Derby pace question

[rezlegal]

Given the apparent view that the Derby will have a fast pace with much of it drawn inside,  am interested in the Board\'s view of 1. who has the lead going into and coming out of first turn and 2. is lead uncontested,i.e. more than a length.

[Tavasco]

While it is not obvious to me, based on previous efforts which doesn\'t mean they will be duplicated Sat those capable if they want to lead early are:

IWC, BOM, Gormley, CE

From the perspective of wanting to lead and giving up all chances later I expect

F&A, IRAP, State of Honor

My best guess is State Of Honor leads but not by much. Any clearing by a length would surprise but IWC is capable.

[jimbo66]

Tavasco,

Not sure what PPs you are looking at, but listing Gormley and Classic Empire as possible horses on the lead, and leaving out Always Dreamin is off kilter.

Zero shot that Gormley or Classic Empire are on the lead.

I actually am worried that the pace won\'t be as fast as originally expected.  Always Dreamin should send, along with Fast and Accurate, Stately Honor and maybe Irap.  IWC will take an outside stalk trip, like he just did in the Wood.

Maybe with Frenchie off and Lezcano on, Stately Honor leads early?  But it isn\'t real clear.

And it isn\'t clear that it is going to be fast, which could be trouble for the outside posts.

Jim

[Tavasco]

Jimbo - I did not post that Gormley or Classic Empire would be on the lead.

My opinion is they are in a group that has demonstrated better early speed than others should they choose to lead they could.

My own pace ratings.

[boardedup]

I\'d agree that Gormley isn\'t \"on\" the lead based on how they have been training him the past few weeks, but still, I fully expect that he\'s right up there pressing or sitting just behind the leader(s) depending on how fast they go early.

Victor seems to have the ability to put his horse in the clear right behind the pace in the derby regularly.  And Gormley has always been forwardly placed if not on the lead in all his races.  Knowing that he has a horse that will get the distance I fully expect VE to put his horse in the same basic spot as CC and AP, out of trouble right off the leaders or in the second flight, the exception being this one will likely \"grind\" home.  

Please don\'t get this post confused, I\'m in no way comparing Gormley to CC or AP as a race horse.  Just early speed/jockey/preferred running styles, and breaking from the same post as AP broke from I expect the tactics to be similar in the early going.

FWIW while we\'re talking about it, I see AD having a similar post situation to CC\'s in his derby w/ Samaraat to the outside and Danza and Uncle Sigh to his inside, not need the leads by any means but horses who liked to be forwardly placed as I recall.  AD is up against more pure speed for sure, but the break situation seems similar to me, though my memory isn\'t the strongest around here, others might have a better recollection of how that race was ran.

[Tavasco]

With regard to AD, I question his gate speed? Without a sharp break he could get into traffic quick. Plus I\'m yet to be convinced who will be making the decisions Horse of Jockey?

[jerry]

The pace scenario this year is interesting with most of the speed grouped inside and in almost every other gate it seems from 2 out. They should have plenty of room at the start and plenty of time to take their positions going into the first turn.

In this group I\'d group:

FAST AND ACCURATE
ALWAYS DREAMING
STATE OF HONOR
IRAP

Other early lead types who drew wide will be forced to take back a bit. In that group I\'d put:

BATTLE OF MIDWAY
IRISH WAR CRY
ROYAL MO

Still no foreseeable trip trouble here.

The next flight will be the most crowded flight and could result in some bunching into the first turn with some left out to dry. Make or break for some in this group with the widest post positions needing to improvise. In this group I\'d put:

THUNDER SNOW (who could get a dream trip drafting in behind the first flight)
UNTRAPPED
GIRVIN
J BOYS ECHO
CLASSIC EMPIRE
MCCRAKEN
TAPWRIT
GORMLEY (could be in first flight)
PRACTICAL JOKE (in trouble already)
PATCH

The last group will be one run closers who, I think will be at a disadvantage due to a moderate pace carrying most of the first flight well into the second turn and second fighters making their move around that turn. Dead closers are going to have to thread the needle or go way wide.

