Molesap Wrote:
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> As a neophyte sheet reader, but long time
> handicapper I have some questions about Battalion
> Runner. I am still trying to figure things out in
> terms of reading patterns and wanted some feedback
> on this horse. He debuted in June, broke slow, had
> a ton of trouble and was green, yet still finished
> second getting a double digit number. Off for
> almost seven months, he came back on December 31
> where he easily won a GP 7f MSW race and earned a
> much lower figure. He then ran three points worse
> while winning a month later in a GP AOC, where the
> X could be considered a bounce. Pletcher gave him
> two months off and he returned as the Wood
> Memorial favorite, pairing his top that he earned
> on December 31 when running second.
>
> So my question is what do you consider his 2YO
> top? Is it as cut and dry that since he was a 2YO
> for 8 or so more hours that you use the December
> 31 number? Or do you use his debut as a 2YO where
> he had a ton of trouble in June and ended up on
> vacation for over half a year until his race on
> New Year’s Eve? I remember from some of the
> previous seminar’s that when considering the
> effort distribution for Kentucky Derby, horses
> that had less development from their 2YO top (less
> than 3 points I believe) fared better than those
> that had 3 or more points of development. So the
> question of the actual 2YO top seems pertinent as
> Battalion Runner will either have a huge number in
> terms of development if you use the debut race or
> he paired his 2YO top in the last if you use his
> second race. I was under the impression if it was
> the latter, pairing a 2YO top as a 3YO often
> signaled that the horse may be ready to move
> forward the next out. His top, which he has run
> twice, looks fast enough to possibly be
> competitive.
>
> I know there are many other factors to consider
> and I understand that Battalion Runner is a
> Pletcher, so it is tough to project him moving
> forward based on Pletcher’s history, but from a
> pure sheet read does he look like he has a chance?
> Any thoughts would be appreciated.
From my read, there is no cut and dried answer to your question and you need to have some flexibility in the read. As to his debut, it was almost in May. That is insanely early for a 2yo. A \"10\" with a lot of trouble in that context is a fairly nice figure....but i would caution against trying to adjust it to some figure to give you a 2yo top. Just know that the 10 is not a meaningful fig to try to use as a top or a reaction point.
As to the NYEve figure, you are right, a few hours later and that is a three year old number.
You have a set of problems in trying to figure a two year old top, but this is not unusual. Other times, you also have horses that never ran as a two year old and you also have horses that never reacted as a two year old and these horses create the same conundrum. For Battalion Runner, he could have a two year old top that makes his three year old improvement not too much or too much. Putting aside trainer and other external factors to the sheet read, one common answer is that if the horse is being ignored at the betting windows, give him the benefit of the doubt in the direction of a better 2yo top, if he is being overbet at the windows, then don\'t give him that benefit and assume a worse 2yo top.
From a different perspective, I would also consider looking at the horse as if the New Years Eve race was his debut. On the theory that anything he ran so early in his 2yo year is an unreliable figure, just ignore it, and read the sheet without it. Remember, there are 2yo in training sales in June. In theory, those horses\' workouts should show up on the sheet and how are you going to read that? We are all already ignoring early two year old efforts from these sales anyway, so why not also just ignore an extremely early 2yo race.
