemble the 87 Travers to me.
>
> The TAP horse will be grossly over bet and is not
> as fast as most. Becker is certainly no secret
> high win %, low ROI. If you\'re going that route
> between the 2 flip a coin or take the better
> price.
>
> Brenden Walsh hasn\'t sent many across Cicero Ave,
> why would he with their purses?
> A lightly raced recent graduate, stretching his
> legs a bit off a pair. The Factor\'s though a very
> small sample don\'t seem to mind some distance.
> Keenland has NW1 in their book for 70K plus, a
> much easier spot and he would need to run 2nd here
> to beat the winners share in Lexington. The rail,
> a double digit price and not a huge jump off his
> pair to be in the midst of this one, he and Graham
> do some pretty good work together.
>
> I\'m wondering if Bill O\'Reilly is backing The
> Factor with Rupert Murdoch\'s go away money?
>
> Good luck,
>
> Frank D.

Hedge Fund obviously has a good chance on the lead, but if I\'m trying to tag him late I would go with Mr Misunderstood. Nice pair up, could go forward, and a great last fraction. I can\'t take too short of a price on him tho.

St Louie guy ran a great number 1st route, can sit off and run them down late. Hard to disagree with the ROTW assessment. Depending on the odds, its those 2 I\'m focusing on. Not sure this will end up being the greatest race to wager on, but the tote board will decide that. Frank, I have to agree with your opinion here.

BTW, I found video of O\'Reilly reacting to losing a photo finish.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qy-Y3HJNU_s

[richiebee]

FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> When Illinois had horse racing Balmoral,
> Fairmount,WashingtonPark,Hawthorne,Sportsmans &
> Arlington ran trotters at one time or another. I\'m
> sure their was a bit of track work to be done in
> the change over.


Frank:

Five yard penalty, no loss of down, you forgot Cahokia Downs (Cka), which raced
thoroughbreds and jugheads over a 5/8 mile oval, though not at the same time.

[FrankD.]

Where Tom Durkin launched his career, my BAD

[Al Caught Up]

And Dave Johnson, too.