Most likely winner

[TGJB]

No. The response is, you and Sekrah have been doing more of it than anyone, and made it more personal. High road my ass.

[TGJB]

Do you actually listen to yourself? One more like that and I start deleting them, after that you get barred. Nobody is throwing characterizations at you.

[sekrah]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sekrah,
>
> Don\'t sit on the fence.  Chirping chihuahua
> comment aside, you have chirped as much as anybody
> about AD.
>
> Not sure why you feel the need to post 40 times
> about a horse you are now saying isn\'t going to be
> a key for you.
>
> Not sure who gets \"butt hurt\", but pretty sure
> when you look at your posts and my posts about IWC
> and AD, one of us is making an actual case on the
> horses and one is just saying that IWC has a 7%
> chance to win, without a fact or half fact to
> support.
>
> Good luck,



I rate his chances poorly. He looks fragile to me and Motion is handling him with kid gloves to get him to the gate. If he proves me wrong, congratulations. He won\'t be on my tickets. He\'s got the figures so he deserves that credit and has a chance based on that alone, but he does not strike me as a big time horse that can run two big efforts in a 30 day window.

[Strike]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> No. The response is, you and Sekrah have been
> doing more of it than anyone, and made it more
> personal. High road my ass.

I just don\'t get the personal attacks from some about horses that they don\'t own and really have no connection with. \"My sister is prettier than your sister\" makes more sense to me since you would have at least some skin in the game. Odds aren\'t known yet. Post positions aren\'t known yet. To me, this year\'s postings are different than previous years. Numbers theory -- OK. Workout theory -- OK. Bad weather theory -- OK. The rest a bunch of nonsense -- to me anyway.

On to the seminar.

[bellsbendboy]

Comparing sisters aside and acknowledging most of the aggression, and certainly the prattle comes from the weaker players, I feel McCraken is the most likely winner.

Many will discount his Bluegrass, perhaps others his performance/speed figures, foolishly in my mind, this Ghostzapper homer is a professional race horse.  True, Ian had to call an audible at a bad time, yet this handsome colt has trained with aplomb and no rational reason he will not stay ten panels under scale weight.

bbb

[TGJB]

Hey F Scott, that one was because you thought we hadn\'t figured out who you like?

[P-Dub]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Leamas57 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Atta Boy, Sekrah.
> >
> > Good for you to stick up for yourself. Sometimes
> I
> > think the name of this forum should be changed
> to
> > \"Ask the Experts (if you dare).\"
> >
> > It\'s a tough crowd for a tough game, but that
> > doesn\'t make bullying legit.
> >
> > I agree that AD has a legit shot. I might stick
> my
> > own neck out once they draw the posts.
> >
> >
> >
> > Leamas
>
>
> The same chirping chihuahuas every year like to
> pretend they solved this game.  It\'s humorous to
> say the least.

I have a chihuahua. She\'s damn smart.

[mjellish]

Just scanning through this thread so I may be ahead of myself.  But Sek, how do you give IWC a 7% chance to win?  What is that based on?  By simple math, meaning we don\'t look at past performances at all, Fast And Accurate has a 5% chance to win because he is 1 of 20 horses, no?  You take 2% away from FAA and give it to IWC that would get you to 7%.  

How much faster is IWC than Fast and Accurate?

The odds of IWC beating Fast And Accurate are a lot more than 2%.  So there must be someone else you really like that is eating up the balance.  You really like AD that much?

[sekrah]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Just scanning through this thread so I may be
> ahead of myself.  But Sek, how do you give IWC a
> 7% chance to win?  What is that based on?  By
> simple math, meaning we don\'t look at past
> performances at all, Fast And Accurate has a 5%
> chance to win because he is 1 of 20 horses, no?
> You take 2% away from FAA and give it to IWC that
> would get you to 7%.  
>
> How much faster is IWC than Fast and Accurate?
>
> The odds of IWC beating Fast And Accurate are a
> lot more than 2%.  So there must be someone else
> you really like that is eating up the balance.
> You really like AD that much?


I have Fast and Accurate at <1%, I\'m not sure why you would put a number in my mouth there, Mike. I have AD at ~10%, which given the odds, makes him an underlay. .  All of this will change with more clarity from post draw and weather

[Chas04]

Weather looks bleak on the current update I just saw. If they keep the Fri turf races off with a dryish Fri night I think they can salvage Saturdays undercard. Hoping at least. A bunch of the Woodford horses have ran on the soft weeds before. Think it stays intact. As far as the Derby is concerned I might have to start from scratch. The unknown is no way to handicap. How does anyone know how AD will react to a wet surface on the lead?  A guess? Pedigree? Oh - his daddy loved it at Monmouth that one time. None of this means one iota. Won\'t know till the gates swing open.

[richiebee]

As others have mentioned, TAPwrat\'s dam, Appealing Zophie, won the 2006 Spinaway
Stakes at the Spa on a \"good\" track and I am assuming this is the low TG number
she earned as a 2YO. She went on to sell for 1.1M as a broodmare prospect; TAPwrat
himself is an ungraded stakes winner over a sloppy track.

Hot Dixie Chick, half sister to Always Dreaming, was tres grand vitesse on
off tracks as both a 2YO and 3YO.

Disclosing even more proprietary data, while issuing a \"small sample\" disclaimer,
Dialed In, sire of Gunnevera, has had 20 starters over an off track without a
winner.

Its all there in the data. Now I just have to wait for Frankie\'s final official
weather statement and some clarification as to whether Thunder Slow\'s UAE Derby
was indeed run over an off track.

[mjellish]

Wasn\'t trying to put a number in your mouth Sek.  Apologize if it came across that way.  I was just confused by the statement.  7% sounds pretty low to me, but I guess you don\'t like IWC much.  Certainly your prerogative.  Who knows, you could be right.

[jerry]

FWIW, in the last 10 runnings, 22 horses have come in with the Top-Pair pattern. 3 ran new tops, 4 paired their top, 3 ran off races, and 12 X\'ed.

[jbrown007]

Jerry stats can always be looked at in a way that benefits the viewer. In this specific case I am looking at third race of 3 year old campaign coming off a pair(makes me feel better about McCrack). Not really worried so much about 2 year old foundation. Obviously that plays a factor into my overall handicapping but I believe horses improve most third race of 3 year old campaign.

Recent examples
Nyquist 3,3,-0
Gun Runner 5,5,2
Firing Line 1,1,-1

If the horse is running 4th off bench in derby it changes my opinion on a horse.

Some bad ones, Gemologist,Trinniberg, Union Rags

[TempletonPeck]

This is the letter definition of anecdotal evidence.