Field is set

[Airnate012]

1. Lookin at Lee - 20/1
2. Thundersnow - 20/1
3. Fast and Accurate - 50/1
4. Untrapped - 30/1
5. Always Dreaming - 5/1
6. State of Honor - 30/1
7. Girvin - 15/1
8. Hence - 15/1
9. Irap - 20/1
10. Gunnevera - 15/1
11. Battle of Midway - 30/1
12. Sonneteer - 50/1
13. J Boys Echo - 20/1
14. Classic Empire - 4/1
15. McCraken - 5/1
16. Tapwrit - 20/1
17. Irish War Cry - 6/1
18. Gormley - 15/1
19. Practical Joke - 20/1
20. Patch - 30/1


Interesting to see that the speed drew inside.

[jbrown007]

I\'m not so sure the so called \"speed\" drawing inside really leads to a faster pace. None of them will have to be used to get position much in my opinion. I find the pace gets hot when horses outside are sent. Let\'s not forget that none of these so called \"speed\' horses are need the lead type. I think they all get good trips now since they wont have to use a ton of horse to get over and they shouldn\'t have a problem clearing the field.

[Al Caught Up]

Man, I hope Patch\'s good eye is on the left side...

[Airnate012]

Larry Collmus:

\"Patch broke out and is now headed towards the grandstands....\"

[jerry]

It\'s not.

[Airnate012]

Hopefully Patch doesn\'t pull a Bayern.

[Niall]

Until Thoro-Graph provides figs for Tops-Pairs-X\'s based on pp (do they) here is some probably irrelevant information regarding such. Almost everybody is aware of the 1 and 20 stats but ... # 2 actually has a longer drought but WPS % is 26% while # 1 is 0%. 5,8,13 and 16 are all above 30% to hit the board. 6 and 10 are 25%, while 15 and 18 are just under 20%. 1 and 9 are 0%. 3, 14, and 20 are around 10%. 7,11,17 and 19 hover around 5%.

Until the seminar ...

[BitPlayer]

There are some flaws in this data, but just to give you a general idea:

Posts 1-5
Top: 6.5%
Pair: 24.7
Off: 23.7
X: 45.2

Posts 6-10
Top: 7.4
Pair: 20.0
Off: 29.5
X: 43.2

Posts 11-15
Top: 11.0
Pair: 20.9
Off: 23.1
X: 45.1

Posts 16-20
Top: 13.6
Pair: 19.7
Off: 21.2
X: 45.4

From a TG number perspective, it looks like outside posts may be a little better.  In terms of getting to the finish line first, however, there is also additional ground loss from outside posts to consider.

[P-Dub]

You also have to account for the quality of each horse in the data, and how likely in the first place they were going to regress/pair/top.

I don\'t think there is much relevance in data like this.

[P-Dub]

I\'ll wait for JB, but according to these MLs - if they go off close to them- PJ is a must use all over the place for me. Tapwrit also seems like solid value.

[BitPlayer]

P-Dub -

The counter argument is that such things tend to even out if the sample size is large enough.  In this case the samples are around 90 for the inside 15 posts and 65 for the outside five.  In my mind the data makes sense because the inside posts are more likely to encounter trouble as the field moves toward the rail in the run to the first turn.

[boardedup]

Agree on both counts, Welsh has been gushing over Tapwrit for the past week as well. Another that was last scene not running at all though, still, there\'s way to much value there.  The Bluegrass really muddy\'s the water this year?

[sekrah]

The data is perfectly logical. Outside horses are less likely to run into traffic trouble and get banged around. They are more likely to run their figure.

[P-Dub]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The data is perfectly logical. Outside horses are
> less likely to run into traffic trouble and get
> banged around. They are more likely to run their
> figure.


Nobody is disputing that. Most people would agree outside horses have less traffic.

But these numbers don\'t take into account at all how likely those horses were going to pair/top/regress in the first place.

Similar to PP analysis and how they finish

[sekrah]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> sekrah Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > The data is perfectly logical. Outside horses
> are
> > less likely to run into traffic trouble and get
> > banged around. They are more likely to run
> their
> > figure.
>
>
> Nobody is disputing that. Most people would agree
> outside horses have less traffic.
>
> But these numbers don\'t take into account at all
> how likely those horses were going to
> pair/top/regress in the first place.


If the sample size is going back to 1997, there should be 100 horses in each five-post spread.  That\'s enough of a sample to evenly spread out the likely movers and X\'ers.