Top 3 TG horse

[OPM]

JB: can you tell us what percentage of races are won by horses with the top 3 TG #(let\'s say top 3 TG over the last 5 races)?

[TGJB]

If you define the question more clearly, I\'ll pass it on to our programmer, who may kill me. Do you mean average of best 3? The 3 horses with the best individual numbers? Give me an example.

[OPM]

I want to look at each race and find the 3 individual horses with best TG#, 2nd best TG# and 3rd best TG # and then run a query and find out what percentage of races they win.  You can exclude maiden races because there may be lots of FTS.  Also, I would only look at the horses last 5 starts and would go back no more than 1yr. He can also break it down to sprints, routes, turf, and dirt.
Thus:
top tg horse based on last 5 races within 1 yr: what % of them win.
2nd best tg horse based on last 5 races within 1yr, what is their winning %
3rd best TG horse based on last 5 races within 1 yr, what is their winning %.  
Then you would add these three #\'s.
I know there will be ties.  I would consider # within 1/4 pt of each other as equivalent.
I really don\'t want and exact # like 68.5% but is it 60%, 70%, 80%?  You don\'t have to do the distance/surface breakdown if it\'s too much work.  But if the top 3 TG horses win 80% of races then you can just play thoses races in which they look strong or use some other filters.

[Catalin]

JB:

I think OPM is defeining \"fastest\" the way Mandown would, the #1, 2 and 3 ranked horses when considering their individual best efforts in last six starts.  Same parameters used for the trainer studies.

I\'m guessing its about 50% on dirt, 60% on turf.

[asfufh]

Seems to me you would need a some sort of camparisons to properly assess the results like 3 best beyer number horses in last 5; 1st, 2nd and 3rd favorites in last 5; etc. Also, ROI on all categories. asfufh

[TGJB]

OPM-- I\'m forwarding this to Mandown, and it\'s going on the \"look at\" list, and then possibly the \"to do\" list. But not at the top.

Looks like pattern studies will make their debut with Saturday\'s sheets.