6/25 Belmont, for example

[TGJB]

Last Friday at Belmont is a very good example of the kind of thing I discussed in the DRF Expo presentation, which can be found in the archives here. The track was listed as fast throughout, with no obvious weather until just before the last race, when it started to rain. To someone who doesn\'t get complete information about track maintenance, and/or makes the assumption that without a weather event track speed stays constant, the horses \"must\" have been running over the same track all day, in terms of track \"speed\".

In point of fact, an awful lot was going on. They watered the track before each of the first 5 races, and the track stayed basically the same speed (a little slower for the fifth). After the fifth they sealed the track, presumably in anticipation of the rain that came later, but then unsealed it again after the sixth (a grass race), and did not water the track again for the rest of the day. The track got MUCH slower-- by the end of the card, it was 12 points slower than when it began.

Now, accurate weather and groundskeeping info helps me piece together what is happening. But in the end it doesn\'t help me determine HOW fast the track was-- you can only do that by looking at the figure histories of the horses. And again-- if you either didn\'t have the info, or made the ASSUMPTION that since the track was fast and there was no significant weather the track must not have changed, you had to get it wrong. In all probability you would use what amounts to an average variant for the day, giving horses in the early races figures that are much too good, and later ones much too bad.

[Saddlecloth]

Good post, and it applys for any speed figure methodolgy.  I guess thats why its a game of skill, right.

[slakboy]

What about small- and medium-sized tracks without live ground? Is there reliable or complete information about track maintenance, wind, weather, etc. available?

[TGJB]

We don\'t have it for small tracks or all big ones, and I\'ll guarantee Andy and Len don\'t have it, both because they don\'t think it\'s important and, in Len\'s case, because many tracks are covered by guys watching on TV.

I do try and get that stuff when I can, but the key point is this-- you can be okay without it as long as you don\'t make false assumptions. I knew enough to rely on the horses and not assume the track stayed the same speed long before I knew why it was changing, and started focusing on gathering this info much more last year after I started talking to NYRA track superintendent Jerry Porcelli in conjunction with the posts I was writing here about horses improving, and track maintenance.

As you make these small adjustments over the years your data base gets tighter and tighter, and through the more accurate figures, changes in track speed become clearer.

We are learning more and more how to use computers in-house to help us, as well. I mentioned a couple of months ago we had set up a program to check the sprint/route relationships at all tracks. Well, Andy mentioned at the Expo he had come up with a way to make sure figures at all the circuits lined up correctly, and I thought about that a little, and we\'ll be doing something similar and accurate soon. We also have come up with something pretty far out to replace claiming pars even as a starting point (we use them for convenience sake only), which we will be implementing very soon, and which will help a lot with the European figures. For that one I want to give Connie Merjos a tip of the hat, and as always to George for executing stuff that is so far ahead of the curve it\'s not even funny.

[Josephus]

I\'ve been kicking around the idea of trying to come up with pace pars to go along with your figs, using the info in the DRF Simulcast weekly.  Am I just wasting my time, based on what you\'ve posted concerning on site observations?  And do have any thoughts generally on the idea of pace figs, whether they can be made accurate enough, do you factor them at all in your handicapping?  I\'d also welcome comments from any other TG user.  THANKS.

Pace figures are infinitely harder to make.  I made them in NY for a long time.

What makes it so difficult is that the wind, track speed in certain locations, starting gate placement etc.... can have a very big impact on specific fractions.

For example:

1. 6 furlongs might have 2F into the wind, 2 furlongs with a cross wind, and 2 furlongs against the wind.  2 with wind and 2 against means the fractions could be wildly different from a windless race, but the final times could be similar.

2. Horses rate. So you can\'t really project fractions with the same degree of accuracy as you can with final time.

Logic Dictates sells PACE FIGURES (and trips/bias) based on the Beyer scale that are very similar to the ones I made for myself. They are worth it even though the pace figure process cannot be as as accurate as speed figures. I buy them from Logic because of the great value.

[miff]

Is there a web address for LOGIC DICTATES.

[beyerguy]

try www.pacefigures.com, they are free

[miff]

attn beyerguy,
thanks I was intersted in track biases from the major tracks for the upcoming Saratoga meet

[TGJB]

I don\'t have enough experience with pace figures to have any opinion about their validity, but I do know some very succesful handicappers who swear by them. I agree with CH\'s first two points below, and you can find more comments on this subject here (including some of mine) by hitting \"search\" below, and putting in \"pace figures\".

http://www.logicdictates.com/

Here\'s an address.

Logic Dictates
PO Box 1924
Binghamton, NY 13902



Post Edited (07-02-04 17:35)

[HP]

\"try www.pacefigures.com, they are free\"

I tried this for yesterday, just poking around their site, and the one, dead certain pick I could make out with these figs (I looked at about six races) was Secret Crush, who won yesterday\'s 10th at Churchill. Short price, but it was helpful to know he could be keyed on top since it looks like there were several good bombs to use underneath (I didn\'t play because it got busy at work). They use a graph type format too!

HP

[miff]

HP, thanks, I honestly can\'t make heads or tails out of the figures.