Derby Weather

[jbelfior]

It\'s close enough to have some confidence in the long range.

Looks dry and in the 70\'s for Derby day after a wet week. Oaks day is iffy right now.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[FrankD.]

Not a believer in long range forecasts at all BUT what Joe put up a couple days ago is pretty accurate.

Wednesday they may get through the card without rain. A pretty good amount of showers and T-storms are in the area Wednesday night, all day Thursday and Thursday night. At least an inch of rain overall. Hopefully they move out for Oaks Day, still some chance they hang around for part of the day. Friday will be a day for pink sweaters and jackets, only in the 50\'s. Derby day will be Dry and in the mid 60\'s.

Track maintenance will be key as always, especially the BO-RAIL.

Good luck,

Frank D.

[RICH]

NWS weather report looks like crap to me , rain everyday, expect good/soft turf if that forecast holds at best

[johnnym]

Ouch; that is a turn for the worse.

Who moves up?
Gormley? Best fig is in the slop.

[Strike]

RICH Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> NWS weather report looks like crap to me , rain
> everyday, expect good/soft turf if that forecast
> holds at best

Looks like rain for sure Thursday/Friday. Tapering off for Saturday. Dirt track really drains well. No question -- turf should be off.

[trwhis2]

Based on the current 20 - Record on OFF track = 10-5-4-0 and no horse has more than one race over an Off track.

Irap finished 4th in a sloppy MSW race at SA.

[Fairmount1]

Thanks for this info.  

I counted the following six wins on Off tracks:  Thunder Snow, Gormley, Classic Empire, Tapwrit, Hence, and Battle of Midway.

Did you count Thunder Snow\'s win at Meyden?  The DRF form says Muddy and 1 for 1 on Wet tracks.  Brisnet PP\'s say the track was Ft and TS is 0 for 0 on \"Off\" tracks.  TG also says Muddy with their info.

So who rated the track Muddy at Meyden?  And who rated it Fast for Brisnet?

Anyone with more insight?

[trwhis2]

Brisnet has it as Fast. So he wasn\'t included in that stat.

[toppled]

Here\'s a replay.  I notice the front of Thunder Snow\'s rider\'s pants have some dirt on it.  For those with keen eyes, what do the bodies of the horses who were behind tell you?  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcVWej-Va0Q

[Topcat]

Looks like we might be able to get past Wednesday with minimal moisture exposure at CD, at least . . . appreciative of small favors.

[jerry]

Nothing muddy about that track. Thanks for sharing. TS life and death through the stretch. He will not be on my tickets.

[ajkreider]

He was so much wider than Epi.  Ran huge despite jumping shadows and switching leads in the stretch.  And though it\'s sacrilege, I think the number for TS is a little light (gulp!).

[jbelfior]

Off of a single 1 mile prep. Classic distance pedigree blows away more than half of this field.

Paired tops as a 3yo. Dominating win as a 2yo versus graded stakes winners in Europe. Dominating win going 7 furlongs which is a developing trend amongst recent Derby winners and translates best to a 1 1/4 as it is a distance that requires speed, stamina, and a turn of foot for success.

Yes, a bit of a nut but leave him off at your own peril.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[toppled]

I\'ll add some more:
6 straight forward moving races, basically a pair in only 3 yo races. Very healthy pattern.  Undefeated on dirt.  Even though it\'s questionable whether that was a muddy track, there was definitely some moisture in it if it\'s wet on Saturday.  The horse he was life and death to beat was previously undefeated and it was Epicharis, not Thunder Snow, who was so highly rated that he was included in future wager pool 3.