Introduction
The following write-up is a different perspective on the upcoming Kentucky Derby. It is an explanation of my opinion of how the race will unfold and conclude. I understand picking a single race without a context is contrary to popular technique.
The analysis based on running style. Note - I assign a primary running style to each entry based on my opinion of previous races and what I considered their best previous race.
The Entries
1. Lookin At Lee (S)
2. Thunder Snow (E/P)
3. Fast and Accurate (E/P)
4. Untrapped (P)
5. Always Dreaming (E/P)
6. State of Honor (E)
7. Girvin (P)
8. Hence (P)
9. Irap (E/P)
10 Gunnevera (S)
11 Battle of Midway (E/P)
12 Sonneteer (S)
13 J Boys Echo (P)
14 Classic Empire (E/P)
15 McCraken (S)
16 Tapwrit (P)
17 Irish War Cry (E/P)
18 Gormley (P)
19 Practical Joke (P)
20 Patch (P)
The Process
I selected one race for each entrant. A past performance which I deem representative of the entrants best effort to date.
I judged each entrant against other entrants of a like type
Best in type advance to be judged against other types for best in race.
Step One - E Contenders
Normally I would separate contenders into the four distinct categories. For this exercise I\'m only using three groupings. Lumping the one E type with the other pace factor E/P\'s Part B I\'m distilling the pace factors down to the top three. In this case: 1. BOM, 2.IWC 3. CE in that order. My expectation is that these three horses jointly and/or individually exclude the others of their type from being competitive in this race. I\'ll leave the following horses out of subsequent consideration.
2. Thunder Snow, 3. Fast and Accurate, 5. Always Dreaming, 6. State of Honor, 9. Irap, 18 Gormley
Note - this decision is based on my early pace figures not final time figures. The overriding consideration being if a horse cannot obtain its desired position it will be unable to run its optimal race.
Step Two - P Contenders
Differentiating P types is different than that of front runners. Remembering they do their best running in the middle and end of a race.
13 J Boys Echo, 08 Hence, 20 Patch
Exclude
4. Untrapped, 7. Girvin, 16 Tapwrit, 19 Practical Joke
Step Three - S Contenders
I differentiate S types based on sustained pace. Giving as contenders:
10 Gunnevera, 15 McCraken
Exclude
1. Lookin At Lee
Some Fuzzy Points Early in The Process
I designated Hence as a P while most would claim S. This horse is on my radar because, by my data, he showed pacesetter speed (by the clock) @ Sun so to me he\'s is a P not an S and c/b even closer to the lead.
Gormley is a bit of a mystery. Richiebee\'s argument is not lost on me. I don\'t think he will compete for the lead in this race so I am moving him on past the first cut because he is comparable to the other P\'s
Phase Two - Apples vs Oranges vs Peaches
Now I need to consider final times and some energy distribution Of The pace setting pack I\'m eliminating both BOM & IWC as horses who use too much energy early in the race to last in a 1+1/4 race. CE advances with a concern he could have compromised his chances by attending to fast of a pace. i.e. win the battle lose the war.
The Pressers
13 J Boys Echo, 08 Hence, 20 Patch
My figures indicate as they hit the head of the stretch the order will be Hence & Patch neck & neck with J Boys Echo closing. J Boys Echo/Hence is a toss-up which lost the most ground on the preceding turns? Patch not their equal late.
The Closers
10 Gunnevera, 15 McCraken
Gunne\'s FOY was so strong late and overall gotta go with him. Many like McCraken but my view is it would be on the come i.e. assuming improvement. If I couple that with my assessment that his final time deteriorates as his pace quickens I\'m not putting two closers in the tri.
All Told
My contenders CE, Hence, J Boys Echo, Gunnevera.
My bets: At least Hence both ways.
My concerns whether to include Gormley in verticals.
