Even? No Less.

[sekrah]

Mc990 Wrote:
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> I\'m willing to take a shot at double digit odds
> that Gunnevera can circle back close to his top...
> IMO he has legitimate excuses in the last 2.
>


I like this thought.

[bellsbendboy]

Which \"debacle at Saratoga\" are you referring?  bbb

[milwmike]

That would be the Hopeful.

[boardedup]

Has the draw opened up anymore doors for anyone here?

 I\'ve been driving the CMM bandwagon for the past 6 weeks and I\'m not parking it now at a 15-1 m/l that I think will certainly go up from there, with the flood of public money coming in on the familiar \"names\" be it derby starters and/or trainers alike.

If AD\'s price action on derby day is any indicator, he\'ll be absolutely clobbered at the windows coming off a decisive win. I think he actually gets bet down, 3-5, 2-5 at post is my guess? Meanwhile CE\'s odds were no less than  shocking to me last out. This leaves me to believe he\'ll offer significant value again.  I think you get every bit of 3-1, 7/2, way to good to refuse in my opinion.  Any thoughts?


I was hoping CMM would draw inside of AD.  He was going to the front regardless so breaking from the 10 is what it is.  Not what I was hoping for but not the end of the world. AD was always going to be able to get to where Johnny V wants him no matter what, but the easier time CMM has to get the lead or right behind it,and the more ground saved, the better.

I think there will be a serious battle at the top of the stretch.  I think CC who\'s very likely to be over bet, goes away first of those up front.  CMM will go eyeball to eyeball with AD and we\'ll see what happens.  I\'m decidedly not in the camp of those who think he\'ll get put away easily. Logic would then say that it should open up for someone coming from off the pace.  I think CE gets the jump on all the rest and frankly is just better.  To me he\'s the most likely to benefit from race shape and dynamics.

The price\'s are right on the closer\'s though if you think it gets ugly on the front end.  Hence @ 30-1?  What about the Illinois Derby winner?  Can he workout a nice stalking trip for a piece on the improve?  I\'m on the fence again, is this a spread spot, or a stick to your guns,load up and pray kind of race?  

The prices will be there again this weekend to justify just about anything.  The quote that someone posted the other week holds true again, something like \"at 20-1 there isn\'t much you have to like about a horse.\"

[hellersorr]

I don\'t like CMM\'s post, either, for the following reason:  I\'ve seen too many horses in the outside post break out.  Johnny V surely won\'t want CE, breaking right next to AD, lapped on top of AD, so Johnny\'s gonna go.  If CMM breaks out at the start and Johnny\'s going, AD\'s on the lead and CMM is being hard-used to overcome breaking out.

Doesn\'t have to happen this way; CMM could rocket out of the gate straight as a non-North Korean missile.  But I do hate betting the outside horse.

(Apologies for a sheets content-free posting.)

[Tavasco]

From The Kool Aide Klan - Hence is inside AD in PP #3. The trainer said that Hence didn\'t like or handle the kickback @ CD.  One way to handle dirt in the face is to not be behind horses. Hence actually has enough early speed (early fractions @ Sun), should the rider/trainer, choose to used it to get position in the first turn. This may also be true of the ILL derby winner. (Edit - Oops I meant CC.) While a change in tactics for Hence would be unexpected, imo, absolutely necessary to be any factor Sat.

AD may go to the front and that would seem like the strategy but I, contrary, to trainer TAP am not convinced he is a good gate horse.

[big18741]

As opposed to CE who hasn\'t broken sharply from the gate since last year when he was 1st and 2nd blinkers.

[big18741]

The only trips that seem predictable are for Cloud Computing and Multiplier saving ground.

Cloud Computing gets a suck around trip in behind the speed and Multiplier a suck up trip from mid pack.

AD,CMM and CE if he breaks sharply are siting 1-2-3 in some order.

Cloud Computing has to be in the pocket saving ground.

No reason for Multiplier to get off the rail.

[johnnym]

No talk of the fastest horse TG wise.
He did move forward in the Derby and just may be sitting on another forward move.
Not a bad Jock either

[sekrah]

johnnym Wrote:
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> No talk of the fastest horse TG wise.
> He did move forward in the Derby and just may be
> sitting on another forward move.
> Not a bad Jock either


Shhhh...

[johnnym]

I am SORRY!! LOL

[sekrah]

Easily the best value on the board in the big race.  Let\'s hope he can get home for us!  Cheers.

[hellersorr]

Is this ultra hush-hush horse (shown in \"Race of the Week\") with the ultra hush- hush best figure (shown in \"Race of the Week\") going to get the same pace set-up as he got in the ultra hush-hush race (shown in \"Race of the Week\") at \"The Track From Where Big Figures Often Don\'t Transfer\"?

(I feel  like Danny DeVito in L.A. Confidential.)

Well, one of the deep closers has to get a trip.  Could be him.

[mjellish]

Oh... I don\'t want her, you can have her, she\'s too... for me.

I don\'t see him running back to his top here even if you view last as some sort of recovery line.  Price may be right and can\'t fault anyone for playing that way if you view the numbers and pattern that way.  But if you take him its a shot at best IMO.

[Tavasco]

Without Handicapping Pimlico today, Three (3) dirt routes. Two won by odds on horses. One was Dominant GTW and another was from off the pace with the 8/1 pace setter nearly lasting. The third and last race was a veteran maiden sliding down the claiming ranks who romped extending its lead inside on both turns. Clearly not a bad place to be but otherwise


GTW - Lead Gate To Wire
OTP - Off the pace
PTP - Pressed The Pace

Race #1 - GTW 4/5 winner sprint Turf

Race #2 - OTP 3/5 winner route Dirt

Race #3 - GTW Rail Sprint 16/1 winner Dirt

Race #4 - GTW Rail Route Turf 2/5 winner

Race #5 - GTW Rail 2/5 dominant winner route Dirt

Race #6 - From OTP 5F turf 3/1 winner

Race #7 - PTP took over outside on turn angle in to finish 28/1 winner 6F Dirt

Race #8 - OTP got up 9/5 winner route Turf

Race #9 - GTW 4/1 winner route Dirt.