Even? No Less.

[Tavasco]

Apparently Always Dreaming is already even money to win the Preakness Saturday. By post time I suppose the crowd will beat him down to 3/5. Hot Damn I say.

I\'ve been reading the ROTW advise its readers to bet against recent winners and equine celebrity favorites for years. Usually against horse I liked to win. So I more or less watched those races until I could fully comprehend the principal of betting against a horse that looked to have a hot hand and momentum in its favor.

This week I\'m using both hands to play against Always Dreaming. Speed Bias experts have made their case that he was moved up in the derby. The patient practical people are waiting for another energy sapping effort prior to piling on against him @ Bel.

So-called weather experts are claiming clear & dry for \"old hilltop\" Sat. I wanted to go public early before he gets jinxed by the post position draw.
I don\'t need to psyche the pacesetter or forecast fractions. I still believe in the wisdom of the crowd. I just think there is 50% probability that AD loses.

Next Chapter - Who will inherit the win and how many will beat him.

[JoseOcon]

I\'ll try to beat AD. Never bet the favorite

CE is too low to play it, maybe in exactas, tris

I like cloud computing as my selection, with new jockey and good start.  Excellent trainer and good horse

[boardedup]

I\'m far from saying I\'m against AD, but I\'m equally as far away from saying I\'m playing him, at least as far as a win bet is concerned.

Before the sunset last Saturday I said I liked a 3 horse tri AD,CE,CMM, not sure who if any gets the Key.  But I really took a liking to CMM in watching his race replays while handicapping before the derby, loved his grit in the stretch at Oaklawn, and CE had a litany of excuses last week.  I do think AD\'s the best of the bunch (right now) though.

 It \"feels\" kind of like we may have seen this show before,like deja vu or something. TAP & Super Saver/AD, the off tracks, the rail talk, the derby ml favorite comes back in two weeks, looking at lucky/CE and get their revenge...maybe?

I expect MOA to be DOA on the board, quite possibly going off at the longest odds of any in the race... but O\'Neil could be doing the \"Dougy\" with yet another shipper sitting on one?

Still way to many questions that need to be answered before I\'m ready to fully commit, but as of today, I\'m against the closer\'s.  That\'s about as far as I\'ve got.  How bout you, a horse or two for each hand or do like one in particular?

[T Severini]

boardedup Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'m far from saying I\'m against AD, but I\'m
> equally as far away from saying I\'m playing him,
> at least as far as a win bet is concerned.
>
>I really took a liking to CMM in
> watching his race replays while handicapping
> before the derby, loved his grit in the stretch at
> Oaklawn, and CE had a litany of excuses last week.
>  I do think AD\'s the best of the bunch (right now)
> though.
>
>  It \"feels\" kind of like we may have seen this
> show before,like deja vu or something. TAP & Super
> Saver/AD, the off tracks, the rail talk, the derby
> ml favorite comes back in two weeks, looking at
> lucky/CE and get their revenge...maybe?
>

Conquest More Money was dead game in the Arkansas Derby, taking on all comers before yielding late. Also he appears to be the only other established front end horse to challenge Always Dreaming. Have some questions about the nature of he Arkansas Derby track I haven\'t answered yet, but he\'s a possibility.  

As pertains to the favoring inside path on the Derby race, gotta keep in mind Always Dreaming is gonna make his own luck with his engaged style. He can find the part of the track that\'s best and Velasquenz certainly knew to do that during the Derby Race. Still, if he was advantaged by the path and has to be back in two weeks and regresses a bit that could be enough.  Super Saver on the other hand was a little less tactical. He rode the rail from behind in the race and it was clear his rail ride was pivotal to his  win.  Always Dreaming is a different style horse, albeit a smallish horse.

If you like Conquest Mo Money and I do based upon the conditioning of running at Sunland and his style of run, what does one think of Hence?  The latter will be coming from behind, but he waltzed into Sunland and ran a big race. He gets a pass on the Derby Run, heck most everyone does, still looking.

Now the TG numbers are not going to validate looking around. They are solid for the favorites, but in this one its gonna take more than Figs alone to convince me to ignore the others.

[Mc990]

I\'m willing to take a shot at double digit odds that Gunnevera can circle back close to his top... IMO he has legitimate excuses in the last 2.

CE looks very usable as well but where will his price end up... Especially in the horizontals? The 5-1 currently being offered offshore seems unlikely.

[big18741]

Do you think more ground helps Conquest Mo Money?

Same question could be asked of Cloud Computing.

[atakante]

Trakus shows CE had enough ground loss to cover the lengths behind he finished while eating mud and getting rammed into.  While the betting public has already labeled Always Dreaming the second coming of Secreteriat, me thinks CMM and more early speed may be his undoing this time while CE gets a nice stalking trip he couldn\'t get in CD. Expecting a more even finish with multiple contenders within several lengths if it\'s not a sloppy track. AD will have to run another top in my mind to repeat what he did the other week. Can he do it? Maybe, it seems he came out healthy and galloping well in MD. Let\'s see if Team Pletcher has another rabbit left inside their hat.

