New York bred slow rats

[Bet Twice]

Not exactly the BC but some interesting opportunities nonetheless.  Some observations on tomorrow\'s Belmont card:

Race 4 - The favorite, Fifty Five, looks beatable here.  I actually prefer Chad\'s other runner along with the filly directly to her outside.  I\'ll box those 2 and place a win bet on the 7 at anywhere near her ML.

Race 5 - Tough race.  Not sure what to do with the 1 - can Linda get him back to his old top?  Not sure how I\'ll play it but will include the 5, who I think could get back to his top and is an overlay at 20-1.

Race 8 - I really like the 8 as the second choice, who I think could pair up with the long rest.  I\'ll key in horizontal wagers - in Michelle I trust.

Race 9 - The favorite, Offering Plan, looks tough but there is no guarantee he pairs up.  I like the 3, who I think could put up another 3, putting him in the thick of things at 12-1.  Win bet on the 3 at ML and will back up with an exacta under the favorite.

Race 10 - Another interesting race.  The 4, who has taken money in most of her races, finally lived up to the confidence she received at the windows in her last.  Not sure where she go from there but will use her with the 6, who I think is the value at 10-1.  Will key those two on top of the 1, 3, 8, 9 in the tri/super.

Race 11 - Wide open.  Will spread heavily in the pick 4.  1,3,4,5,6,8,10

Pick 4:  1x2x2x7 = $28 for a buck.

I\'d welcome other perspectives.

[Tavasco]

Race 3 - I believe there is some value playing #4 Absatootly under #\'s 1 & 3 in ex\'s and tri\'s.

Race #4 - Don\'t see any value.

Race #5 - Watched #3 Twisted Tom w/o right along side Practical Joke not as relaxed but matched him on the outside. Anything close to last race should win bettable @ 2/1 for me.

Race #6 - 7 Inalienable Rights without too much ground loss s/b competitive.

Race #7 - 7 E J\'s Legacy seems an overlay @ m/l

Race #8 - I also like your #8 T Loves a Fight, #1 Bust Another could do just that and is an overlay to me ex.

Race #9 - #7 Black Tide\'s presence makes this race unpredictable for me, I agree #3 has value suspect #1 Cloonita runs 2nd to #5 Offerring Plan.

Race #10 - I like your plan. Would hate to see #5 bust your exacta.

Race #11 - Spread makes sense to me. Hope to see you alive and checking all the will pays in the last race.

Good Luck!

[richiebee]

Nothing like a slow rat rumble to whet one\'s appetite for the BIG EVENT two
weeks from now.

Last year\'s edition was run under cold and miserable conditions; no such
problems today with bright sunshine, temps in the low 70s, track fast, turf
firm.

RACE 4 TICONDEROGA F/M 1-1/16th Inner Turf

As Bet Twice said, the Brown/Castellano Fifty Five is the ML favorite, but
arguably no faster Thorographically than most of her competition. She won three
of her last four races for Tom Bush before being transferred to CBrown. CBrown
immediately threw Fifty Five to the wolves and she now drops out of graded
stakes.

Brown\'s other entrant, Ancient Secret, is among the faster ones here TG wise,
retains Irad Ortiz and is 8/1. Puzzling that she has not delivered for Brown as
a 4YO after a very promising 3YO campaign. Possible she goes off at half of
that 8/1 ML?

The one I am liking here is Feeling Bossy, going first off the claim for
Jason Servis and top owner Michael Dubb. Feeling Bossy is 4/7 at Belmont,
including two wins over Belmont\'s inner. According to DRF Servis is a 29% turf
trainer, strikes at a 21% rate in stakes and perhaps most importantly wins 46%
of the time fresh off the claim (of course most of this success was not
achieved when going first off the claim into a stake race).

With the two uncoupled Chads ridden by top riders getting a lot of attention at
the windows, and with Feeling Bossy being ridden by low percentage A Arroyo,
I\'m thinking the M/L of 10/1 is reasonable.

If playing horizontally, another I might use is Barrel of Dreams, who might
have a pace advantage here for Charlton Baker/John Velasquez, who have been
very effective together, albeit with a small sample.

[shager]

NICE PICK IN THE 7TH-HOPEFULLY IT IS GOOD LEAD ON THE P5 TODAY.  MIGHT BE ALONE ON IT