I saw that clip on the telly years ago and you could say it made an impact.
I don\'t think I want to take this discussion any further, I will look foolish enough already if AD runs bad and Practical Joke or McCraken wins (i.e \"the pretty sheets\").
As for this analogy, since you asked, I just think it was funny.
Bear Grylls commits himself to survive in the harshest of environments just by relying on one tool only, namely himself, and all though he shows it can be done he does end up taking a lot of sh.t in the process. I just think one of the \"uglier\" sheets will take this down, and if you\'re looking at the market, it seems to agree. I can\'t see Practical Joke winning, and I have a hard time picturing McCraken getting the roses too. If they run 3rd or 4th, I get the feeling most people on here have tossed the winner anyway (or have watered down all their value by using the all-button).
Maybe the prettiest sheet isn\'t the best indicator of who will win THIS EDITION of the KD Derby?
If one still insists on relying on that one tool only then - disregarding the eye-test, giving too much weight to poorly fundated statistics, ignoring the fact that \"the bounce\" is a question of percentages and not a simple yes or no-question, reading the lines as 9-9-0 instead of actually do some handicapping, reading too much into a 2yo race that you think can help you predict a bounce, not making a difference between a bounce (i.e a physical phenomena) and a regression (i.e coincidences), blindly betting \"pretty\" over \"fast\", cling yourself to ridiculous mantras as \"the number is the number\" without giving it much more thought - well, then maybe you just might end up squeasing drops of water out of elephant sheet instead of buying yourself a soda at the nearby gas station.
IMO, there\'s no need to commit that wholeheartedly to one tool only when trying to predict the derby. Specially not in these cases where you can\'t seem to find an acceptable solution by applying it.
From wikipedia:
A mental set is a framework for thinking about a problem. It can be shaped by habit or by desire. Mental sets can make it easy to solve a class of problem, but attachment to the wrong mental set can inhibit problem-solving and creativity.