In this group I put:
LOOKIN AT LEE (who should be 1w around turn 1)
HENCE
GUNNEVERA
SONNETEER

Moral to the story is first flighters chances are upgraded due to a controlled pace. Second flighters who drew wide are going to be challenged to get good position around turn 1 and therefore their chances are downgraded. And closers are going to have most of the field to deal with around turn 2. They may have to save ground until the stretch before swinging out and that will probably be too late to make a major impact.

Good luck to all.

[jimbo66]

Sounds about right.

Except editorial comments give away who you like....

\"dream trip\" for Thunder Snow?

Of all the horses eligible for a dream trip, you singled him out?

Ugh.  How have the Dubai shippers done for the last 20 years?  

Hey, he is a longshot and who knows, if lasix moves him up 3 points or so, he could have a shot with a trip, but that is a lot to ask.

Running 6 to 10 lengths slower than the top competitors here, while running against turf horses and then a non-competitive field in Dubai, means Derby \"win\" candidate?

There would be seem to be better longshots.

Jim

[TGJB]

I\'m not going to do the work, but the right question is how have Dubai shippers run relative to how fast they were going in.

[jbelfior]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sounds about right.
>
> Except editorial comments give away who you
> like....
>
> \"dream trip\" for Thunder Snow?
>
> Of all the horses eligible for a dream trip, you
> singled him out?
>
> Ugh.  How have the Dubai shippers done for the
> last 20 years?  
>
> Hey, he is a longshot and who knows, if lasix
> moves him up 3 points or so, he could have a shot
> with a trip, but that is a lot to ask.
>
> Running 6 to 10 lengths slower than the top
> competitors here, while running against turf
> horses and then a non-competitive field in Dubai,
> means Derby \"win\" candidate?
>
> There would be seem to be better longshots.
>
> Jim


Jim:
What do the Dubai shippers performance over the last 20 years have to do with Thunder Snow\'s chances on Saturday?

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[jerry]

Actually, I don\'t like him but I do think the race sets up nicely for him. He should have no excuses unless he gets trapped down there which he could.

[jimbo66]

Joe

One of us (meaning you) has decided that a history of trends that likely have a cause and effect relationship don\'t matter.

Pletcher 1 for 50 in the derby is meaningless (to you)

I assume Baffert\'s ability to get his horses to fire through every race of a triple crown campaign is also meaningless (to you)

And the Dubai horses running poorly year after year, don\'t reflect the quality of the UAE derby or the validity of taking that path to win the derby.

Horses with 3 vowels in their name winning is meaningless. When I can see trainer tendencies, number of preps, existence of 2 year old foundation and other cause and effect correlations, a good handicapper factors them in.

Not sure why this concept is foreign to you.

Your earlier post questioning the same thing with pletcher makes even less sense.  The guys MO and maybe business model has been on display for 20 years.  His horses fire fresh off the layoff, don\'t improve during a campaign, run better at gulfstream and are almost always over the top by the derby.

[Mc990]

UAE derby winners since 2000-

2 tops
3 pairs
1 off
2 x\'s

Certainly not enough to draw any meaningful conclusion... Either way

This one\'s sheet certainly prettier than any prior

[jimbo66]

Sure Mc990

But they are all slow coming in.  

I can pair my top.  But can\'t beat Usain Bolt doing so. Might even struggle to beat frank D.  

They don\'t just need tops.  They have needed 3 and 4 point new new tops to hit the board

This guy starts out 11 lengths slower than the fastest horses

And is the same price as a horse who has every right to run well off his sheet and has won a couple grade 1s here on dirt. As opposed to grass races.

[Mc990]

Agreed. He certainly needs a new top. 6 weeks, 1st lasix and paired tops may help. We\'ll see.

My main point was that the people who are discounting a horse just because they prepped in Dubai are doing so based on false tenets. IMO if a horse is good enough, he has every right to run his race until we see evidence to the contrary.