Change of topic

[Chas04]

Interesting. Great call. He ran a tough Derby. Thought he persevered with tons of bumping and eating truck loads of dirt. Nostrils and face were coated over like cement walking back. When he turned late and split a few horses CE and and Lee had IMHO 500 times a better trip up to that point. That means almost everything to me at least in the Derby. He couldn\'t out kick them home obviously but showed some serious grit. I love as well in the Belmont....just is he fast enough I keep asking myself.

[mjellish]

Not saying I am betting him.  Just saying I think he gets sent with more early speed than usual.

[Chas04]

Yup. Makes sense

[hellersorr]

I have to believe that trainers of other horses with a modicum of early speed will be aware of Pletcher\'s recent Belmont history and will not allow a horse of his a lonely lead.

Re Irish War Cry:  If he goes he may not win but it won\'t be because Fair Hill-based Graham Motion can\'t train him to get the mile-and-a-half.

[jimbo66]

MJ,

I am often in agreement with what you post, but I guess I don\'t see the value in your point, if you don\'t mean the horse is \"live\".

YEs, in a couple of paceless Belmonts, Pletcher sent a few horses with minimal speed like Dunkirk and Commissioner.  I would disagree with Materiality being sent.  The horse was so disgustingly prepared and over the top, he couldn\'t get near a 48 and change half, despite having 46 speed.  Destin took a perfect pocket trip.  A Castellano special until the last damn stride.

As for this year\'s Belmont, there is enough speed that Tapwrit being sent or not is irrelevant.  If irish War Cry runs, he is way quicker.  Meantime is very quick.  Patch, Gormley and Conquest Mo Money all have more speed as well.  

Whether Tapwrit is sent or not, I don\'t see it affecting how the race gets handicapped.  Now, whether Tapwrit can run a big figure here, that is a question worth looking at.

Joe B - on a related point, not sure how the heck you come to a conclusion that IWC is distance challenged.  Distance Challenged horses don\'t run negative 2 at 1 1/8 in April of their 3 year old seasons.  The horse bounced off his first big figure in Florida and then bounced again in the Derby off the negative 2.  (as many predicted - me not being one of them, I used the horse).  HE has no distance challenges, at least none that we can see evidence for.  As a matter of fact the dam side breeding is awfully robust for distance.

[sekrah]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not saying I am betting him.  Just saying I think
> he gets sent with more early speed than usual.

I think blindly taking the horse who has the early lead in the Belmomt would have paid quite handsomely over the years.

[mjellish]

Never said he wasnt\'t live.  Too early.  I simply clarified to Chas based on his post that i wasnt saying i was betting the colt at this point.

[Wrongly]

In last 30 runnings of the Belmont there has only been 3 wire to wire winners!

[sekrah]

Wrongly Wrote:
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> In last 30 runnings of the Belmont there has only
> been 3 wire to wire winners!

Hrm I thought it was a bigger hit than that.  For some reason I thought Ruler on Ice did it but it looks like Shack grabbed most of the calls.  Guess AP, Da\'tara and stayers like Destin and Commissioner are in my head.  Nevertheless, I like horses near the front in this race.

[mjellish]

Da\'tara is a 4 letter word around here IMO.  Like saying seven at a craps table.

[jbelfior]

Another in the long line of Belmont winners out of races at 1 1/16th with strong pace and final numbers.

Destin barely missed being another one last year. That one still hurts.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[sekrah]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Another in the long line of Belmont winners out of
> races at 1 1/16th with strong pace and final
> numbers.
>
> Destin barely missed being another one last year.
> That one still hurts.
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B


Yep.. I collapsed at the wire with Destin.  Easily my most painful Triple Crown loss ever.  2nd would probably be when Ruler On Ice won.  Massive vertical score if the next 3 are moved up.

[johnnym]

Governor Malibu got pinched twice on the rail by the Rabbit.
That is the one that still stings me.
Always the next race.

[jp702006]

I feel your pain. I had Malibu wheeled up and down in exactas and tri\'s. I needed him to run 1st or 2nd and I would have been looking at possibly my biggest payday. Ugh, hopefully I get a better ride on my key horse this year 😝

[johnnym]

Probably would of been my biggest as well. Keyed him in the tri/super.