KD 2017 - 2 Weeks Out

[P-Dub]

I am absolutely astonished at the love Always Dreaming is receiving. The fact that Sekrah has interest in him is the only reason I\'m giving him a second look. I have a lot of respect for Sekrah\'s opinion. I won\'t mention the other person on that bandwagon.

I\'m not a slave to numbers, and understand there are other factors that play a part in a race. I love surface/distance switches and equipment changes. Have hit some nice scores on those types when the numbers say otherwise. But I have to say, IMO its a real stretch to adjust his figures to make him relevant from a TG/pattern perspective. Doesn\'t come close to his 2YO top and then last race takes a massive jump forward. Even if you make allowances for the slower races, and that\'s a big stretch, I just can\'t play a horse like this.

I don\'t like the favorites much at all. Classic Empire ran that big number in the BC and still hasn\'t gotten back to it. Don\'t like the pattern at all with AD. IWC comes from the Wood that a) hasn\'t produced much for quite awhile prepping for this race and b) comes in off a huge race after a clunker. Has any horse run well with that pattern?

I\'ve liked McCraken for some time, and while a bit slow has a very nice pattern. Practical Joke is another that to me has a great sheet and a bit faster than McCracken. Gunnevera popped that big one two back, and I like the fact he paired his 2YO top first out before that big performance. Backed up to the same first out number last time. Not familiar with the conditioner, but Gunnevera has shown that he has more than enough ability to take this down.

There are others that I like to fill underneath, but its these three that are my main focus. If I had to pick one out of this bunch right now, it would probably be Practical Joke. He will be a very fair price, and I\'ve read plenty here about his pedigree and how he looks. Eye test vs sheet. And with the way Chad Brown has been going, is it time to put a Derby win on his resume??  Post position and Derby week works will finalize my decision.

I just looked up the Dual Qualifiers for this year. I know its not quite in vogue as it used to be, but the 3 I mentioned are 3 of the 6 DC for this year. The other in the race is Gormley. I\'m not a pedigree expert at all, and have heard some of you mention PJ\'s sprinty pedigree, but wouldn\'t a Dosage of 3.00 suggest a pedigree that is good enough relative to distance??

[sekrah]

I wouldn\'t say I\'m on AD\'s bandwagon.  I just don\'t view him as negative as others.  Some have used \"Easy toss\" and I think that\'s outrageous. In the ABCD categories of my value, he\'s one of my \"B\" horse at 7-1 or whatever he\'ll go off, and to me a must use in any sort of exotic combo.

[P-Dub]

Bandwagon a poor choice of words Sek. Didn\'t mean to imply you were all in on that one.

[Agastache]

Re: Irish War Cry

I suppose I would be taking a bit of creative license here, but what if we draw a line through IWC\'s Fountain Of Youth? Would you be more inclined to view the horse as a standout?  That is kind of the stance I am taking here.

IWC is a May foal, so he\'ll be turning 3 during Derby week, thus he\'s still maturing. Plus, he is being managed by a future Hall of Famer conditioner.

Coming out of the Wood is not an issue to me. Another Derby winner prepped in the Spiral Stakes on poly (that hadn\'t produced a Derby winner in a while) and that horse was also trained by Motion.

In Graham we trust.

[RICH]

that may foal thing hasn\'t been that good in the past, but I suppose not a big deal for some

[P-Dub]

The Wood comment wasn\'t the main reason, its just another fact.

Ignoring poor performances or adjusting races is a very slippery slope.

Why would we draw a line through that race?? How do we make the distinction on what races to ignore or adjust figures??

I would much rather go on the historical data and take my chances. IWC is a complete toss for me with that pattern. For those wishing to ignore the bad race and take a shot with him in 2 weeks, I wish you good luck. We won\'t be celebrating together if he wins.

[jbrown007]

I respect Graham a ton as a trainer but I do not agree with his 3 weeks between last race and workout coming into the derby. I believe the derby is such a grueling race and it is a bad approach for this specific race. It worked ok with Animal Kingdom because he got a lot of strong workouts into him before the derby with the extra spacing. This horse already ran poorly with one workout going into the fountain of youth. 1 workout going into the derby seems crazy. Have there been any horses in the past that you guys know of that had only one workout going into the derby and ran well? I haven\'t read anything on IWR besides that he looks good at barn.

[sekrah]

I think it tells you that if Graham had the choice he would be picking a better spot for this horse.

[johnnym]

How many works did AP have prior to the Derby?

[KeithB]

AP had one work between the Arkansas Derby and the Kentucky Derby.
He went a bullet 5F at Churchill in 58.40 six days before the race.
It was the WOW workout of all works before the Derby.

[belmont3]

Re/ Triple Crown Training regimens:

Found this article form a few years back.
Interesting:

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/training-for-the-triple-crown-how-times-have-changed/

[jerry]

What is the reason for drawing a line through the FOY? No equipment change. Not an off track. He just didn\'t show up. Not a big confidence booster.

[jerry]

I\'m with you. An ugly bounce followed by a big new top. That\'s pretty thin ice.

[johnnym]

Listening to a podcast and a point was made about the training track at Palm Meadows. Said it was a very quirky track and that IWC,CE & McCraken all trained there this winter and they all shipped out as well.

[mlnolan00]

I too was slightly worried about the workout pattern but Steve Haskin tweeted @ me and said the 3wks post-race is Graham\'s routine and that the colt will workout this Sat/Sun before vanning to Louisville Mon/Tues of next week.

I went back and looked and that\'s the schedule IWC was on for all his other starts.  For funsies, I also went back and looked at the workouts for Went the Day Well who ran 4th in KYD a few yrs back for GHM and he too was on the 3wks post-race regimen.

If you want to consider the Wood a huge improvement and a knockout effort, that\'s a valid assessment but I\'m willing to put my thumb over the FoY as a bad day (even Russ Westbrook has \'em) and consider that, ostensibly, Irish War Cry is the most consistently fast runner in this Derby at a route, period.

Classic Empire has a similar (and arguably less progressive) record but now we have two dud races instead of one, lost training time compared to almost none, and a value proposition of him being 3-1 to Irish War Cry\'s 7-1.

None of these horses are perfect but Irish War Cry has the value, the talent, the right style, and is in the right hands to win a Derby whereas bettors of Classic Empire will be eating chalk and holding their breath.

That\'s my rationale at this point, but I\'d be lying if I said I didn\'t want to see a fresh and frisky Irish following this final workout.