2017 TC

[Tavasco]

About this time each year equine aficionados develop hindsight. That is we begin recalling what happened last year. Does history (both recent and ancient) teach us anything that we can apply toward a winning ticket this upcoming weekend. but it is sometimes fun combing thought the archives and recalling thoughts we had last year or even prior to that.

So Always Dreaming won both the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby in 2017. Remember the Always Dreaming story. A nine point jump up to win in Florida and a conveyor belt inside at Churchill Downs to avoid any bounce. Work out videos  and their relevance.

It is sort of fitting that Always Dreaming is anticipated to meeting at least Irish War Cry and probably some other of his buddies from 2017 in the Gulfstream Park Mile.

A bit on the bounce. A phenomena that some of us use more than others. Certainly TG cappers and TGJB integrate it wholly and it is evident in their analysis product.

Last year the Bodemeister colt Always Dreaming  crashed and burned in the Preakness beating only my selection visually impressive Hence from the Sunland Derby and Term of Art.  Many here had 13/1 Cloud Computing who passed under achieving Classic Empire to win at Old Hilltop, raising a hoot and a holler. Bounce advocates said I told you so, track condition engineer minds said I told you so, TAP critics said I told you so.

Not long after when Saratoga opened Cloud Computing crashed and burned in the Jim Dandy evening up his head-to-head record with Always Dreaming at one and one. Subsequently a try versus accomplished colts in the Travers and CC was retired (?) a one hit wonder.

All this to get to my point I don\'t approve of TAP entering my 25/1 KD future bet Magnum Moon in the Arkansas Derby. Aren\'t the 50 points from the Rebel enough, is it the $1m purse in the Ark Derby? Is it that\'s what race horses do race?

Lastly, Richiebee, I will be playing each of the Japanese horses @ Meydan under the premise each continent i.e. major racing geography will have a winner.

[richiebee]

Tavasco:

Though I have been on a self imposed hiatus, I did read with interest about the
position you took with MM. After his Rebel Rebel victory, I just assumed that
TAP was headed straight to the Derby, because as we all know less is more and
it would be a shame for racing fans to be able to see top performers race more
than six or seven times per year.

Then I heard that TAP planned to return for the Arkansas Derby, the race which
supports the main event in Hot Springs that day, which is of course Shanahan\'s*
hospitality tent. TAP\'s announcement that they were returning to Hot
Springs sent me to the TG archives, where you will find that Super Saver (2010)
raced three times in 49 days culminating with his Derby win; Always Dreaming
raced three times in 63 days ending with a Derby victory. If MM competes at Hot
Springs and heads for Churchill, the Derby will be MM\'s third race in 49 days.

What does it all mean? As Edwin Starr might emphatically proclaim, \"Absolutely
nuthin!\" Because remember that when it comes to Pletcher and the Derby (and
preps), his runners have for the most part run to the \"Sinatra\" pattern, i.e
\"riding high in April, shot down in May\" (collective groan).

That is all from me. I assume one of your favorites, Thunder Slow, will be
competing at Meydan. I must go back to celebrating Monday\'s arrest of Keith
Raniere, a combination of Manson and Madoff who worked the territory up near
the home of Frank D. for the last twenty or so years; hopefully Raniere\'s
benefactor, the heirhead Clare Bronfman, will soon be shackled and cavity
searched.

------
*Shanno-- much the way the TAP pronouncement sent me scrambling to the
Archives, your statement that it was \"too cold to boat\" had me scrambling for a
dictionary. Although my dictionary says \"boating\" and \"boated\" are indeed
verbs, I think you have expanded our language in a rather wonderful way. Last
week my wife asked if I planned to take the ferry or the bus to work. I replied
that \"I am going to boat to Manhattan\". I\'m imagining the quizzical look she
gave me had something to do with English being my wife\'s (distant) second
language.

[trackjohn]

Richie:

Good to see you back...the \"Sinatra Pattern\"...love it...plus in this instance there might actually be a case for it!

Regarding the POS Raniere...if there is any justice, he\'ll be placed in \'general population\' along with that other POS the so called physician from the USOC.

John

[shanahan]

too funny!  There\'s still room for few more in the tent, as alway  As an aside, I\'m quite touched by all the personal emails in the last month.  Most comforting.

Crawfish boil on Friday afternoon eve at the house, all welcome.

Fun Day, come one, come all.  Ran into Fairmont at the REBEL - had to do a double take as he was not wearing his usual Cubs crap...still a good dude, just misguided in his baseball.
Go Cards!

[Airnate012]

I\'ll be down for the Derby. We have a little spot by the Derby bar.

[mjellish]

Tavasco, why don\'t you want to see MM in the Ark Derby?  Is it that particular race you want to avoid? Or is it a spacing thing in general?

Pletcher always pays attention to spacing, but he also knows/believes MM needs seasoning and foundation.  You can\'t baby them to the KY Derby.  To my mind, if he skips running MM back it\'s probably a sign of a tired colt and more a bad thing than a good thing.  I\'d like to see him run at 1 1/8 vs a top field first.

Another question. Which of these trainers with colts that already have enough points to get in, or only need to hit the board to get in, have the moxey to use one of these final preps as ONLY a prep to set their colt up for a top effort first sat of May?

[TempletonPeck]

\"We were somewhere around Barstow, on the edge of the desert, when the drugs began to take hold...\"

Derby fever strikes without warning, and strikes hard... ;-)

Re Cloud Computing, he was on the work tab somewhat recently (2/19): http://www.drf.com/news/preakness-winner-cloud-computing-back-work-tab

[moosepalm]

TempletonPeck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"We were somewhere around Barstow, on the edge of
> the desert, when the drugs began to take hold...\"
>

Some may go with \"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times,\" but I think that opener to \"Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas,\" quoted above, is the GOAT. Of course, Dickens followed his with \"it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness.\"  If past performance on this board has any predictive value, we are about to be inundated with a great deal of the latter.