[Tavasco]

boardedup

Hm.. after sleeping on my rant, I\'m now thinking about using just one hand to bet with. My stand against AD is somewhat visceral and the appearance of Allday into the narrative as someone who can affect the natural order gives me momentary pause.

I liked CE and Hence going into the Derby. I still think CE is a capable colt and have fewer doubts about him than others. I loved Hence in Kentucky. His race on the other hand was weird bad. He actually showed run late in the going which is not what I would expect from a spent bouncing horse. I\'m making up some alternative facts pointing to either - he was homesick,  had stage fright or aqua-phobia.

Lookin At Lookin At Lee some as under appreciated by players but is not Exaggerator imo.

[jbrown007]

Can\'t say I agree that he has to run another new top. I also don\'t believe the Preakness pace will be as hot as the Derby. Even if Dreaming runs a 0 he will most likely have an ideal trip 1w maybe 2w at worst and win. Classic Empire would be the one horse I could see beating him but his conditions are even less ideal then Always dreaming with the loss of training, 3 week turn around into derby and now a 2 week gap into Preakness (also less likely to have the ideal trip). I need to see numbers on Conquest because he is the most logical horse to me with a nice trip to hit at a price. Brown\'s horse is nice but not sure I can see him moving much further forward in his short career.

[T Severini]

big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Do you think more ground helps Conquest Mo Money?

Not sure but have to say as critical as I was of Uncle Mo, I like his get to this point. This one has a Seeking the Gold mare and that\'s not all bad. I like Hence\'s pedigree more. Son of Street Sense out of a A.p. Indy mare. Of the Mo\'s the one I wanted was Royal Mo. It\'s a shame we lost him but the  Mo\'s are looking a little ouchy. Check Royal Mo\'s maiden win, who he beat and what he accomplished next. I mean its all relative right? But one tenant of making figures here is to do it off the horses. In that regard I wish Sonneteer had taken to the goo.  

If you\'re concerned about Conquest Mo Money\'s ability to stretch that last sixteenth that\'s probably a valid concern. However, he\'s run on some slowish tracks and thrown some good times. The Arkansas Derby track looks a bit faster and he wasn\'t able to hold Classic Empire safe, but it was his first race away from home and look who he beat in third. He\'s been toting near load and I kind of like him, will check recent works soon.
>
> Same question could be asked of Cloud Computing.

Candidly I have a lot less sense of Cloud Computing. Two inner races don\'t instill a whole lot of confidence. The Wood was a good race. Many handicappers thought Irish War Cry was the horse off the Wood and he was there but he ran a little wide and was probably sitting on a little bounce. Beaten 7 there not all bad. You\'re probably in a better position than I to analyze pattern on these two.

[jbelfior]

Cloud Computing reminds me of a 3yo that Dutrow trained. Ran in the Lookin at Lucky Preakness. Colt\'s name was Yawanna Twist who ran 4th beat about a length for the whole thing at a big price. Ran on the inner twice.

I used to play that angle because rumor had it back then that the turns on the inner mimicked Pimlico. Who knows. But I nearly made the score of a lifetime when Badge lost a bob to Menifee in Charismatic\'s Preakness. May have been Luzzi\'s best ride ever.

Those were the days my friends. These are not!!!!


Good Luck,
Joe B

[bellsbendboy]

T Sev you write \"wasn\'t able to hold Classic Empire\" safe as a determent?  Aside from the impossible trip at Churchill, exactly two horses have finished in front of the 2yo champ, both Grade one winners!  Rock solid racehorse.  bbb

[T Severini]

bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> T Sev you write \"wasn\'t able to hold Classic
> Empire\" safe as a determent?  Aside from the
> impossible trip at Churchill, exactly two horses
> have finished in front of the 2yo champ, both
> Grade one winners!  Rock solid racehorse.  bbb


No I wasn\'t disparaging Classic Empire for winning the Ark, but I haven\'t fallen in love with him either! The comment was about Conquest Mo Money but after my Ark day track review I like him even more.

Likely odds on for Always Dreaming and if you are lucky 3-1 on Classic Empire. I think he\'ll be a little less.

[hellersorr]

Well, if AD goes off at 4-5 and CE at 5-2, there are going to be some outrageous odds on good horses.

[Mc990]

In your haste to draw everything back to \"class\", you\'ve incorrectly labeled IWC and Gunnevera Grade 1 winners... You also failed to mention the debacle at Saratoga last summer but why let facts get in the way of a good story.

To me graded stakes and \"class\" are about as relevant as a Pitcher\'s win-loss record in baseball... Although I suppose there are still people out there who quote that stat as well.

Good luck