Making a Case For, and Against, Gormley

[richiebee]

Thorographically speaking, his (isolated) top # makes him eighth or ninth fastest
in the Derby field, and of course it must be noted that # was posted on a sloppy
track. I will not get into the whole West Coast TG # debate, because apparently
Maharajimbo is traveling far and wide seeking spiritual guidance on this matter.

I guess to put a positive TG spin on this one, it is necessary to visit the
Archives and note that Giacomo, the 05 Derby winner from these connections, posted
a TG 5 while running fourth in the SA Derby, jumped up to a 0² in the
Derby. I do not need to be reminded that Giacomo benefited from a pace meltdown in
that race.

Breeding: Gormley\'s sire Malibu Moon has sired a recent Derby winner, Orb.
I noted in a separate thread that Malibu Moon is bred along the same lines as
influential Derby sire Pulpit (BY AP Indy OUT OF a Mr.
Prospector mare) (emphasis provided for educational purposes). Gormley is the
first foal out of Race to Urga, a stakes winner on grass. The dam sire, Bernstein
was a European turf runner who earned about 170K, though it has been said this
total could have been higher if he had been entered on shabbos. Bernstein
is best known as the sire of Tepin; Gormley might be one to watch first turf.

Race record: 4/6 lifetime, two of the four wins G1; the two losses being a
troubled loss to Classic Empire in the BC Juvie, and a retreating fourth place
finish in the San Felipe where he went head to head with the now injured Mastery,
who was the Derby favorite for about thirty seconds.

Intangibles: Steve Haskin, who ranks Gormley tenth on his \"Derby Dozen\",
calls Gormley \"a work in progress\". Watch the replay of the Santa Anita Derby.
Victor Espinoza grabs a hold of his mount and takes him back of a three way speed
duel. The results when a jockey tries to grab a hold of a frontrunner are not
always successful; in this case they were. Further \"work in progress\" (no pun) was
Gormley\'s most recent breeze (6f in 1:15⁴) where he was taken well back
of a workmate and asked to pass said workmate on the inside. While
1:15⁴ is not exciting, the final 1/8th was done in 11 and change. This
is a colt in the midst of a transformation.

More intangibles: The success of California 3YOs in the Derby and other 3YO
stakes in recent years; the success of Victor Espinoza at the Derby.

Intangible \"knock\": All of Gormley\'s races have been in Cali, he is not road
tested.

I know I have not paid any credence to other factors, such as dosage (Gormley is a
dual qualifier apparently), the \"Buckpasser X\" factor (discussed here briefly). I
have especially avoided discussing \"patterns\", because my personal opinion is that
lightly raced 3YOs have not raced frequently enough to establish same (heresy, I
know).

[FrankD.]

I thought Bernstein was best known as America\'s top Jewish sire? I recall TGAB using that line at more than one seminar......

[TGAB]

Absolutely.

[milwmike]

It will be interesting to see JB\'s comments in the seminar.  In the ROTW comments for the San Felipe, he said Gormley is a very serious Derby contender.

[johnnym]

Richeebee:
I 100% agree with you.
Furthermore as I posted horses with Grass in the pedigree seem to run well at the Downs.
I am starting to think of more pace than I was originally thinking.
Which if this occurs and he learns to relax, I say he gets first run at the leading pack.
His last work was the best pre Derby work I have seen and he came home very strong.

18-1 odds I am guessing at post time, he is on my short list.

One thing for sure, you will know by the time the cross the finish line for the first time if you are in the race with him.

Good Luck
John

[jerry]

From a purely sheets read, a win would be and oddity.

[BitPlayer]

I\'d prefer for this not to become relevant, but I think he moves up in the mud.

[richiebee]

Couldn\'t agree more, Jerry.

I do not follow offshore, but I could imagine Gormley leaving the gate at odds
of between 12 and 18/1. Depending on post and other considerations, I will make
a market decision to embrace a scenario which involves a colt with a homely
T-graph winning the Derby.

