Keen Ice

[TGJB]

Deadwood was written by a horseplayer.

[Bet Twice]

So 8 horse in the last 30 years?  And what criteria did you use to determine \"good enough\"?
If people are blindly following some rule like a 5 year old can\'t win the Classic or that a 3 year old can\'t beat an older horses gives me hope that handicapping can still be a profitable endeavor.

[philywheel]

isn\'t 8 out 50 about 28% , that is good enough for me?
Better than 1 for 30  ??

phiywheel

[philywheel]

meant to type 8 out of 30

[joemama]

One needs to know how many 3,4 and 5 year olds entrants there were that ran to make an assessment .  e.g.  if there were only 8 5 year olds to run during the stated years (29)  then the number of 5 year old winners would be very impressive.
Conversely if there were 100 5 year old that ran and only 8 of them won , the meaning would be different.  But the fact that 8 5 year olds won out the 29 year sampling says they have a chance.27% chance.  That leaves 70% left for the 3 and 4 year olds.  To my knowledge no 6 year old has ever won the classic.

[jbelfior]

I don\'t think anyone is saying that a 5 year old can\'t win the Classic.

IMO it\'s unlikely, especially in the case of a Keen Ice who is slower than at least 3 younger ones.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[dsipes]

I doubt anyone can show 20 years of positive ROI.  His model has been very successful at previous Breeders Cups.  I know his model doesn\'t jive with the model(s) you use, but it doesn\'t mean his model is flawed.  Respectfully.

[TGJB]

I\'ve hit one for a lot more than that, and if it wasn\'t for that @#*&$ South American in the BC Marathon I would have had one even bigger. And in terms of the point under discussion, it means nothing-- in fact, the South American demonstrates the randomness in small samples.

Curious to know how big their ticket was, too. Makes a difference.

[TempletonPeck]

dsipes Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I doubt anyone can show 20 years of positive ROI.

I also doubt it! This should provoke you to ask yourself why you\'d pay him for it.

> His model has been very successful at previous
> Breeders Cups.

But not so successful as to be a money-maker?

> I know his model doesn\'t jive with
> the model(s) you use, but it doesn\'t mean his
> model is flawed.  Respectfully.

No, the fact that he disagrees with me doesn\'t make him wrong (correlation vs. causation!), but the lack of a positive ROI definitely points in that direction.

At any rate, let\'s start discussing the products sold by the host of the forum, rather than those sold by... anyone else.

[Al Caught Up]

Some frat brothers of mine at Drexel took down the whole megillah back in 2002 for just a few bucks, oh wait, never mind...

[SoCalMan2]

I have hit a large one by mistake.  I punched my ticket in wrong and didn\'t realize it until it was too late and my mistake was putting a 45-1 shot in where I wanted the favorite.  The 45-1 shot won as did the rest of the ticket (correctly entering my intent).  This was another one with a big time zone issue due to playing night races at Hollywood while living in Moscow, Russia.  This one went my way, I had time zone bad beats that went the other way.

[Sean D]

Ticket was 6,400

[Bet Twice]

Sorry, misunderstood your original post.  I read it as you saying that there has been 8 5 year olds good enough to win and none of them have.

[Bet Twice]

I must have misunderstood your original post:

\"Good luck playing a 5yo in the Classic. Unless the name is Zenyatta,no thanks. Check the \"Archives.\"

I took that to mean you were saying betting on a 5 year old in the classic(unlesss it\'s zenyatta) is a bad bet.  Perhaps you meant to say betting on this particular horse (who happens to be 5) is a bad bet.

[jbelfior]

Perhaps I wasn\'t clear.

I don\'t bet 5 yos (or older)in the Classic. Yes, it\'s a rule I have. If they beat me, fine.

And yes, I think Keen Ice is a bad bet in the win hole.


Good Luck,
Joe B.