CLASS

[bellsbendboy]

Because of the extremely compressed California condition books horses dropping in class are almost always playable, regardless of numbers.

Yesterday was a good example.

1st  BE A LADY dropping four classes  $29.40

3rd  ARCH OF TROY  dropping two classes $35.80

6th  JENNY WAY YOU WANT IT dropping approximately two class levels  $19.00

7th  CUDDLE ALERT  dropping from Grade 2 to a two other than  $30.20

8th  GO GHETTO  dropping two classes $10.80

bbb

[TGJB]

How many others on the card were dropping? How many today? Post the picks in advance if you want to be taken seriously.

[jbelfior]

TGJB:
Alabama ROTW??? Already purchased your sheets. This one is loaded.....and tough!!

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[BitPlayer]

What is a \"compressed condition book?\"

[TGAB]

Handicapping Sar for Saturday w/the idea of doing the Alabama as the ROTW. That way the handicapping\'s done and I\'ve already examined the race. The ROTW should come quickly as a result.

Well, that ain\'t gonna happen. As JB would say \"it\'s complicated\". And I\'ll add a hell of a race.    

I think I\'ve found a live race for the ROTW should the morning line hold. It\'ll be up in a while.

[TGJB]

I think I saw it on the menu up here in Saratoga last night.

[richiebee]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> TGJB:
> Alabama ROTW??? Already purchased your sheets.
> This one is loaded.....and tough!!
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.

Absolutely agree Joe. Loaded and tough. A true GI, with all nine entered having
won stakes.

Keeping with last week\'s Soupy Sales theme, maybe we need to to call in Phylo
Kvetch to solve the mystery that is the 2017 Alabama.

The first element of the mystery might be why New Money Honey is not running in
the Lake Placid. The second big question is whether favorite/fastest
filly/never gone backward poster girl Unchained Melody can get two turns for a
trainer who has been cold at the Spa this Summer.

Since I am skeptical on question 2, I will go for two fillies from trainers who
have each won this race twice.

Lockdown, from HOF Mott, is a full sister to brilliant race filly Close
Hatches, who also raced for Juddmonte/Mott. Close Hatches was a multiple GI
stakes winner of $2.7 million in 13 races as a 3YO and 4YO. Lockdown moved
forward nicely after her \"nightmarish\" (never seen that description in a DRF
running line) Oaks start and, based on the fact that she has worked only
bullets for a trainer who doesn\'t ask much in the morning since her Mother
Goose start, I think another forward move is possible.

It Tiz Well, from HOF Hollendorfer, has interestingly fired her two best shots
when shipped away from her California base. She has kept company with Abel
Tasman, stablemate Unique Bella and flash in the pan Paradise Woods, three of
the better West Coast fillies. Thoro-skeptics will note that ITW reacted
(bounced and was rested) after her last big effort. I haven\'t complained much
about the Saratoga morning lines, but 12/1 on a filly who just won a GIII at
4/5 odds is a Travisty.

Other notes: top jock JL Ortiz has ridden both Mott fillies, but ends up on
Elate. JLO has won on 4 of 11 Mott starters at the Spa in the last two years.
Do not know if this was the jock\'s choice or the trainer\'s decision, but Manny
Franco will help the price on Lockdown.

Pedigree note: Queens Plate winner Holy Helena descends from Awesome Again, who
also won the Queens Plate, and then went on to win the Jim Dandy and the
Whitney at the Spa.

[Tavasco]

Saratoga morning line is apparently a free speech issue.

Richiebee points out JLO rides Elate with a morning line of 6/1. I\'ll add that Salty a filly she beat last out convincingly is 9/2.

My key concern is who will lose, how many specific TG points, in the race so we must estimate. Generally the frontrunners being the least likely to lose ground and the late runners being the most likely. However, front runners can beat themselves by using too much of their speed and energy early in the race.

Group (1) those attending the pace. Contenders unlikely to lose more than two points in ground and probably less. But risk losing too much energy before the stretch run. New Money Honey, Holy Helena & Unchained Melody.

Group (2) the pressers the second wave. Contenders who expend energy in a balanced way. Elate, Salty & It Is Well. These are key contenders because they add value to the verticals and occasionally win races where there is too much pace and they don\'t lose the two points in ground that is typical.

Group (3) the late closers. Typically lose 2+ points in ground depending upon field size. Lockdown and maybe Salty

Decision #1
Will the presence of Unchained Melody cause too much pace and beat all three I lumped into group (1). IMO No, Rosario should get her on a comfortable lead for a 1/2 mile. Then HH & NMH begin to pressure and they are both proven commodities and maybe longer prices.

So I see the exacta comprised of two horses from Group (1). Elate my candidate to fill out the Tri.  Note - I have not considered form cycle (pattern). That\'s on someone else.

The post time odds w/b crucial to actually constructing a bet the morning line is a bit Quixotic.

[jbelfior]

I put 100 horseplayers in a room. How many playing the Alabama? How many playing the \"Play the King?\"

That\'s not complicated.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[TGAB]

Have at it.

[Bet Twice]

I believe the intent of the ROTW is to showcase how using TG can help one identify overlays and teach people how to interpret form cycles.  If a race is overly competitive and/or doesn\'t have a lesson to be taught then why put up?  Just because a race is well known doesn\'t make it a good race to bet on.

[TGJB]

What he said.

[boardedup]

Brown\'s 45% Turf to dirt w/ a stout ROI over the past few years with a limited sample (5/11).  So he doesn\'t do it often but when he does it seems they\'re extremely well spotted. This one was cross entered Dirt/turf for last years BC, so this isn\'t a new idea.

She\'s proven to be able to carry her speed at today\'s distance (over turf though) where the other speed hasn\'t been two turns before (I\'m talking about the ML Fav).  As you pointed out, she should save ground and get first run stalking the pace (along w/ H H).

I\'m in agreement with your exacta picks, but I\'ll be heavier to the one on the inside.  Great race though, you could go a lot of different ways. I\'ll likely play multiple smaller tickets mixing in the 7 and the outside horse as well, but the two inside will get the bulk of my money today.

[jbelfior]

Doubt you want my analysis as it would incorporate other things besides performance numbers.

Not a big fan of numbers at a 1 1/16th or a 1 1/8th translating to a 1 1/4. Tend to look more at performances at 7f.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[Tavasco]

Sweet Home Alabama. Where the skies are so blue. What was clear to me 6 hours ago is not so now.

The Brown success turf to dirt is intimidating. However, I\'m reminded of the focus of Richiebee\'s post - Stamina and that has mussed my original simplistic view of the race.

Add in my misread of Lockdown\'s running style and my new perspective is not nearly as clear.

Now I\'m imagining a clever jockey using a BoRail tactic of reserving early and closing with a rush to catch the leg weary exhausted front runners.

Who is that jockey (are there any that patient in the age of GoGo Godzilla) and which filly is sitting on a jump up race? Ayeee the pains of complicating a horse race.

Could be I\'ll latch on to Awesome Again as my brain saver.