McCracken Gallop Outs

[Silver Charm]

Both have been strong at CD. Horse is on the muscle and has a very sharp rider friendly mind. However have put no positional speed in him so expect him to come from back. Could unleash a powerful late rum and be far too late ala Exxagerator last year.

With just a pair of 2\'s this year this one MUST go forward to have a chance. He has never run in a Grade One. 10-1 would be good value. 8-1 is reasonable. 5 or 6-1 and you are out of your mind. This is about the percentages. Not what you are hoping for....

[TempletonPeck]

Agree with all your points, and would note additionally that while many are saying \"Wilkes can point to a race!\" We should not forget that this horse was injured following the Sam Davis and it\'s entirely possible (likely, even) that this was not the plan Wilkes had in mind on January 1st.

Conceivable he runs a new top and doesn\'t hit the board.

7/1 in Las Vegas but 12/1 in England. I guess they don\'t buy clocker reports in England ;-)

[Silver Charm]

People don\'t even know what the Post Positions are. And yet are making clear assumptions about this or that!

Gun Runner drew very well last year. But instead of going off at his 12-1 ML was something like 8-1. Coming in off a pair of 5\'s. Horse ran a good race. Ran 3rd and got his ass kicked. Needed like a 5 Pt New Top to win. Unless there is a pace collapse. Giacomo. Or a mud puddle track. Mine that Bird. It\'s probably not gonna happen. So don\'t reach....

[mjellish]

The stated plan by the trainer for this colt back in January was to have 3 preps, not two.  But he missed a start in the Tampa Derby due to an ankle issue.  So they audibled.  To me that\'s not as big of an issue as the fact that McCraken hasn\'t run fast enough to win yet.  There are 9 colts that have run faster than him, and very few colts run new tops in the Derby.  

Brody\'s Cause had a great pattern and a good 2 weeks of training last year leading up to the Derby.  He even ran well and paired his top.  That was good enough for 7th place. But you got 25-1 for betting that Brody would move forward.

Pending the draw, you will probably get less than half of that with McCraken.

[boardedup]

Right, he needs a new top and more than a handful of the others to go back.  I\'ve been hearing McCraken fans saying that poor Keenland form bodes well for Churchill, and that it\'s actually advantageous to NOT run fast in the Bluegrass as it relates to the derby.

I would think most would much rather have an improving horse coming in off of a super solid, but not debilitating effort? Even if there is historical president between bouncing in the Bluegrass and hitting the board in the derby as I\'ve been told, someone else here already posted the numbers on actually winning in KY off a poor final prep and it\'s not encouraging.  

Underneath at best regardless of post.

edit: I\'m not suggesting that Mccraken ran terrible in his final prep, and he is likely to go forward, but I still don\'t think it\'ll be enough

[P-Dub]

Agree he hasn\'t run as fast as several others. However, several of those \"faster\" horses have some big question marks. Whether it be trainer, pattern, surface, etc.. most of the ones that have run faster have reasons to not run faster than McCracken next Saturday.

I\'ve already stated my position on McCracken in a post about a week ago. My only concern is price. I think Silver Charm said 8-1 was reasonable but 6-1 was out of your mind territory. I think half of that would be out of your mind territory. $18 or $14 is not a bad price. If McCracken wins off by 2 lengths, passing because he\'s 6-1 and you love him would be silly also.

6-1 in a 20 horse field where all horses have the same chances of winning would indeed be silly. However, if you think only a handful have a realistic shot of beating him then 6-1 isn\'t a bad price at all. Obviously, I hope he\'s longer than that.

You have faster horses:
- Being trained by trainers with poor resumes for this race (Pletcher)
- Coming in off a HUGE top
- Tops run in the slop
- Not having returned to their 2YO top yet.
- Look horrible on the track during workouts

By all reports this horse looks fantastic, is training great, holding his flesh well. If this horse doesn\'t fire a big shot I will be stunned.

If you want to take a Pletcher, fine by me. You like colts coming in off 9 point tops?  Knock yourself out. You like that slop number? Do a rain dance. You like the horse that still hasn\'t returned to his 2YO top, but think he\'ll do it going 1 1/4 next Saturday? Ok. You like the horse with the big number 2 back that looks awful training recently? I\'ll clear a path to the window for you.

There are a ton of reasons that the \"faster\" horses won\'t run faster next Saturday. Anything resembling a decent price and McCracken will probably be my choice, barring something unforeseen. He hasn\'t run as fast than several, but he looks fantastic on the track. Loves the surface and has a great pattern. If he makes any kind of forward move he will take some beating.

[jimbo66]

Paul,

I like the horse.  Pretty sure I talked about how I thought his pattern would like as good as it does BEFORE TGJB even made the figure for the Bluegrass.  (figured it was a pair with awful ground loss)

That said, 6-1 on the 9th fastest horse in a 20 horse field would be bad, no matter how well he trains or looks on the track.

I don\'t think you have to worry about him being 6-1, but if he does become a steam horse very hard to key this horse at any type of single digit odds.  he is supposed to be 10-1 or a tad higher and not sure he gets that high.

Perhaps if people are really \"unwise\" enough to jump on Always Dreamin and he goes off 4-1 or even 7-2, I guess we could see 10-1 on McCracken.

I know I am biased because AD is a toss on TG and history, but part of me still thinks Classic Empire may go off favored.  

But we will see.

