BC Filly & Mare Sprint

[dsipes]

Looking for some TG opinions.  Regardless of the TG figs that come out, should the figs for the fillies and mares that ran in the Ballerina prep be ignored or given less emphasis due to the slow fractions in that race and how weird that race was run? To me, it\'s not a race I want to give a lot a credence too.  Any opinions?  For example, Paulassilverlining.

[Mc990]

To me it\'s now or never for Carina Mia to break through... rumor of a quarter crack that interrupted her training prior to the Gallant Bloom and as you mentioned the slow pace in the Ballerina could give her 2 legitimate excuses.

Horse went favored in the same spot last year for Mott and the ship is certainly a concern even with the trainer switch. Curious to see the last two figures but I think the value will be there

[TempletonPeck]

https://www.thorograph.com/images/howto.pdf

Specifically, see: \"s_pace - Unusually slow pace\"

[TempletonPeck]

To flesh this out a bit more, yes, I think it makes sense to sort of adjust the figures for particularly fast or slow paces, as TG suggests.

That said, I\'d recommend being careful though when it comes to adjusting the figures.

For a more thorough discussion of the pitfalls/positives of figure-adjusting, you may want to refer to the many threads on Always Dreaming from the Derby run-up this year.

[dsipes]

Seems to me Paulasilverlining race two back would be more accurate of her true nature where she had the same type of pace she\'ll get in the FM Sprint.  But, unsure if TG recommends doing that.

[TempletonPeck]

TempletonPeck Wrote:
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> adjust the figures for particularly fast or slow paces, as TG suggests

Instead of \"adjust the figures,\" I think I should have written \"account for.\" I\'m starting to appreciate the value of a good editor..

[TGJB]

Any time there\'s an \"S Pace\" it means we disregarded the final time because of the slow fractions, and did the race off the horses. In other words, we have already adjusted for the slow pace and given them faster figures than the pure time would indicate. How you integrate those figures is up to you.

[johnnym]

Good info thanks