BC Longshots

[gteasy]

I\'d like to start this thread to stimulate opinion from my learned TG cohorts.

Catching one longshot in either a vertical or horizontal wager can produce a
profit over the two day BC festival.

I propose Mr. Roary in the Mile...this 4YO gelding has moved to a new level...
from a mile top of 4-1/2 at three, he jumped to a 3 at 1 1/8 miles fading thru
the stretch of the Eddie Read(at Del Mar)...then, sprinting down the hill at SA, he uncharacteristically rallied late to snatch the Eddie D, pairing his new top.

Running through all his listed works in Equibase, his turf drill around dogs on
10/22 superficially looks plenty sharp...from the 3-hole on Saturday, he might
snatch a second or third if he can move to a 1 while saving ground at his best
distance...he\'ll be worth another look after the BC should he falter.

[Tavasco]

IMHO - right race wrong rider I\'m attracted to Big Money Mike @ 20/1 ml. Go Go Godolphin.

[APny]

Dirt Mile: Battle of Midway
Had an awful trip last out and probably bounced anyway.
Top at DelMar puts him in this if “the juice man” isn’t allowed to juice in the BC. Otherwise they’re all running for second.

FM Sprint:

Highway Star doesn’t run a bad race and has the most gorgeous sheet I’ve ever seen lol. Seems like the kind of horse that does what it takes to win. She’s only getting better and better and connections should mean we get a pice.

[johnnym]

I was on the Battle of Midway bandwagon as well especially with that -2 at del
Then the draw outside really hurt him.
So I like Giant Expectations in the 2 hole running the same # as BOM saving ground Had a very nice pattern working until his last when he was fractious in the gate 12-1.
Agree about the juice man. No juice here maybe he comes back to a -2 or -3.
Good Luck.
John

[bluechip21]

Gato Del Oro

Am i wrong to think this guy might be a player? Has a top figure over the track and surface. From what I can tell, already has his bounce out of him. Blinkers off. California based. Always appear to get a good trip...

Also, I’m relativley new to the sheets (about a year). Would his pattern, 1-3-6,  constitute as a 0-2-X pattern? Or am I just missing the point there ?

[FrankD.]

Please ignore the idiotic post that was up!
I misread the 1-3-6 thinking the 3 was the top.......

I’ve been arguing figures with Jimbo & Miff for 3 days, brain is MUSH!

Frank D.

[jp702006]

If you were arguing with them, you should have easily prevailed:)

[johnnym]

Several Bombers in the Juvy Turf based on TG#s

[RICH]

zelzal is a nice longshot in my opinion. I like his 3 yr old numbers, basically better than any others 3 yr numbers, that means something to me.
In a barn with early season issues which forced a late campaign. He needs firm, compare the courses at Chantilly 2016 vs last race, watch the replays. He should love the Delmar course, with Lasix.

[Furious Pete]

I think it is Wittgenstein that is credited with the quote: \"When I came home I expected a surprise and there was no surprise for me, so of course, I was surprised.\"

There\'s something about these two days that keep bringing that quote to my mind. And I guess that will be my general approach this year; when life gives you lemons make lemonade, and all that. Rushing Fall, Mor Spirit, Masar, Stellar Wind, Lady Aurelia, Lady Eli, Drefong, World Approval, Gun Runner.. And Baffert. I don\'t think I\'ll be betting against those too heavily, and may even side with a few of them.

As for THE bomb.. I kinda like Ballagh Rocks, might try some exotics using him and World Approval. I think that zero is genuine. And I even think that figure before that one is a bit deceiving. A bit of voodooing and voilà, are one looking at paired tops? I guess not but worthy of a try at 33/1 in a race that do have that smell of chaos.

[RICH]

if he\'s 33-1, that\'s a use pal

[Furious Pete]

He is now: https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/international/breeders-cup-mile/winner

[Ace]

R6:  #4 Madeline 20/1:  Good euro jock not known here, and this horse first time at a mile I\'m counting on her being able to handle it.

R7;  #4 Gato Del Oro 30/1, sneaky good So Cal trainer with a really good jockey climbing on with a good post to save ground.

R8:  #10 Flameaway 20/1 Only turf tries both washed off, so this is his first on the green but won at first asking on the poly which as I recall from the So Cal fake dirt days was about the same thing as grass. Good trainer and patient jock who has multiple BC wins, including for this trainer (Tepin).

R9:  #1 Champagne Room 15/1  Surprised in the Juv Fillies last year at 33-1. 3YO with good early lick and should save ground. Last 5f work at SA was as good as the favorite Stellar Wind, and she gets a 3 lb pull over that one. She\'s 3-1-1-1 at Del Mar so she knows the place, too.

Since I have to work tomorrow here in So Cal, I\'ll play these in advance and check the results when I get home (and proceed on to study for Saturday). I\'m going simple and playing WPS on each Friday longshot, and also play a few pick 4 bets sprinkling these longshots in as singles along with the TG seminar picks in other slots.

Ace

[gteasy]

Two on Friday\'s undercard:

R2:   Lazzam shows two competitive numbers at Dmr at the condition, and
      paired his dirt top last time.

R10:  Paquita Coqueta is quick enough to get over by the first turn, and
      her career top last December indicates fondness for the course,

[Mc990]

A couple I \"haven\'t heard much about\"...

I\'m going to play Awesome Slew to at least pair his top which should be good enough to hit the board with a decent trip. I think he even has a chance to move forward as a 2 turn mile+ looks like it may be his preferred trip.

Ami\'s Mesa will be a big price and just pairing up makes her a contender... Bred to handle dirt so a new top would not surprise in the least.