Derby Day Track Bias

[sekrah]

T Severini Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Boscar Obarra Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Look, someone has to bet against the inside
> speed
> > on a gold rail day, so if you\'d like to be that
> > person, who am I to stand in the way?
> >
> >  You might even cash once in a while ;-)
>
>
> You know its not blatant where \"anyone\" can see it
> and say, \"hey what\'s going on here\"! But the thing
> is when the track is dryer towards the outer rail
> than it is towards the inner rail there\'s a reason
> for that, (Dang I love these Chelada\'s!), one of
> course is banking. Another is where the drainage
> is located. But for a track to be like that two
> things have obviously occurred/occurring. One of
> them is that you\'ve had significant rain. In that
> regard the next occurrence is cessation of rain
> and even the effects of sun! I\'m telling you I
> learned All this from Jerry and just watched
> closely after that!  
>
> Now this is where it gets really interesting, (at
> least to me), as the drying occurs the living and
> breathing track mutates from mild mannered Bill
> Bixby into the Incredible Hulk!!! Totally
> unpredictable! Well not really. You\'ll see the
> change in the final race times. When a track is
> sealed and very wet, man they skip to my lou over
> it like Dr Fager. But as it drys you\'ll see the
> times change and there is a point where the
> surface looks like goopy mud pie and when it gets
> like that theres a suction on the horses hooves!
> But what is most intriguing is that the track due
> to the banking and drainage does Not dry
> uniformly, (That is the reason I kept posting the
> Oaks and Derby replays but only a few like you Mr.
> Obamma understood what I was illustrating!). God I
> love these Cheladas!
>
> So where were we? (Sips Chelada), the track speed
> changes during this wetting and drying process and
> if it dries in a non-uniform manner at times
> certain parts are indeed faster than others,
> especially as pertains to path. That stated, one
> side can, say the homestretch side, can be of a
> different nature than the backstretch side. (I
> hope that\'s not confusing.)
>
> So in the end, it probably doesn\'t matter that
> others don\'t see it. But what I know for certain
> is that in the mid track post parade that goop was
> sucking hooves! (Sucks down another gulp of
> Chelada!)


Agree with a lot of what is here, but adjusting for track bias, Battle of Midway must have ran about an 8 point new top last week having run 3w-4w in the goop all the way around and beating 17 horses.

[T Severini]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> T Severini Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Boscar Obarra Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > Look, someone has to bet against the inside
> > speed
> > > on a gold rail day, so if you\'d like to be
> that
> > > person, who am I to stand in the way?
> > >
> > >  You might even cash once in a while ;-)
> >
> >
> > You know its not blatant where \"anyone\" can see
> it
> > and say, \"hey what\'s going on here\"! But the
> thing
> > is when the track is dryer towards the outer
> rail
> > than it is towards the inner rail there\'s a
> reason
> > for that, (Dang I love these Chelada\'s!), one
> of
> > course is banking. Another is where the
> drainage
> > is located. But for a track to be like that two
> > things have obviously occurred/occurring. One
> of
> > them is that you\'ve had significant rain. In
> that
> > regard the next occurrence is cessation of rain
> > and even the effects of sun! I\'m telling you I
> > learned All this from Jerry and just watched
> > closely after that!  
> >
> > Now this is where it gets really interesting,
> (at
> > least to me), as the drying occurs the living
> and
> > breathing track mutates from mild mannered Bill
> > Bixby into the Incredible Hulk!!! Totally
> > unpredictable! Well not really. You\'ll see the
> > change in the final race times. When a track is
> > sealed and very wet, man they skip to my lou
> over
> > it like Dr Fager. But as it drys you\'ll see the
> > times change and there is a point where the
> > surface looks like goopy mud pie and when it
> gets
> > like that theres a suction on the horses
> hooves!
> > But what is most intriguing is that the track
> due
> > to the banking and drainage does Not dry
> > uniformly, (That is the reason I kept posting
> the
> > Oaks and Derby replays but only a few like you
> Mr.
> > Obamma understood what I was illustrating!). God
> I
> > love these Cheladas!
> >
> > So where were we? (Sips Chelada), the track
> speed
> > changes during this wetting and drying process
> and
> > if it dries in a non-uniform manner at times
> > certain parts are indeed faster than others,
> > especially as pertains to path. That stated,
> one
> > side can, say the homestretch side, can be of a
> > different nature than the backstretch side. (I
> > hope that\'s not confusing.)
> >
> > So in the end, it probably doesn\'t matter that
> > others don\'t see it. But what I know for
> certain
> > is that in the mid track post parade that goop
> was
> > sucking hooves! (Sucks down another gulp of
> > Chelada!)
>
>
> Agree with a lot of what is here, but adjusting
> for track bias, Battle of Midway must have ran
> about an 8 point new top last week having run
> 3w-4w in the goop all the way around and beating
> 17 horses.

I\'ll be looking at the Derby many more times before the Preakness but my first couple peeks did not have Battle of Midway out of the strike zone. Will look again. Regarding the tops, I\'m going to plead the fifth.

[bellsbendboy]

Hey Frank,

Using the TAP maiden in the derby day 4th, to make a point about bias wasn\'t your best contribution here.  Remarkably well bred homer from Flay sprinted off the fence at 7 panels first voyage, certain death. Then was a solid second in one twenty one and change.  Dam, a half to the wonderful Duke of Marmalade, sib sold for seven figures, race void of speed...  

My main point, many cappers,lose sight of dirt bias by focusing on path(s), rather than the overall track itself.  In reality, dirt tracks are \"controlled\" by mother nature and track maintenance.  When a track is accurately labeled muddy front runners are generally screwed.  Looking at the ubiquitous, and poorly labeled, \"off track\" stats could not be any more primitive.

Integer players, generally put more emphasis on their figures, and eschew a change in distance, often a more important data point.

In fairness I did not see the race, only know he wired his field, at a predictable very short price.

On another note, Always Dreaming, to my eye came out of his race extremely well.  His weight loss is minimal, he galloped in the draw reins, his head held low, reminiscent of Run Dusty Run and was even better the next day.  Looks a simple exacta on top of \"Empire\"  bbb