Making a Case For, and Against, Gormley

[jbelfior]

Strong early pace that collapsed late. Huge field. Lot of bumping and wide trips.  

Wondering how the survivors come out of the SA Derby.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[P-Dub]

ajkreider Wrote:
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> Maybe he\'s not getting good mounts this year, but
> his win and top 3% are just meh - for a top guy.


Sounds like he may have gotten a good mount last year but lost it.

[jerry]

Maybe I\'m coming into this conversation late, but can someone remind me why we\'re talking about Gormley?

[SoCalMan2]

jerry Wrote:
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> Maybe I\'m coming into this conversation late, but
> can someone remind me why we\'re talked not about
> Gormley?


what?

[TGJB]

Second base.

[richiebee]

Tale Of Ekati Wrote:
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> Does anyone know when Gormley is scheduled to
> ship?
> He\'s still in California.
> Also, did Sheriff\'s ship Giacomo this late?
> I can\'t recall.

Gormley is scheduled to breeze today (Saturday) at SA, ship to CD May 1 (Monday).

[Tavasco]

I\'m struggling with the speed figures TG et al awarded in the Santa Anita Derby. Why is it so slow? Just a little faster than $7,500 claimers and crushed by $25K claimers. Double check of facts needed here because I\'m just estimating.

Los Angeles got a lot of rain in February approx 3 inches, which is a lot for that area albeit the rainy season. March had little precipitation and every day was virtually the same high of 70 low of 51. The race was the 8th of April with no precipitation in the first week. I doubt fog is measured.

Just explaining away all the SoCal contenders as a slow crop seems simple minded. Curious how other reconcile the anomaly?

[TheBull]

Simple minded? The horses out there are too slow, with the exception of a one mile slop race on Gormley\'s sheet. Why does there need to be some great in depth study about it? Just because it is the great Southern California? The crop this year is slow out there. Period. What needs to be reconciled? What does February\'s rainfall amount have to do with anything?

Derby time, this board is usually fun to read/post...lots of insight and handicapping and sheet reading. This year, more than any other, too many posts I read are about questioning the numbers and should we add/subtract points to this sheet or that sheet, or this race or that race. The Santa Anita Derby was slow. If the same horses ran the same day in Missouri and it was called the Fairmount Derby and got slow #s, would there still be an issue? Or because it is Missouri would you just accept that it was slow and move on. Where is the rule that says the Santa Anita Derby has to be fast?

[johnnym]

Another nice work

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eeks6vSwys0

[wrongway]

Another nice job of calling by the wonderful TVG crew. Gormley was \"the horse in front\" until he passed the horse in front and then \"clearly he was the horse in the back.\"

[johnnym]

In a positive note these are the people that we bet against.

[jerry]

What is the best figure you can see Gormley running? His sheet reminds me of Invisible Ink\'s who, if I remember correctly, got back to his top after a similar set of regressions. But do you see a 1 winnng this race? Is it realistic to expect a new top? I don\'t think so but we\'ll find out.

[Topcat]

jerry Wrote:
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> What is the best figure you can see Gormley
> running? His sheet reminds me of Invisible Ink\'s
> who, if I remember correctly, got back to his top
> after a similar set of regressions. But do you see
> a 1 winnng this race? Is it realistic to expect a
> new top? I don\'t think so but we\'ll find out.


Alas, no shot in this life you\'ll see anything resembling 55-1 on Gormley.