As I said, there are seven? eight? runners which have run faster TGs than
Gormley. Without divulging proprietary data (which is why I am allowed to make
the occasional heretic utterance), only two of these have separated themselves
from the others.

I won\'t be able to post about this colt much longer before Jimbo jumps all over
me. The Moss/Shirreffs team did not take Zenyatta on the road enough, and
Jimbo, who is currently scouting lightweighted sherpas to ride at the upcoming
Hyderabad Turf Club Meeting (which opens in July and is run over a weatherized
\"Monsoon\" track) never forgave them.

[dskidmore1]

There are some KDs that taking the top speed numbers make sense, but most depend on where and when those numbers are made.  Gormsley\'s Santa Anita was subpar for that race historically.  He had a perfect trip.  Midway, American, and Royal ran lights out. And it set up perfectly for Gormley who ran a nice race.  And won a Grade 1.  But it was not lights out. It may not have been as impressive as his two prior races.  Which says to me he was not overextended and could move forward.

[ajkreider]

It\'s not just that several others have run faster, it\'s that the kind of improvement that gets back to his sloppy top puts just about the entire field in play (with a similar forward move). And some of these will be much longer odds.

I honestly don\'t know what they were trying to do with the work.  (Are they envisioning a rail trip?).  One would think that any of these horses could run :11 4/5 with those kinds of opening splits.  

If you were guaranteed right now that Gormley were to run MTB\'s number (knowing nothing about the trip), could you play him on top at 12-1?

[richiebee]

ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 
 
> I honestly don\'t know what they were trying to do
> with the work.  (Are they envisioning a rail
> trip?).  One would think that any of these horses
> could run :11 4/5 with those kinds of opening
> splits.  

I would imagine that the fact that they were able to get a colt (who lived or
died on the front end in his first five races) to relax in the early stages of
the breeze is more significant than the closing fraction.

Gotta go now. Time to do a Zapruder film frame by frame review of Classic
Empire\"s lead changes in the lane at OP.

By the way, does anyone know if Cassini cleared Saturn\'s rings?

[TempletonPeck]

You used \'intangible\' in two headings, and you want to make Zapruder film jokes?

[Ace]

I like Royal MO better than Gormley. He ran from the far outside in both the Rebel and the SA Derby. I\'m hoping he draws into the field. Nothing wrong with his sheet pattern although a bit slow on numbers. CA numbers always seem to be a little light on TG. I like this horse at big odds, if he gets in.

[Tavasco]

I\'m not clear if Royal Mo is in the race or not. Assuming that he gets in. The conspiracy angle has yet be considered.

Royal Mo vs Gormley running head to head from the gate is unlikely to make sense to anybody.

Prior to retiring from Hollywood Gary Stevens aka George Woolf proved to be an accomplished front runner both in classic match races as well as at Churchill Downs.

Rather than a coin flip Victor deferred and all that was left was for trainer Sherriffs to teach Gormley some patience.

Most consider Gary Stevens an ethical guy. So is it inconceivable that he would melt or at least warm up the pace of the 2017 Kentucky Derby.

No Need (They all said) the pace looks to be very contested already. I\'m not suggesting contested pace I\'m envisioning Palace Malice. Just for 1/2 mile maybe 6F.

The oooheee is that Orb (whom most of us cashed with) BY Malibu Moon IN THE rain and mud may not have won (heresy) without the fortunate assist.

Vuja De? Of course without defections, if Thunder Snow goes, as it looks he will this fantasy is a fantasy I guess.

Apologies all around

Thanks richiebee for another entertaining and grounded post. I can\'t help but be inspired. Some day I\'ll learn grounded.

Edit: Reminded the Moss winner Giacomo was a meltdown as previously mentioned. out of

[richiebee]

I like Gormley. I\'ve admitted his T-graph is a bit homely. I\'ve got to embrace the
intangibles.

We are getting close to the post position draw, entries being taken for the Derby
undercard, some long term weather forecasting by Frank D and of course the release
of the seminar; I\'m expecting that attempts at humor and discussion of intangibles
will be significantly reduced.