[mjellish]

I like the horse.  Good mind, good pattern, in the hands of an ace trainer with regards to getting him ready to fire a big one in the KY Derby.  I just wish he was faster or higher odds to offset the risk of knowing he has to go forward.  Not trying to talk anyone off him.  Just pretty difficult to lay out a bet keying him at his likely odds unless you are very narrow in focus or don\'t like 2 out of these 3 - CE, AD, IWC.

[touchgold]

I dont get how you can put mccracken the 9th fastest horse? Based purely on tops? Is gormley faster because he ran a 1 in the mud months ago? Seems to me, most horses that have run faster have also ran a lot slower than mccracken ...IWC much faster last time, much slower in FOY....its all about the effort coming saturday...he looks one of the most likely to run well. Factoring in ground loss, etc, will it be enough is the question?

[jimbo66]

Touch,

He is 9th fastest.  Please don\'t compare Irish War Cry to McCracken when it comes to who is faster.  They are many lengths apart.  IWC a much faster horse.  He is the fastest horse in the race.  

McCracken has some 5\'s and a couple 2\'s from memory.  That makes him a tad slow here.  Is he one of the few horses that is sitting on a forward move.  Absolutely.  If you asked me to bet which horse in the race is most likely to run a new top, I go McCracken (haven\'t looked at the sheets for the bombs yet).  

But taking a horse as likely 3rd choice in a 20 horse field means the price already factors in a several point forward move.  You are taking way the short of it, betting him on the come.

He is one of the 3 or so on my multi race bets because I do think he is extremely likely to run well.  But the price will be awful relative to his figures.

Jim

[P-Dub]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I like the horse.  Good mind, good pattern, in the
> hands of an ace trainer with regards to getting
> him ready to fire a big one in the KY Derby.  I
> just wish he was faster or higher odds to offset
> the risk of knowing he has to go forward.  Not
> trying to talk anyone off him.  Just pretty
> difficult to lay out a bet keying him at his
> likely odds unless you are very narrow in focus or
> don\'t like 2 out of these 3 - CE, AD, IWC.

Its not tunnel vision MJ.

I laid out the many reasons that the \"faster\" horses won\'t run those \"faster\" numbers.

I keep hearing he\'s the 9th fastest horse. If we are comparing the absolute best number, then yeah he\'s 9th fastest.

I doubt he will run the 9th fastest race this Saturday. I believe he will run one of the best numbers of any horse in the field. My previous post detailed why those faster horses won\'t be this Saturday.

For the record, I don\'t like any of the 3 favorites you mentioned.

CE: Hasn\'t gotten back to his top
AD: Huge Top in last
IWC: I think that last race knocked him out.

Jimbo,
The 9th fastest based purely on tops. As I mentioned, if you give all 20 the same chance of winning then 6-1 is awful.  If you think only a few can realistically beat him, then 6-1 isn\'t so bad.

If this were a 8 horse field, would you take 6-1??

I just think this horse fires a big shot and there are few horses that have a  shot at beating him. That is my personal opinion, others may disagree. J Boys Echo has a faster top, you like him better??

I don\'t care how many have faster tops, I care about how likely they will run this faster number on Saturday. Plenty of reasons that most will not.

[touchgold]

Yes, IWC has run faster, and I do like him, especially as the 4th choice. My point was just that as P dub said, the faster horses in the race are no certainties to run well, and in fact, have major knocks....Practical Joke aside...his sheet is nice

[P-Dub]

touchgold Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yes, IWC has run faster, and I do like him,
> especially as the 4th choice. My point was just
> that as P dub said, the faster horses in the race
> are no certainties to run well, and in fact, have
> major knocks....Practical Joke aside...his sheet
> is nice


TGold,

Practical Joke was the other horse I mentioned previously that has a beautiful pattern and is fast. If he\'s twice the price of McCracken hard not to make him the play. I could see myself keying both of those and spreading around them in the verticals.

[mjellish]

I get it Paul.  I\'m not dogmatic in any way.  Much more of an eclectic.  I try to look at the whole picture.  I\'m not afraid to bet a horse that is slower on figures if I feel they are in the ballpark, may move forward, the favorite(s) won\'t fire, are likely to get a horrible trip or bounce, etc.  Hell, I keyed Brody\'s Cause last year didn\'t I?

My only point is that in a game of percentages we have to find acceptable risk situations to bet. Being fast enough to win is a data point that I strongly consider when structuring a bet.  Odds are another.  As it sits right now, this colt very likely has not run fast enough to win (he\'s yet to win a Grade 1 race).  He would need to move forward, which may be likely, or have the faster horses not fire/get worse trips.  With that in mind, it is also likely that McCraken will have to work out a trip from the back half of the field, so it\'s tough to argue that he is more likely to get a better a trip than some of these.  With all the buzz he\'s getting I don\'t see him going off at less than 10-1.  To me that makes him an underlay in the Win pool.  

Would I bet an underlay in the KY Derby?  Sure I would, so long as I could find a way to leverage the rest of the race or the horizontals.  But there is no way I would bet a dime on McCraken in the Win pool.

[P-Dub]

I agree with you regarding risk/reward.

If Practical Joke is twice the price of McCracken, he would probably get my win money. He\'s run faster and has a nice looking pattern. I will definitely structure my verticals around those two horses. I do feel that McCracken is the most likely to run his race. You make a lot of sense regarding the win price. Lots of buzz as you say.

I see some very interesting horses that can be played underneath. The verticals may pay extremely well if the favorites run out, as I believe they have a good chance of doing. The trick of course is punching the correct ticket.