FOY

[johnnym]

Free Drop a Scratch going to Gotham

[Fairmount1]

Avoiding the Chad Brown Magic?  

Or clearing the way for Team Valor?

[ajkreider]

Maybe avoiding the track?  Looks like one of those bizarre super slow days

[boardedup]

Shocked SP couldn\'t pass the 10 today? Not sure what to make of that?

[ajkreider]

Will be very interesting to see how JB does the day.  

The problem race is the stakes sprint.  These were experienced horses who run pretty consistently.  We can make a good guess of what will win - I\'m saying something zero-ish.  But the time was only a second slower than the maiden race to open the card.  It also seemed slower than the Davona Dale.  So I think JB has to make the track slowing down.

But, all these races were really slow by the clock.  The sprint was almost 4 seconds slower than the track record.  1:38 and 3/5ths is very slow for top level fillies in the mile.  The only race that was just slow, but not crazy slow, was the FOY - the last race of the day on a slowing track. So, the FOY should get a big number.

But, that means the winner jumped through the roof.  It also means the top two in the late maiden race posted big new tops - which JB will be reluctant to do, methinks.

[FrankD.]

AJ,

WHAT’S more astounding to me is that within 98 minutes you had an 11/10 exacta
& a winner from the 10 hole in 1 1/16 dirt races here! What future odds could you have received on DAT?

Strange day to say the least, one that had another group shouting golden rail speedway after the 2nd race which would normally not be a surprise on a big day at Gulf.

Below is something I posted early yesterday morning in a email exchange and really did not follow up on throughout the day. Didn’t bet early, a couple token wagers before race 10 was it for me and horizontals were already structured. It will be very interesting to see how JB does the day and how much
Ketel One he is driven to from it ?

Winds from yesterday’s nor easter have moved up the coast 6-14 mph, gusts up to 18-20 tops and should be less later in the day. Whatever wind will be in the face of the stretch runners and should not have any real impact. A fairly normal Gulfstream breeze. It’s humid 80% track is definitely subject to change via heavy watering so I’ll be watching a lot early as I’m sure per every big day it will be speed friendly at the least.

Clueless Frank D.

[Silver Charm]

Frank and AJ if the track got slower and deeper it will only help Good Magic down the line. Frank knows I cautioned on how big Magic would run inspite of the workout hype. His inital maiden effort was a \"kid glove\" ride and I felt like yesterday might look erily similar. A 2 in the first of March looks much better than a Minus 2. Last year Magic peaked in the 3rd race of his form cycle. They are probably gunning for the same thing on tje 1st Saturday in May....

[FrankD.]

Dale,

You were and are correct. I like many thought he was good enough to handle this task not fully loaded.

Chad and Roman’s outsmarted us all! Magic had a work out and added 10 points, with 34 he is pretty certain to make the top 20 already with another prep to move forward on and seal the deal. DR scratches Billy for an easier race, points and purse to take down and i’m Sure cashed a bet yesterday as well.

[Ace]

I have Tiz Mischief at 71-1 in Pool 2.  He handled the FOY winner pretty easily at Churchill in the Kentucky Jockey Club last fall. I think I have value.

[boardedup]

Romans is usually much better second time off the bench to.  It never occurred to me that he scratched \"Billy\' because he had a monster and on the outside no less?  

Not sure if the number\'s are out yet, but he likely moved up what 7 full points or more?

 I\'ll be interested in watching Strike Power next out though.  Not a bad effort first time stretching out, and I think he\'s setting up to have a real nice pattern heading into May.

[BitPlayer]

Because he was getting weight and saved ground, my guess is that Promises Fulfilled got only the third best TG fig in the Fountain of Youth.

With the slow figs and outside post, there is no way I was coming up with him.  Someone on XBTV said Irad had told her that he was planning to sit off, not send.

[jbelfior]

I have my thoughts on what was going on with Promises Fulfilled in the Kentucky race back in November. You can watch the replay for further details.

The other Romans horse nearly won the race that day. Interesting guy this Dale Romans.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[ajkreider]

I\'ll give you that it was a bizarre ride.  Never fully understood why jocks will yank so hard to get the horse to \"relax\".  And I don\'t recall any horse collared like (let alone three times) that actually went on to win.  Didn\'t look to me like the horse was pulling that hard anyway.

But, you\'re saying Romans instructed the jock to throw the race?

[boardedup]

You\'re right, there was some serious yanking on the reins with a horse that seemed full of run?  Interesting stuff. Especially in light of the scratch this weekend.  

I didn\'t think he\'d get the lead breaking outside of Machismo and Strike Power, not on that track.  I mean from my eye, that was an extremely impressive performance.  

So I guess the question now is, was \"Billy\" scratched to find a softer field, ie Romans knew he wasn\'t his best shot of the 3 entered, or was he scratched to help bring home his double digit odds entry?  Was he protecting the more celebrated horse or aiding the under the radar starter? Both?  What do you do with Billy now in the Gotham? He would have been second choice on the board almost certainly on Sat.  You\'d think that would only have helped the winner\'s price?

 A lot to think about,  absolutely gotta love this time of year!

[jbelfior]

I would like to think not. I had a hefty win bet on him that day along with exactas using the top 2 so I\'m probably the wrong guy to ask that question to.

I\'ll leave that to anyone on here who has a few minutes to watch that race.


Good Luck,
Joe B.