bin Suroor

[Focus959]

Not sure what to do with Thunder Snow, but it jogged by memory about bin Suroor\'s amazing performance at Saratoga from 2008-2010 when he used to ship his Godolphin string to the Spa. Over three years he was 43/16-8-4; off a layoff he was 30/12-6-3 and in stakes races he was 23/9-5-2! bin Suroor is a world class trainer who is no stranger to American dirt racing.

[PapaChach]

so many dubai-to-derby failures on the books now that i\'d think the value will be there...i was on the very first one, worldly manner, way back in \'99, wanting to catch on to them before they caught onto us, stupid, i know, and i swore them off ever since...

but i am wondering if in a year when the race looks wide open enough that highly-respected posters here are making legit cases for the ninth or tenth fastest horse in the race, if it might be time to go outside the proverbial box...or as the inimitable daniel johnston once sang it, \"this is a promise with a catch, only if you\'re looking can it find you...but how can it recognize you, unless you step out into the light, the light...\"

[Tavasco]

Not surprisingly, I don\'t know as much about music as I imagined. However, as one who follows racing in Japan, Hong Kong and Down Under I can say Godolphin runners don\'t really sneak up on the bettors anywhere. To get one at a price is a gift. What\'s the saying? don\'t look a gift horse....

I expect they\'ll get some ink next week. The horse doesn\'t have to win to be valuable which is true of most all this year. The absence of distance doubts is a big plus for me.


-->This Daniel Johnston?

[SoCalMan2]

Focus959 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not sure what to do with Thunder Snow, but it
> jogged by memory about bin Suroor\'s amazing
> performance at Saratoga from 2008-2010 when he
> used to ship his Godolphin string to the Spa. Over
> three years he was 43/16-8-4; off a layoff he was
> 30/12-6-3 and in stakes races he was 23/9-5-2! bin
> Suroor is a world class trainer who is no stranger
> to American dirt racing.

not sure it works, but here was my take on this horse\'s sheet in another thread.  BTW, first lasix or not will be huge in evaluating this horse

https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,106674,107192#msg-107192

[SoCalMan2]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Focus959 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Not sure what to do with Thunder Snow, but it
> > jogged by memory about bin Suroor\'s amazing
> > performance at Saratoga from 2008-2010 when he
> > used to ship his Godolphin string to the Spa.
> Over
> > three years he was 43/16-8-4; off a layoff he
> was
> > 30/12-6-3 and in stakes races he was 23/9-5-2!
> bin
> > Suroor is a world class trainer who is no
> stranger
> > to American dirt racing.
>
> not sure it works, but here was my take on this
> horse\'s sheet in another thread.  BTW, first lasix
> or not will be huge in evaluating this horse
>
> https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,10667
> 4,107192#msg-107192

It is interesting that Saeed Bin Suroor is coming to Churchill himself.  He hasn\'t come since 2000 although he has had a lot of horses that he could have come with.  I recall him having a horse named Blues and Royals that ran an enormous figure and then got injured so missed the race.  I recall that Charlie Wittingham, notwithstanding being a super trainer, did not have an entrant in the Derby for the 25 years before Ferdinand.  Something feels very right about Thunder Snow here.  I believe he is very well meant.  

I really like that he has had only two preps this year and they were a top and a pair.  Although the figures are slow, there are excuses for both of them -- first one was first off a layoff and first dirt, and second was first time around two turns.  I have found that a lot of horses improve quite a bit second or third time trying two turns. I would not underestimate that angle.  Additionally, one could make the argument that this horse has yet to show a reaction point and is just steadily developing.  If that is a correct read, then you can get some comfort that a big jump would not be as much out of context as it would be for a horse that had a slow established level.

On top of that, first time lasix is just such a powerful angle. Nowadays where horses run their entire careers on Lasix, it is hard to remember that, back in the day, horses did not get lasix until they bled in a race, so you had prior form, first and second lasix form.  That used to be an incredibly powerful angle. Just because it is so rare now doesnt seem to me to be a reason to discount it.  Also, consider it in light of Suroor\'s Saratoga experiences that started this string.

Also, you have to very much like that this horse prevailed in a very tough stretch drive against a very large field going 9.5 panels already.  Hard to find more spot on experience.  I do not know about the jockey Soumillion.  Can anybody give any info?  Is he likely to be a plus or a minus for trip?  He was 3w3w at Meydan, but was also in an outside post in a 16 horse field.