On the subject of Hunter Thompson, anyone contemplating a first time visit to the Derby, such as myself, might be well advised to read his 1970 magazine article, easily accessible online, titled \"The Kentucky Derby is Decadent and Depraved.\"

As far as insight into this year\'s Derby, I got nuthin\'.  I will wait until all the preps are finished, and then I\'ll probably have even less.

[Tavasco]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Tavasco, why don\'t you want to see MM in the Ark
> Derby?  Is it that particular race you want to
> avoid? Or is it a spacing thing in general?

In my naivete, an outing in the Arkansas Derby seems risk without corresponding reward. MM could injury himself, my bet would go down. MM could go over the top and set himself up for a bounce. I just don\'t know enough about the positives

> Pletcher always pays attention to spacing, but he
> also knows/believes MM needs seasoning and
> foundation.  You can\'t baby them to the KY Derby.
> To my mind, if he skips running MM back it\'s
> probably a sign of a tired colt and more a bad
> thing than a good thing.  I\'d like to see him run
> at 1 1/8 vs a top field first.

Your points above, give me some confidence. Thank you. If the colt is not tired now great, but another major effort could help or hinder him? Seasoning & Foundation are concepts I don\'t know much about. I understand the desired outcomes just not the mechanics and tactics of getting there. Is the idea  as simple as no substitute for racing experience?


> Another question. Which of these trainers with
> colts that already have enough points to get in,
> or only need to hit the board to get in, have the
> moxey to use one of these final preps as ONLY a
> prep to set their colt up for a top effort first
> sat of May?

My guess, Desormeaux at least and Lucas of course. I suppose I got stuck in an all or nothing mindset. The concept that a trainer would sent a horse out for additional seasoning seems ethically suspect, although I suppose its done all day every day.

[TGJB]

\"There was a desert wind blowing that night. It was one of those hot dry Santa Anas that come down through the mountain passes and curl your hair and make your nerves jump and your skin itch. On nights like this every booze party ends in a fight. Meek little wives feel the edge of the carving knife and study their husband\'s necks. Anything can happen. You can even get a full glass of beer at a cocktail lounge\".

I wonder if anyone has ever named a horse Red Wind...

[hooper]

August 27, 1972 – Longacres first million-dollar day. A crowd of 13,638 fans waged $1,024,338. It was also the same day as the Mile where Red Wind beat favored Briartic to win the $35,000 Mile.

[ajkreider]

I quite like, \"It was a pleasure to burn.\" - which is mostly how I feel about my Derby trifecta bets.

I also have no idea about the derby, except that I think might be the deepest field ever - as determined by the (nearly) completely arbitrary measure of the number of starters with at least a 2 somewhere on their sheet.*  A quick look through the recent archives says the most we\'ve had is 13.  I think we\'re there already, and that\'s not including the foreign invaders or final prep jump ups.

*I chose the 2, because I think a reasonable improvement on that puts you in the discussion for the win, with the right trip.

[mjellish]

Tav, I guess I\'m of the opinion that the KY Derby is such a demanding race that it is difficult for most horses to fire their best race anyway, let alone if they lack the foundation and racing experience to handle the stress and distance of the race...  20 horse field, most of them running further than they have before, in front of the largest crowd they will ever see, all the buzz and amped up atmosphere, even the jockeys on edge, 100,000 plus people cheering with the sounds of mint julep souvenir glasses breaking all throughout the grandstands...

The KY Derby really is a unique race.  And we\'ve seen many young horses with very little experience who had run big numbers not find a way to get the job done.  Materiality, Curlin, Dunkirk, Bodemeister, Verrazano, etc. all come to mind.

That being said, there is a lot of data that would seem to support that two preps is better than three as far setting a colt up to run a new top in the KY Derby.  So I can understand your less is more sentiment.  But to my eye those patterns apply to colts who raced at 2 and had some foundation and all of them had a race at 1 1/8th.

For me, if I\'m going to bet another Bodemeister to win the KY Derby they are going to have a number that lays over the field.  And I don\'t think Magnum Moon or any other colt has run a number like that.  So I think seasoning and foundation is going to matter.  

I guess if I were you I would want to see a good race out of Magnum Moon where he encounters some trouble, takes some dirt etc., learns something but also listens to his jock and runs well enough late to pair his top, perhaps without winning.  I would not want to see him get an easy trip and run a new 3 pt top in an all out effort while winning the ARK Derby with a bi/bo note.  

And regardless of what happens in ARK if MM even runs there, I would want to see Pletcher ship him to Louisville and train over the Churchill track leading up to the Derby.  Both Pletcher\'s Derby winners, Super Saver and Always Dreaming, did exactly that.  Many of his others who shipped to Keeneland or shipped in to Louisville on top of the race ran poorly.

[Niall]

On the topic of lightly raced w/2 preps and worthy efforts vs foundation and experience, I 2nd mjellish.

Unless... your horse is trained by Aidan O\'Brien. Check out some of the footage over at Racingpost.com. Racecourse gallops are more competitive than most horses will ever see.

Which brings me to...The UAE Derby. I\'m interested in seeing what maestro does with that pedigree. Besides that angle, it is a really compelling race in terms of the Ky Drby for other reasons. If things fall right, it is possible 4 European er non US horses could be in the starting gate.

Ahhh, good luck all and I\'ll be supporting the TG/NYRA alliance all day Saturday! But not Sunday...no wagering in NY on Easter Sunday, and I think that is cool.