Most likely winner

[jerry]

More fun facts (always FWIW). Horses coming into Derby with just 2 races as 3yo. (Since 2010)

Starters 36
Tops      7
Pairs     8
Off       7
X        14

[jimbo66]

Jerry,

As opposed to the 29 posts about the weather, I think your post points out something interesting.  Was hoping TGJB was going to touch on this in the seminar.  For two decades the thought process was 3 or 4 preps was ideal (as a 3 year old).  

It has struck me that horses with 2 preps had done better recently, but I didn\'t have the data.  

The breed has changed, is less \"sturdy\" than it used to be (drugs maybe but whatever the cause).  It strikes me that 2 preps and being 3rd off the layoff would be better now than it was in the 80\'s or 90\'s.  

Yes, I am biased a bit on the stat as I am trying to convince myself that \"two prep\" Practical Joke can run 1 1/4 miles.

Jim

[jbrown007]

I wouldn\'t consider that anectodal evidence. I am using actual evidence just not as broad as Jerry pulled because it doesn\'t relate to the horses I am looking at. A horse coming fourth of bench is different then third etc. That is my opinion. Doesn\'t mean the evidence is false.

Jerry those stats aren\'t bad. 41% pair/top

Jerry you seem to enjoy. How about horses coming into derby with two starts as 3 year old and pairing?

[big18741]

There is a lot of good info relating to this in the last couple of seminars.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- There\'s an outside chance TGJB touched on it. I mean is going to touch on it...

[jbelfior]

It certainly wasn\'t a problem for Bodemeister, Nehro, Eight Belles, or Smarty Jones.

If Practical Joker wins on Saturday, I will stop looking at derby prep replays, charts, patterns, pedigree, seminars, past Derby numbers, past performances etc. and simply bet Chad Brown on the first Saturday in May for the rest of my life.

Jimbo: partly cloudy, high 67. LOL

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TempletonPeck]

jbrown007 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I wouldn\'t consider that anectodal evidence. I am
> using actual evidence just not as broad as Jerry
> pulled because it doesn\'t relate to the horses I
> am looking at. A horse coming fourth of bench is
> different then third etc. That is my opinion.
> Doesn\'t mean the evidence is false.

Hi Jbrown007, I think I was a bit too quick to the trigger. I should have said something more like this:

I agree that the 2yo paired-top pattern is a healthy/promising one, in fact I don\'t think it\'s very debatable.

I think typically when a person refers to names vs. numbers, it\'s a giveaway that they\'re talking about anecdotes.

Anecdotes are not by definition false evidence, but they are weak evidence. Alternatively, if you\'re looking at the 6 horses you mentioned as your whole sample, then you have a sampling/sample size problem.

As others have suggested, there are revealing statistics in the seminars that touch on this subject.

[jimbo66]

Joe,

I don\'t get your point at all.  Practical Joke winning hardly makes all the points you mention irrelevant.  

The horse has MAYBE one problem.  Distance.  Could be a fatal one.  But fits on all other points you mention.  Fits better than all or most on all those points as well, especially with TG as your figure choice to view the horse through.

Keep an eye on the weather for us though....

Jim

[jbelfior]

Jim: What does the number of preps he has going into the race have anything to do with his ability to negotiate the distance?

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[jimbo66]

Joe,

The number of preps he has coming into the race has nothing to do with the distance.  But it has to do with his chances of running a new top.

The horse can or can\'t get the distance.  If he CAN, it doesn\'t mean he can win.  But if he can, and he also runs a new top, he stands a good chance to win with a trip.

You went off on a tangent, if Practical Joke wins then replays, figures, preps, etc.etc.etc. all don\'t matter,

That is nonsense.  You have been on this board for a long time to not look at PJ\'s sheet and know he has about a perfect string of 6 races as you can have going into the Derby.  Him winning is HARDLY illogical.

He has a major hurdle.  But is a Grade 1 winner with an excellent 2 year old foundation and despite what you might think, has gone FORWARD with distance this year.  

And he is 15-1.

[Strike]

How do you explain his hanging last race. No question he hung. Distance? Short? Didn\'t want to pass. I liked him a lot last time. I fear he just didn\'t want to pass the winner.

[jimbo66]

Strike

He lost 47 feet of ground to the winner.

U can call that distance limitation if u like

Or a bad trip

Or maybe both

At 15-1, I am going for bad trip as the reason

At 9/2 I would say distance limitations

Good luck

Jim

[jbelfior]

Jim,
Agree with the good looking sheet. As good as any in the race. If my eyes were looking only at that, then he\'s a major player.

Watching replays of his 2 turn races however shows me a horse that I cannot see moving up as the distances increase.  

Then again it\'s Chad Brown and this is as wide open as I\'ve ever seen.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[P-Dub]

15-1 on a horse with arguably the best looking sheet in the race.

If you\'re going to pick nits with this horse, then you may as well pass the race. You\'re gonna find warts with all of them.

If Mccracken takes too much action, I would have no problem at all making this horse a major key.

[sekrah]

I concur on PJ. There\'s knocks but more pros than most of the field.  One of the few overlays I see as of right now.