It seems to me that this horse can be keyed to land in the verticals.  I would not rely on him only in the top spot (while I expect him to run a good new top, it is not so good that he can afford to give others a better trip or that he can prevail over some of the very best in here if they come back to prior super numbers).  It seems to me though that if you make verticals, you can be comfortable singling him in each spot.  Just being able to do that helps immensely in making tickets.  

My big concern in this Derby is that I think we might see the largest blanket finish ever in this race and fractions of a point even smaller than are used in making the sheets will make a difference. I think there are going to be a lot of tickets looking alive with a few jumps to go that are going to suffer excruciating bad beats.  I am hoping that this horse\'s battle hardening is going to be an asset in that circumstance.  Horse has ran in 7 straight graded stakes. Other than the first of those 7, he has not run worse than 2 lengths off the winner in the last 6 (while finishing top 2 in 5 out of 6 of them).

I think I will be only making tickets that require this horse to hit somewhere in my trifectas and superfectas....still need to figure out the rest, but this is the first big piece.

[Furious Pete]

I have to say I have some difficulties with adjusting to the idea of having to excuse a horse that wins a G3 race with 5 lengths in the easiest fashion possible.

When that is said, I wouldn\'t count that figure he earned by doing it as written in stone. I really have a hard time believing it actually was a 3 1/4. FWIW I have it more like a 7 by doing them of the local horses and track speed that day, with ground. I didn\'t give a 0 to North America either, whom raced the same distance two races earlier that day, and ran that distance a full two seconds faster than Thunder Snow. Still, it was obvious to everyone watching that he too (TS) could have run a lot faster. FWIW, the figure earned in UAE Derby is exactly what I have it as, as well. I wouldn\'t read too much into that, but this being a TG-forum and you guys loving the paired up tops, just thought it would be interesting to share my 5 cents on that particular race (hope I didn\'t offend anyone). 1st lasix and Bin Suroor in USA is interesting, indeed.  

Regarding Soumillion, I would say that he\'s no dirt expert and he certainly isn\'t very ground conscious on dirt either. For the last 3 seasons combined I have him 4 from 41 on the dirt in Dubai (including 2 wins on TS and one win on Mubtaahij). His stats are much better on turf (he also gets more mounts on turf). He is also more ground conscious on turf, and maybe one can interpret that as a big dislike for taking kickback on his mounts. I haven\'t ran a study on this, but I get the impression from watching these European turf jockeys riding on the dirt track at Meydan that they are more afraid of the kickback, than they are of going wide. From stall 2 I don\'t think they have much better options than to pray that in this particular case, Thunder Snow will handle it. At least he showed in Dubai World Cup 2016 on board Mubtaahij that he can ride the rail, too.

[SoCalMan2]

Furious Pete Wrote:
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> When that is said, I wouldn\'t count that figure he
> earned by doing it as written in stone. I really
> have a hard time believing it actually was a 3
> 1/4. FWIW I have it more like a 7 by doing them of
> the local horses and track speed that day, with
> ground. I didn\'t give a 0 to North America either,
> whom raced the same distance two races earlier
> that day, and ran that distance a full two seconds
> faster than Thunder Snow. Still, it was obvious to
> everyone watching that he too (TS) could have run
> a lot faster. FWIW, the figure earned in UAE Derby
> is exactly what I have it as, as well. I wouldn\'t
> read too much into that, but this being a TG-forum
> and you guys loving the paired up tops, just
> thought it would be interesting to share my 5
> cents on that particular race (hope I didn\'t
> offend anyone). 1st lasix and Bin Suroor in USA is
> interesting, indeed.  
>

If the grade three figure were to be adjusted to be a little slower -- making it a 5 or so, then his pattern is even better.....instead of a top and a pair, it would be a top and a top.  Even if you look at both of his this year\'s numbers as soft, all that does is help my analysis, not hurt it.  The point is the pattern, not the number power.  If you are only looking at number power, you have to toss this horse, but there is no question that pattern can be more important than number power.

[Niall]

This is one seriously bred horse horse for grass. Serious. Fact or fiction, is CD more forgiving to turf horses? No matter, I will be using, more for fun though. This can wait till after the race, but how would we be looking at his figs/pattern from a turf perspective? If he doesnt run well, I hope he has an excellent turf career.

[SoCalMan2]

Niall Wrote:
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> This is one seriously bred horse horse for grass.
> Serious. Fact or fiction, is CD more forgiving to
> turf horses? No matter, I will be using, more for
> fun though. This can wait till after the race, but
> how would we be looking at his figs/pattern from a
> turf perspective? If he doesnt run well, I hope he
> has an excellent turf career.


