Derby Day Track Bias

[sekrah]

I\'ve concluded a long time ago that if anyone sees a path bias on dirt tracks, they are usually imagining it.  

This is a ridiculous small sample of races that people are trying to discern from. Could there be a bias on a dirt track?  Sure.  But it\'s most likely a random fluke you\'re trying to pattern.  A shitty Mendoza Line hitting baseball player can go 7 for 12 over a three-game series and Mike Trout can go 0 for 12.  12 at-bats is more than the quality of the samples that people are trying to detect biases from.

There also could be biases over a certain section of the track.  On one turn the rail could be poor, and the next turn it could be gold.  The same could easily be going on with the back stretch vs the front stretch.  It could change from race to race depending on maintenance! How do you even begin to quantify detecting that with such a small sample and put it to use in your handicapping? A colossal waste of brainpower IMO.

The only absolutely detectable bias in racing is the rail on banked turf where obviously, wet grass/soil is slower than dry grass/soil.  This bias is the only one that I\'ve seen predictably turn up winners next time out.

[sekrah]

hellersorr Wrote:
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> Re playbacks from a Turf Dead Rail, didn\'t someone
> post last year at the same time about how
> difficult it was for horses who raced on a Turf
> Dead (I.E. Boggy) Rail to race well next time out
> unless they had considerable rest?


This would make sense.  A horse that runs fairly well on a dead rail actually had a much stronger effort than the figure given.  Therefore, more likely to react.  If they react, the time to bet these horses is not 3-4 weeks later, but 6-8 weeks away when they are coming back into form and recovered from said effort.

[Boscar Obarra]

There are people that think predicting horse races at all is a fools errand.

 So those that can do, and those that can quantify the bias they see and use it  going forward,  do.

 Claiming its imaginary only amuses those that know better.

[Furious Pete]

If one is going by the figures when trying to establish a track bias, at least one would have a much larger data set to go by. I don\'t quite see why that would be a \"deeply flawed\" way to go about it - at least not any more flawed than just trusting ones \"sharp\" eyes. There could be some problems in the figure making methodology that makes this approach problematic too, but I think Bias Bob raises some seriously good questions in his post.

Also a good point about biases producing bounces. If one define a bounce as a physical phenomenon, where a horse \"overextends\" or runs much faster than it\'s ready for, the bounce would be the reaction to that. I think herd dynamics can play a big part in producing these efforts, where a horse is desperate to keep up even though he\'s running against a bias. If he\'s wide too, that sure doesn\'t sound like a \"ground loaded\" figure to me. Note that phenomenons like these could produce \"perfect looking, bounce-proof\" sheets, on paper.

[FrankD.]

Boscar,

Glad your still alive😎
I was thinking of you the other day and was wondering where you\'ve been?

Hope all is well,

Frank D.

[Boscar Obarra]

Thanks Frank. No , still here .  Lot\'s of posts during Derby season, you don\'t need my noise cluttering up the joint ;-)

[T Severini]

belmont3 Wrote:
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> For pairs and tops, I used TG final figures.
> Regards
>
> Bob


Thanks Bob, probably missed something again. I\'ll check.

TSev

Found it...WHOA

Tough race to score sure. But WHOA

[FrankD.]

I\'ve concluded a long time ago that if anyone sees a path bias on dirt tracks, they are usually imagining it.

Please feel free to go back to March 5, 2016 string on Gotham Day. I imagined @ 3:46 PM (page 40) right before the Pick 4 kicked off that there was an insane speed/rail bias....

It\'s far too lengthy a string to re post but mjellish and several others with vivid imaginations all cashed a bunch of tickets that day!!!!

Most that have been watching races and know what they are looking at would conclude that day was THE MOTHER OF ALL SPEED BIASES. It was so obvious that even Bias Bob and his A+ game would have had to acknowledge it\'s existance

Frank D.

[Agastache]

The first Oaks day dead rail horse comes back today at CD- Wilbo in race 4.

[Boscar Obarra]

Frank, you may want to put quotes around that first line where you repeat Sekrah\'s wisdom.

[Tavasco]

Wilbo has routinely bounced back from TG -6\'s whether it was two weeks later or 4 mos later after some R&R.

So if this one runs well today it would be a leap (imo) to attribute such an effort to a dead rail on first weekend in May. On the other hand if Wilbo runs poorly. Based on this one data point contrary to a previous pattern I could conclude a dead rail will tire the poor animal out for months.

Alternatively, I have suspicions the horse is just not very fast on turf?

In any event thanks to Agastache for bringing it to our attention.

[Tavasco]

Chuckling Out Loud

[sekrah]

Oh, the inside horse won over a handful of races?  Do you have anything that is strong evidence?  There\'s so much speed bias around us that you need to go back 2 months to find a case where you think there\'s incontrovertible proof?

If you have evidence that it\'s anything other than a statistical anomaly, I\'m all ears.  Red comes up on the roulette wheel 6 times in a row and multiple times every day. The wheel must have a bias to it.

[sekrah]

Boscar Obarra Wrote:
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> Frank, you may want to put quotes around that
> first line where you repeat Sekrah\'s wisdom.


If you can prove it, show it.  I\'ll be listening.

[Boscar Obarra]

Look, someone has to bet against the inside speed on a gold rail day, so if you\'d like to be that person, who am I to stand in the way?

 You might even cash once in a while ;-)