Practical Joke

[jerry]

Outside looking in. Will need a heady ride. At least he\'ll have clear sailing into the first turn, albeit wide.

[jimbo66]

Not a good post for a horse that loses ground in 8 horse fields and has a jockey with no sense of ground loss.

That said, all the speed drawing in the first 7 or 8 posts (except IWC) would seem to increase the chances for a fast pace and spread out field which will lessen ground loss in general for the race.

McCracken at 5-1 ML.   Yuck.    Glad TGJB talked me out of 15-1 futures bet two weeks back.....

Jim

[jerry]

McC is about 10% to run a new top which he\'ll have to do to win. At 5-1, I just can\'t use him.

[big18741]

Frank might need to adjust that over/under #.

[jerry]

Wynn has him at 8-1.

[jimbo66]

McCracken is quite a bit more than 10% to run a new top.

Maybe double that?

But at 5-1, I don\'t disagree with your conclusion

Jim

[jerry]

What\'s your reason? My study shows of horses coming in with just 2 preps and a pattern of Top-Pair, only 3 out of 22 ran new tops. That\'s about 13%. Here\'s the data

Top-Pair

05
Sharp Humor        X

07
Any Given Saturday P
Sam P.             P

09
Dunkirk.           X
Hold Me Back.      X

10
Makemusicforme.    T
Discreetly Mine.   X
Awesome Act.       X

11  
Brilliant Speed.   T

12
Gemologist.        X
Trinniberg.        X

13
Giant Finish.      P

14
General A Rod.     X
Tapiture.          X

15
Firing Line.       T
Carpe Diem.        X
Bolo               O
Far Right.         O

16
Exaggerator.       P
My Man Sam.        O
Outwork.           X
Whitmore.          X


Starts.           22
Tops.              3
Pairs.             4
Offs.              3
X.                12

[jbrown007]

Agree greater then 10%. I also don\'t pay much attention to the morning line. 5-1 is just wrong. More likely 8-1 or 9-1

[jimbo66]

Jerry

He was a short horse in the bluegrass.   Missed time and it showed.   He will move forward Saturday

I see your stats.  And they look right.   But what do u have, 6 Pletcher horses on that list?   I like thoro patterns and stats, but u also have to look at individual horses and trainers

Wilkes will have McCracken ready to run, will be sharper this time, training like a bear at a track he likes

All that said, the value isn\'t there for me if he goes off at 5-1.  He might be fast Saturday but he has t been fast yet.

This race got suddenly ugly for me.   Tough post for PJ.  

I actually think 17 for IWC is ok, which is counterintuitive to a degree, but with motion wanting this horse to rate like in the wood, drawing well outside the inside speed with a long run to the turn could be ok.

Jim

[ajkreider]

As I recall, I\'ll Have Another won from that post with a similar style  (running a 1, I think).

[BitPlayer]

In order to make the morning line foot, you have to assume a takeout of 27%.

[SoCalMan2]

BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> In order to make the morning line foot, you have
> to assume a takeout of 27%.

Are you saying that the ML is made incorrectly meaning it does not add up right?  If that is what you mean and you are right, that strikes me as fairly scandalous

[Furious Pete]

Edit: What\'s confusing to me is that the \"book\" adds up to 138 %, i.e if you\'re converting the projected M/L odds into percentages you get a total of 138 %. If you take away 27 % from those M/L\'s, you get about 189 %. That doesn\'t seem right. So it seems like the takeout is already factored in, as it should, and then some?

[BitPlayer]

Do most morning lines add up?  I don\'t know.  I have had the impression that linemakers are generally conservative so as not to embarrass the owners of longshots (or their trainers).  I think it would be more scandalous if the morning lines routinely advertised odds higher than bettors were likely to get.  Look at the abuse Travis Stone took on this board during the Spa meet last summer.

[BitPlayer]

Pete -

Note that 100 is roughly 73% (100 minus 27) of 138.