Oaks - Post Sheets Review

[jimbo66]

Won\'t give away specific proprietary information in case some haven\'t bought the sheets yet, but boy is the Oaks a headache.  I thought this race was tough before I saw the sheets, but it is worse, much worse, after you review the sheets.  Very much looking forward to the seminar to shed some light on this race.

A few points:

1.  The lack of disparity between the last figures of Miss Sky Warrior and Paradise Woods would give those that occasionally question the TG California route figures a lot of ammo.

2.  The two favorites are so much faster than the rest it makes the race tough.  One drew well and the other has enough early speed to not lose much ground.

3.  Logical alternatives drew posts 13 and 14.

4.  I guess for vertical players, using Lockdown to get into the triple isn\'t the worst idea.  Have a hard time seeing her as a win candidate, but the inside post, steady improvement and a HOF trainer.  (but if you are a bit skeptical of how fast the Gazelle was scored, that makes Lockdown look less good.

5.  This is a big \"if\", but if both favorites bounce off their big numbers, just about anybody can win this race.  With the other fast horses either outside, or so heavily raced they don\'t seem like they can move forward (Farrell), the race becomes wide open.

Anybody got any bright ideas on this race?  

Jim

[ajkreider]

Concerning 3, not sure how big of a deal it is that Salty is wide.  She\'s come off the pace in all of her races.  That said, in her last Rosario did what he could to make sure she lost as much ground as possible.

[jbrown007]

As I posted Tasman was sick when baffert got her so she missed some time. Doesn\'t look like the last race took much out of her as baffert worked her 8 days later. Third race of cycle for top trainer. She has won at three tracks already. Not sure where she will end up with that post but I\'ll decide what to do with her after seminar.

[Strike]

Not wanting to make another weather post -- but -- the track will definitely be off and maybe big time off. I know the number is the number but not on a mess of a track. Makes for an even tougher read.

[bellsbendboy]

No bright ideas but am perplexed at your phrases \"two favorites\" and \"both favorites\".  Certainly expect the Mandella filly to be a solid choice, then I see a trio at similar odds.

Paradise Woods cold cocked her field, yet this bunch, this oval, provides substantial hurdles to overcome.  Nice that she races in her deceased former owner/breeder colors, yet she seems a bet against.

In short, a pair of very quick accomplished fillies who are no stranger to the Bill Dailey are outside her, made her debut in late in late January, and more salient she looks very lightly made and it will take all of Papa Bear\'s magic to keep weight on this one after the cross country voyage.  bbb

[TGJB]

Viewed in a certain light, your posts could be conceptual art. Self parody. Being There, Herman Cain, like that.

[boardedup]

Farrell.  The sloppier it is, the more I like her.  Training great, I think she\'s most likely to run her race regardless of the less than ideal conditions.  I feel like there\'s a good chance she drifts up a little as well do to the \"high mileage\" she sports.

The draw kind of messes up my exotics plans though.  Maybe 7 w/ 2,4 and reversed?