If it is true that this horse is better on turf than on dirt, then this horse is already good enough to be very major contender in any Grade 1 turf stakes.  Wasn\'t the knock on Animal Kingdom that he was a turf horse?

[Furious Pete]

Certainly didn\'t try to talk you off this horse, and nothing would make me happier tomorrow than a big race from Thunder Snow.

I\'ve just spent a little time trying to make sense of this figure from a TG-perspective, but I must say I came up short and 5 is probably not the correct figure either, IMHO.

In the dirt race before Thunder Snow, North America ran the same distance almost a full two seconds faster than Thunder snow (1,97 to be exact). If one assumes that 1 length is equal to 0,17 seconds (which at least is very much in the ballpark of what is the standard in this business) - that is about 11,5 lengths. In the introduction part of this site one reads \"On our scale 1 point = ~1 length at 5 furlongs increasingly to 2 lengths at 1 1/4 miles.\". That makes 1 point at a mile equal to about 1,6 lengths. The difference in figure between North America and TS is 3,5 points - that is 3,5 * 1,6 = 5,6 lengths.

What has happened with the other 5,9 lengths separating North America and TS on the clock?

It doesn\'t seem like TG has used ground to make this figure, but trakus does show TS to have run about 1,8 lengths further than North America. Weight was the same. That leaves 4,1 lengths, which equals to about 2,5 TG points at this distance (a little more to be exact).

If one accepts the neg 0 1/4 they gave to North America, and one doesn\'t have the track changing speed between these two races, then TS should have got a 5 3/4 and that is by using ground, which it doesn\'t seem like TG was doing in the first place. Without ground Thunder Snow should have got about 6 3/4, or maybe a 7 if one doesn\'t do the rounding downs I\'ve been doing throughout this thought process.

All though I agree North America ran a small new top in this race, I have him a point or two slower coming in than what TG have, but I guess it isn\'t outside the scope of reasonable to have him running that fast either.

As for use of creative license I\'m not against that at all, but I got this to fit pretty well without using it and I mean, 3 is a pretty huge figure to give out to a 3yo in his season debut, when winning easy and actually eased down a little bit in the end. Specially considering there\'s no good data points to justify such an action, the runner up in this race got beaten 5 lengths in a maiden race the race before.

If someone could shed a little light on this for me that would be great, maybe I am the one mistaking somewhere in here and if so, then that\'s on me. But if 3,5 points equals to about 5,6 lengths, it just seems like some real creative license use must have taken place, and it would be nice to get some insights into why.

I understand that there\'s a lot going on with the Derby tomorrow, so I don\'t expect an explanation or anything right now, just chiming in with my two cents in time for the gates to open. But I really would\'ve enjoyed a \"peek\" into the thought process and theory laying behind this particular figure, when things have calmed down.

Anyway you look at it you have a very handsome colt coming of two great preps, getting 1st lasix and at least an outside chance of getting a great trip if he\'s handling the kickback and everything, the connections are very serious and only settle for the very best, trainer is absolutely world class, and I think it is likely that Dubai horses develops at a slightly slower pace than the American ones, specially at dirt. Looking at the way this horse finished in the UAE Derby you got to give him a chance to improve a bit from that too. I won\'t bet, but I will cheer, and I do think TS is the most serious challenge coming from Dubai at least for as long as I\'ve followed this race.

[SoCalMan2]

Well, when I go wrong, I go wrong big.  My biggest excitement was waiting for the race to be over and see if there was going to be a Stewards\' review to check the start and see if Thunder Snow would be declared a non-starter.  Of course, I didn\'t even get a review.  I thought when bizarre things happen at the start, they always review it even if they do not do anything.  Anyway, weird to be watching a Derby when about 80% of my action was dead before a furlong had been run.

[Socalman3]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
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> Well, when I go wrong, I go wrong big.  My biggest
> excitement was waiting for the race to be over and
> see if there was going to be a Stewards\' review to
> check the start and see if Thunder Snow would be
> declared a non-starter.  Of course, I didn\'t even
> get a review.  I thought when bizarre things
> happen at the start, they always review it even if
> they do not do anything.  Anyway, weird to be
> watching a Derby when about 80% of my action was
> dead before a furlong had been run.

Ugh......this horse turns it around to win the big Dubai race?  The only good news is that I cannot do worse in this year\'s derby at least in terms of how much a part of the race my action still has a chance.