Early Stab at Derby M/L, '17, Updated

[Fairmount1]

The field is set it appears barring any scratches that draw in Royal Mo and/or others such as Local Hero.  Here is one last attempt at the M/L.  I\'m trying to guess the actual odds at post and I am more concerned with the ordinal rank in the betting as much as anything here.  

With that said, I have succumbed with more information from works in, etc that AD may actually be the favorite.  Odds wise, I believe this Derby looks to be shaping up similar to the 2012 (Body 4.20-1, UR 5.10-1) and 2013 (Orb 5.40-1, Rev 6.40-1) Derbies.  If he opens as fourth choice now and remains there, the board will be screaming to RUN FAR AWAY from him. (On a side note, I am struggling with this one personally in my handicapping decisions.  For the last several years I\'ve tossed Pletcher from the win spot with no worries.) Also, I\'ve moved Girvin down signficantly based on recent events.  I\'ve moved a few other things around based on works and info since two weeks ago.  Obviously post position could affect this as well.  This is my last attempt that I will post. Hope it helps for mapping out your exotics or planning ahead.  Feel free to criticize or comment as I\'m always open to others\' ideas/thoughts at this stage esp the ordinal rank.  
 

1. Always Dreaming, 4.20-1
2. Classic Empire, 4.50-1
3. McCracken, 7.40-1
4. Irish War Cry, 8.50-1
5. Gunnevera, 10.30-1
6. Thunder Snow, 15.60-1
7. Practical Joke, 17.50-1
8. Gormley, 18.20-1
9. Hence, 19.40-1
10. Girvin, 23.30-1
11. Irap, 24.00-1
12. Tapwrit, 26.00-1
13. Lookin At Lee, 30.20-1
14. J Boys Echo, 32.30-1
15. Battle of Midway, 33.40-1
16. State of Honor, 37.40-1
17. Untrapped, 39.00-1
18. Patch, 46.60-1
19. Sonneteer, 54.50-1
20. Fast and Accurate, 70.40-1

[PapaChach]

Nice job. Agree on the 1st two choices. Just curious, what factors led you to make  McC 3rd choice rather than IWC? The latter seems to be solid 3rd choice in early offshore betting lines I\'ve seen.

[Fairmount1]

Two weeks ago immediately after the Ark Derby, I saw IWC as the clear second choice behind CE.  Since then IWC has stayed out of the limelight at Fair Hill while AD has been fawned over by Welsch (a Pletcher shill likely out of journalistic necessity) among others namely b/c of the time of a single workout at CD.  Welsch also said on Byk\'s show following AD\'s earlier PBD work that Pletcher\'s confidence (body language I believe indicated this he said) was high.  This combined with his agressiveness at CD viewed positively in the media\'s eyes, the 6-1 in the final future pool have all catapulted him to a potential fav\'s role and if not him, then CE.  CE\'s lower Beyer figure in ArkDerby compared to AD\'s FlaDerby also lead me to believe this may be the year Pletcher saddles the Derby favorite for the first time.  

This left IWC and McCracken behind AD and the 2yo champ.  The attention McCracken has received for his love of CD, his workouts, Wilkes knowledge with Nafzger in the barn, his undfeated record at CD, his fav role in the final future pool at $5.90-1 versus $6.10-1 for AD lead me to believe he will receive slightly more money than IWC.  (IWC in last future pool a week before his Wood was $21.50-1).  The argument for IWC to go above McCracken is the 101 Beyer in the Wood but Battalion Runner\'s defection/poor work and Cloud Computing\'s defection didn\'t flatter him whatsoever.  He has been difficult to ride in all of his races to my eye, lost to Practical Joke and traded blows with Gunny when facing those horses two and three races back.  These running lines are items people look at when searching for that winner.  Last, I thought people will excuse McCracken\'s last race as a race that was needed rather than a failure on his part while IWC\'s race two back was just a flop (7th by 21).  

It is splitting hairs I think on those two and I could be completely wrong believing the public makes McCracken 3rd choice.  I have them $1.10 apart and it could certainly go the other way.  The offshore lines may have received enough money to support their solid 3rd choice opinion on IWC but it may also be based on the fact IWC is faster on most figures including Beyer, Brisnet, and TG.  

Hope this let\'s you know I put some serious thought into it even though it is just Tasseography!

[TGJB]

If you\'re going to take yourself this seriously you need to start wearing shirts with collars. At least in Saratoga. Caroline street aside.

[FrankD.]

Not to mention the orange sneakers with the bass fisherman\'s hat !!!!!

JB, the kid is NO slave to fashion but we love him

[Fairmount1]

You missed last summer\'s orange tennis shoes!  Frank was too embarassed to be outside of the race track with me!  And poor Roger at Del Mar I think cringed for the same reason but Jill Baffert saved me with a compliment on them as we left after the San Diego Handicap!

[TGJB]

Del Mar is a whole different thing. You can literally (by which I do mean literally) wear a T shirt and shorts in the paddock for the Pacific Classic and nobody will bat an eye. Try that for a NY bred maiden race upstate and see if you get in.

