It discourages me when a race doesn\'t develop like I expect. Sometimes I re-examine my handicapping. Usually I just shake my head and move on.
In this case, your interest in this race caught my attention. My observations are in retrospect and I won\'t be able to see the sheets until later to tonite. A few things do stand out to me.
1. Once the betting public beat
Pacific Wind down to 5/2 I can only hope the race became a pass.
2.The second place finisher,
Champagne Room, set the pace (for 3/4 mi) in no less than the BC F&M on a DEAD RAIL remember, and arguably figured. In fact I would say she ran a winning race - one to watch.
3. We are used to seeing trainers switch surfaces most without tremendous success. I\'m accustomed to watching dirt to turf moves on horses that just cannot stay close to the pace on dirt. Moving turf to dirt is a little more mysterious to me. But - I do recall the idea than PED\'s are more effective on dirt than grass.
4.
Pacific Wind pulled early in both of her previous two races, resulting in some ground loss. Bejarano seemed intent on not doing that again or the horse was dull. Dropping back early did not seem to help the trip whether it was jockey or horse is
. So c/b the horse is difficult to pilot or simply bounced.
5. Bounces and jump ups make our job as handicappers difficult. The case of
Majestic Heat is curious and the story of this race to me. Trainer Mandella, as far as I know, is not on the list of usual suspects. This is a horse that has historically worked fast in the morning. Not Baffert fast but also not like a turf router either. Maybe s/he should have tried dirt earlier. In this, only her 2nd try on dirt, it appears to me that she has jumped up some maybe quite a bit.
6. BB has beaten all of us at one time or another. But he has never cost me money in a turf race. Constellation has run some good races on dirt but 5/1 (imo) was no bargain as the chart bears out. Still time to catch the 2018 breeding season.
