Most likely winner

[TGJB]

You\'re going to get rained on for that one, deservedly.

[rezlegal]

On another post Sekrah made a great point if track comes up sloppy. Tapwrit mud breeding is incredible, top and bottom and going back 5 generations. I won\'t begin to discuss percentage probabilities (not competent) but with a back 1 1/2 there are worse ways to fill an exotic ticket ( or a win bet) at 40-1 if track comes up soupy.

[TempletonPeck]

IWC -135 vs. Always Dreaming +105.

Opened IWC -110 if I remember correctly.

Edit: That\'s a head to head prop (don\'t have to win race, just beat the other horse) posted at Wynn.

[jimbo66]

That is what I figured.

The problem with \'match up\' bets is that they often reflect \"sharp money\" as opposed to the win pool on Derby day.

12 years or so ago, when I first started using TG, thought I could make money playing matchups at Pinnacle sports, figuring I would use the sheets against people looking mostly at PPs.  After about a month I realized that not only were the people setting the lines using sheets, but the people making the bets were \"sharps\" also.  

IWC is going to go off at higher odds than AD.  Several points higher looking at offshore.

Yet, IWC is -135 against AD.  Ugh.  -135 on an 8-1 shot to finish in front of a 9-2 shot.

[sekrah]

I\'m more concerned with the probabilities of the horses winning/hitting the board relative to their odds.

The probability of a horse running an X is not mutually exclusive of his probabilities of winning the race.  A head to head prop bet, governed by sports book limits really does not interest me at all when this is one of the few times each year where the potential exists for a real major score in the pari-mutual pools.

[sekrah]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You\'re going to get rained on for that one,
> deservedly.

You should know by now how much I care about that.

[sekrah]

rezlegal Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> On another post Sekrah made a great point if track
> comes up sloppy. Tapwrit mud breeding is
> incredible, top and bottom and going back 5
> generations. I won\'t begin to discuss percentage
> probabilities (not competent) but with a back 1
> 1/2 there are worse ways to fill an exotic ticket
> ( or a win bet) at 40-1 if track comes up soupy.


Shame, as I kind of had him on my radar without the wet track.  Nice looking horse this week.

[TGJB]

Then you shouldn\'t have cared enough to say it in the first place.

[Furious Pete]

When they go low...

[sekrah]

Furious Pete Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> When they go low...


Everyone gets butt-hurt when you knock their horse. It\'s a time honored \"Ask The Experts\" tradition.  I\'ve seen it for 14 years here.  That is their deep-thought analysis that you are knocking, how dare you!

What\'s hilarious is that I\'ve continued to say that AD is nowhere near my value target range I\'m looking for and won\'t be the focal point of my tickets.  Doesn\'t matter I guess.  

I\'ll post my final analysis Friday or Saturday morning and hopefully I land on some sort of combination that comes in for a sweet score. If not, \'til next year.

[Furious Pete]

I\'ve noticed that, and given it a lot of thought lately. I\'m beginning to think that is a flaw of people in general. I see it everywhere I look. I mean, the talk about straw men.. I haven\'t exactly declared AD as the bet of the century either, but I guess one sees what one wants to see. I\'m sure I could be more nuanced, myself. I for one appreciate your voice on this board, and I\'m sure plenty is with me.

Yeah yeah I know.. I don\'t have the right to give my opinion on anything on this board bla bla bla.

[TempletonPeck]

Another very telling example:

Practical Joke -150 vs. Gormley +120 (both are 12/1 at the same book..)

[jimbo66]

Sekrah,

Don\'t sit on the fence.  Chirping chihuahua comment aside, you have chirped as much as anybody about AD.

Not sure why you feel the need to post 40 times about a horse you are now saying isn\'t going to be a key for you.

Not sure who gets \"butt hurt\", but pretty sure when you look at your posts and my posts about IWC and AD, one of us is making an actual case on the horses and one is just saying that IWC has a 7% chance to win, without a fact or half fact to support.

Good luck,

[jimbo66]

Templeton,

Yep.  The only thing Gormley has going for him is the support of RichieBee.  (maybe that is enough to get him home!)

Regards,

Jim

[Furious Pete]

The 40 posts is a direct consequence of how (the loudest) people on this board approach others opinions. It\'s not a healthy climate for discussion. It\'s like when one guy (usually very old guy) says something along the lines that \"climate change is just some commie hippie bullshit they\'ve made up so that they can take away all our freedom and money\", and suddenly the whole evening have passed discussing with a wall about this subject that you really wasn\'t that engaged in in the first place.