Most likely winner

[jbelfior]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 15-1 on a horse with arguably the best looking
> sheet in the race.
>
> If you\'re going to pick nits with this horse, then
> you may as well pass the race. You\'re gonna find
> warts with all of them.
>
> If Mccracken takes too much action, I would have
> no problem at all making this horse a major key.


If it wasn\'t the Derby,I would pass on it. Saturday is Christmas and all degenerate horseplayers looking for 3 wise men to give them the most likely winner. Why else would we all read a thousand posts on one race.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[metroj]

fwiw, Trakus from the Keeneland site has difference in distance traveled between Irap and PJ as 20 feet, 6014 to 6034.

[jerry]

It\'s tedious for me and easier for the host to do. I expect him to provide that information in the seminar.

[boardedup]

He had every chance to pass and should have.  That stretch run is the only thing keeping me from pouncing.  But I certainly don\'t hate him and like you say at 15-1 there\'s plenty of value.  But he has to win that race last out?

[jimbo66]

Boarded up,

I don\'t know.   Pretty sure there is some good material on this forum from a few years back where I said that super saver has no shot to win the derby when he couldnt pass line of David, a slow horse, in the Arkansas derby.

SekRah, Michael D and a few others liked his pattern, his 2 year old top at CD and his progressive 3 year old line

We know how that turned out.

Not saying it is the same thing, but the number is the number

Jim

[boardedup]

Yeah, I\'m not saying he has no shot. I like him a fair amount myself, but not passing the maiden the entire length of the stretch is what has been keeping me from fully being able to commit.

 Honestly I can\'t remember a year when I was fence sitting this hard the day before the draw.  Tomorrow is usually conformation or toss, this year I\'m still studying? None without issues..

[jbrown007]

The main play on super saver was the tactical speed and trip... he was the best candidate to run his number based on his running style. I see nothing off that sort for practical joke. I see a great thoro sheet and almost assuredly another bad trip.

[jerry]

If that was an off track then they don\'t have mud.

[jerry]

BTW, a pair up won\'t get it done.

[sekrah]

After doing some of my voodoo figure adjusting this morning, I\'m going to have a very hard time leaving Practical Joke out of my \"A\" list if he draws well today.  That\'s a healthy looking race horse right there.