One of the things I’ve loved about performance figures since day one are the individual cappers varied interpretations of the same data. It makes for Spa backyard battles and another not always so civil thread that has been a constant for me with a couple of former well known posters here.
I’m assuming the ROW was put up by TGJB, looks to be his MO.....
So at the risk of looking foolish, here goes.
I don’t see SP as an 0-2-X or non X in this case. This controversial pattern is interpreted here for one that has danced a few times then establishes a new top, as opposed to a first start baseline. Either way he ran much better than I anticipated in the FOY and yes if I was viewing this as 0-2, a non X is always very strong. SP gets a decent Tomillison for 9 furlongs but many were questioning his ability at 1 1/16 including his trainer in public comments. He gets no pedigree help from his dam on what she has thrown so far despite being a Mag D’Oro, Speightstown 2.5 times the stakes winners under as opposed to over a mile.
Promises Fulfiled got away pretty easy in the FOY, can’t see the aggressive Saez letting that happen here from the rail. Interesting prop bet involving which of those 2 come out of the first turn with the lead? Audible who I am completely tossing out of the equation has to go from out there to get position and will be 3 deep into the quick turn. Holy Bull was obviously a gutting race for him, he didn’t work for 19 days after then another 11 and has been consistently beat by his work mates. Mississippi is out there too adding blinkers?
I see a very hot pace with SP going further than maybe he wants to really go. A perfect set up for Catholic Boy whom I love in this spot unless the track comes up a conveyor belt which it hasn’t shown to be anything but fair so far this week?
CB has had 3 dirt races, a horror trip in the BC Juv, a solid effort that was well backed here in the Remsen and a very disappointing effort in the Sam Davis.
However his disappointment in the SD did pair his 2 yr old top in his first 3 yr old effort. Tampa is a quirky surface, many just don’t run over it but more importantly is CB was probably in the 80% range as to fitness and paired his top.
He has worked impressively and needs at least a 3rd place finish to be borderline on points, more likely win or place to make the Louisville gate.
The betting will be interesting among the 4 above runners, Audible I assume will be favored near the ML price, with the other 3 jammed pretty tight. CB could be the 4th choice and at 4/1 maybe 7/2 he gets a good win bet here.
Hofburg is the wild card, he will not be 20/1 half that is more likely. I’ve had a lot of discussion this week with quite a few about this VERY un Mott like move.
I will not let him knock me out of the 🌈 and will use him prominently with CB in verticals probably hitting some all buttons with those 2 in supers & tri’s. I like the chances of this one making the triple. How old school is a 4f bullet 5 days before the race? You don’t see that one too much anymore, not quite Jan Nerud or The Chief blowing‘em out in 34 a couple of days before but Mott would not run anywhere near this spot without something pretty special.....
Good luck and happy 🌈 hunting,
Frank D.