Years ago I was dating this girl, and she was... let\'s go with hot. When we got to the paddock at Belmont they made her put on a jacket, and she wasn\'t even wearing anything crazy.

Everyone keep the responses to this one board appropriate.

[PapaChach]

Thanks for the detailed response. I suspected IWC being out of the limelight might be a factor. The triple digit Beyer thing is why I thought he might wind up with more play - it\'s odd but I have seen races where horses w/triple digits showing get more play than horses with 99s...

By the way, on the subject of orange shoes, I had a brief fling senior year of college with a girl who liked to wear orange Chuck Taylors. She was considered fashionable by people who seemed to know better than me (I\'ve always been happy if I can get out of the house w/the clothes right-side out and sans grease stains). It was 1987, but some things remain timeless, right?

[Furious Pete]

\"Years ago I was dating this girl, and she was... let\'s go with hot.\"

Why isn\'t this red boarding?

[boardedup]

Grease stains or Chucky T\'s?  All kidding aside I was in the city the other day (coincidentally in and around Varick) and I witnessed many girls decked out in purely 80\'s look clothing. White high top sneakers, ripped jeans with the high waist band,halter tops, the whole nine-  goes to show everything comes back around eventually!


I was curious as to why you think it\'s odd that horses with triple digit beyer\'s get more play than those w/ 99\'s?  A ton of people still love to bet the one with highest beyer regardless of anything else.

[Fairmount1]

I think he meant that the triple digit Beyer horses (say a 100) will be bet way more heavily than a horse with a 99 as opposed to a race where the top two horses are 82 and 81 and the betting among those two would be much closer.  It is a common phenomenon with the 100 Beyer fig horses.    

It is like a Giraffe figure that stands out to the bettor\'s eye, the whole triple digit Beyer.

[Airnate012]

LOL

[boardedup]

For sure, I agree.  It\'s funny, certain people that actually get paid to be a \"public handicapper\" seem to adhere to this same school of thought.  The one sporting a 94 last out is \"slow\" but one that hit the century mark is \"right where he likes to see them??\"

That raises a question of, how much do you (all you guys) think the \"experts\" or public handicappers influence the odds, if at all, on big days like this?  Like when NBC shows their crews picks for example.  

The next question would be do they \"talk their own book\" or just spit out one of the favorites in an effort to maximize price on what they actually like?  I\'ve often wondered about this, is there more value in giving winners to literally millions in the case of something like an NBC TV show or keeping it to yourself?  

Because regardless, I don\'t think they get picked for appearances based on W\'s, right?

[Topcat]

Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The field is set it appears barring any scratches
> that draw in Royal Mo and/or others such as Local
> Hero.  Here is one last attempt at the M/L.  I\'m
> trying to guess the actual odds at post and I am
> more concerned with the ordinal rank in the
> betting as much as anything here.  
>
> With that said, I have succumbed with more
> information from works in, etc that AD may
> actually be the favorite.  Odds wise, I believe
> this Derby looks to be shaping up similar to the
> 2012 (Body 4.20-1, UR 5.10-1) and 2013 (Orb
> 5.40-1, Rev 6.40-1) Derbies.  If he opens as
> fourth choice now and remains there, the board
> will be screaming to RUN FAR AWAY from him. (On a
> side note, I am struggling with this one
> personally in my handicapping decisions.  For the
> last several years I\'ve tossed Pletcher from the
> win spot with no worries.) Also, I\'ve moved Girvin
> down signficantly based on recent events.  I\'ve
> moved a few other things around based on works and
> info since two weeks ago.  Obviously post position
> could affect this as well.  This is my last
> attempt that I will post. Hope it helps for
> mapping out your exotics or planning ahead.  Feel
> free to criticize or comment as I\'m always open to
> others\' ideas/thoughts at this stage esp the
> ordinal rank.  
>  
>
> 1. Always Dreaming, 4.20-1
> 2. Classic Empire, 4.50-1
> 3. McCracken, 7.40-1
> 4. Irish War Cry, 8.50-1
> 5. Gunnevera, 10.30-1
> 6. Thunder Snow, 15.60-1
> 7. Practical Joke, 17.50-1
> 8. Gormley, 18.20-1
> 9. Hence, 19.40-1
> 10. Girvin, 23.30-1
> 11. Irap, 24.00-1
> 12. Tapwrit, 26.00-1
> 13. Lookin At Lee, 30.20-1
> 14. J Boys Echo, 32.30-1
> 15. Battle of Midway, 33.40-1
> 16. State of Honor, 37.40-1
> 17. Untrapped, 39.00-1
> 18. Patch, 46.60-1
> 19. Sonneteer, 54.50-1
> 20. Fast and Accurate, 70.40-1


Will only make one point before this goes too far . . . after year after year after year of Looney-Tunes Derby program MLs, a sudden veer towards the broad UK antepost price ranges was noted, and yea verily, the product was thus improved -- to everyone\'s relief.

[FrankD.]

Pete,

A couple more posts like this one you\'ll be back in Jimbo\'s good graces....
Who knows you may get an invite from he and Richiebee for Punjab pizza night ?