My first take

[sekrah]

Could end up adjusting these before Derby day if I have any eureka moments, but here\'s how I see it

Likely Overlays in Bold

Gunnevera 15%
Always Dreaming 12%
Practical Joke 11%
Classic Empire 9%
McCraken 7%
Irish War Cry 7%
Tapwrit 6%
J Boys Echo 6%
Irap 5%
Untrapped 5%
Gormley 4%
Hence 3%
State of Honor 2%
Girvin 2%
Thunder Snow 2%
Lookin at Lee 2%
Sonneteer 1%
Battle of Midway 1%
Patch <1%
Fast and Accurate <1%

- The fastest horse in the race is 9 weeks removed from the figure, he drew perfectly, and is going to be 15-1?  Seriously, what else could you possibly want.  Easily the most likely winner IMO, but again, this is the Derby so that means you have about an 80-85% chance of losing.

- McCraken or Irish Way Cry just aren\'t giving me that warm fuzzy feeling.  IWC figures to react.  McCracken needs to move forward, both will be running wide.  A chance for both of course but not with my money.

- I don\'t get some of the fascination with Hence AT ALL. Nice he\'s never gone backwards but he\'s still a bit slow, already developed a ton from 2yo, and the price isn\'t that great.

- I did have Practical Joke ahead of AD, but moved him down after the draw.  5 is a better spot than 19.  Still very solid value.  Gorgeous looking pattern, he\'s one of 3 or 4 potential beasts in this race.

- J Boys Echo has a good race with a pattern where he could fire it here and a good post. If he runs his best, he\'s got a chance if others don\'t.  Same with Tapwrit.  Tapwrit moves up to 8-9% if the track turns up sloppy.

- I voodoo\'d Untrapped\'s last up a half point due to a poor jockey ride. That makes his pattern a juicy one.  Has looked VERY sharp all week.  Some questions about distance, but I\'m a fan at 30-1.

[mjellish]

GL Sek.  I don\'t like your top choice at all and I like a few at the bottom of your list to fill out the verticals.  So I see this one very differently than you and am guessing we both don\'t cash.

You like Paradise Wood in the Oaks?  My clocker says she is breathing different air than the rest of these.  No guarantee she wins and she probably offers no value whatsoever to win, but if you like her (or anyone else for that matter) and key with your top choice in the Derby you are probably looking at a pretty good Oaks/Derby double.

[johnnym]

Just curious why is Gunny the deepest closer of all have no mention of a wide trip,yet IWC and McCraken both do?

[jerry]

If you\'re suggesting GUNNEVERA as the most likely winner, it will be the first time since Swale in 1984 that a horse won after running an X in his last prep. That\'s a lot of history going against you.

[johnnym]

Recently it seems the only rule in the Derby is there are no Rules.

[Strike]

Gary Young likes her too. Kind of the same comment.

[jerry]

Then let\'s drink.

[Furious Pete]

Makes sense, as long as you stay away from those Mint Juleps

[ajkreider]

Thanks for putting this out.  Nice to see a very public stand, though I\'ve no idea how you worked the percentages.

Gunny will be on a bunch of my tickets for the reasons you mention.  Wondering if the percentages are to win only, or reflect the odds of their relative finishing position.  Agree with your earlier posts that AD could be a special horse, and he will be in on top of a few of my exotics.  But because of the bounce possibility I\'m not playing him underneath at all.  Win or nothing for him.  PJ won\'t be on top of any of my plays, but will be underneath on several.  

Can\'t see Girvin ahead of TS.  Slower, health issues . . .   Thunder first lasix.  Untrapped is slower too, and TS has the breeding.

I\'m with MJ in that I won\'t be placing any win bets.  It\'s just a very different race.

[bellsbendboy]

Hey MJ,

Thinking PW is a risky play at something to five.  A pair outside her with plenty of pace have collectively won eight stakes in a row;  PW has been two turns once!

One could make a very strong case for the Quality Road homer as a single in horizontal plays.  Positives include:  HOF conditioner and HOF pilot decide to put the shades on after an initial voyage.  Grade One winner as a juvy, ran faster than Irap who ran an hour earlier,  puts up a best of fifty some half with blinkers, then works a pair of seven eighths.  Off the shelf made \"bella\" run in her 3yo comebacker, stone closer will relish the expected lively pace. Lots to like! bbb

[johnnym]

I have a nice new bottle of Macallan 12 some cigars

[johnnym]

Would not be surprised to see the Oaks fall apart with horses chasing her.
Look for the slow clunkers to finish underneath possibly making for decent tri/ super payout

[jerry]

That\'ll make a nice evening.

[mjellish]

I get it.  Can\'t argue with your play.  I\'m certainly not betting her to win the KY Oaks at low odds off 3 lifetime races on what everyone is saying will be a sloppy mess (not sure if that will be the case) with Mandella as a trainer outside of CA.  And I can\'t play against her with much confidence because she\'s not exactly Dreaming of Julia either.  

Will have to see the track condition.  I May key her on top of a very focused tri play, or single her in the horizontals or pass.  Not sure yet.  Working on the under card right now.