Derby Stuff

[FrankD.]

Top 20 in points from KY Derby site are in the link below.
McKenzie has been removed and Firenze Fire has been moved outside of it. Someone has some common sense realizing this is not a Derby Horse or it’s a typo? I would like to think the former.

If Magnum Moon, Quip & Solomini run any version of 1,2,3 in Arkansas it leaves only the 10 points for 4th & 10 in The Lexington to crack the list. Of course there will always be defections between now and May 5th.


We know a few things for sure:
TAP will have 5 in, 25% of the field.

Justify will be hyped, ride the B.B. Derby wave to favoritism maybe as low as 5/2? He won’t be loose setting pedestrian fractions.

There will be a jump up wise guy horse that should be 20/1 and will be 9/1.

If Magnum Moon wins in Hot Springs he will ride the Pletcher wave to 3rd betting choice behind Justify & Good Magic.

There will be a million stories about Mendelssohn, A.O., Coolmore and the Dubai route to Kentucky. With a bit of luck, there may even be one about his monster effort and a kindergarten explanation of a bounce?

What we don’t know:
How Justify will react to 140,000 people, to being behind horses and taking dirt,
to getting bumped around. Though immensely talented and with as efficient a stride as you ever want to see, he has not figured it all out yet for sure.

The final TG numbers.

Who Chuckles the Clown will masquerade as this year.

What I think:
Lots of talent in this years field, very solid 3 yr old crop.

I’m no where near willing to find out if Justify is Superman at his odds. He will have to beat me and getting him out of any sequence vertical or horizontal will pay well.

2 months ago if someone told you that Bolt d’Oro was healthy, training well and would be the 4th betting choice at 6 or 7/1 would you have believed them?

A long way to go, just a few thoughts to get the ball rolling.....

Good Luck,

Frank D.








https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/leaderboard

[dsipes]

Does anybody else think that this year\'s Bluegrass was very similar to last year\'s Santa Anita Derby where Battle of Midway (Flameaway) did all the dirty work only to have Gormley (Good Magic) rally  to get up?  I think Flameaway could be like BOM and make the KD tri and super valuable like BOM did last year, especially if Flameaway draws a better inside post in KD.  A lot of similarities in my opinion.

[Tavasco]

While I along with Frank liked Flameaway on Saturday and he ran a gutsy race I do not like him in the Kentucky Derby. It is simple really, he has already developed a lot.  On a more subjective note - Good Magic does not impress me.

[richiebee]

FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Top 20 in points from KY Derby site are in the
> link below
>
>
> We know a few things for sure:
> TAP will have 5 in, 25% of the field.
>
  THIS WILL BE A GREAT TEST FOR THE \"SINATRA THEORY\"
>

>
> There will be a million stories about Mendelssohn,
> A.O., Coolmore and the Dubai route to Kentucky.

> MANDELBAUM IS NOT THE TRADITIONAL \"DESERT TO THE DERBY\" COLT. NOT OWNED BY SHEIK MO. TRAINED NOT BY BIN SUROOR, BUT BY WORLD\'S GREATEST TRAINER (SORRY BAFFERT FANBOYS). ALSO MANDELBAUM HAS ALREADY BEEN TO N.A.
>
>
> Who Chuckles the Clown will masquerade as this
> year?

  CHUCK WILL BE POSTING THIS YEAR AS \"Q.ANON\".🤡
>
>
>
> 2 months ago if someone told you that Bolt d’Oro
> was healthy, training well and would be the 4th
> betting choice at 6 or 7/1 would you have believed
> them?

  6/1 7/1 NO VALUE ON COLT ON 3 RACE LOSING STREAK TRAINED BY MAN GOING TO FIRST RODEO?
>

>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/leaderboard

[richiebee]

Maybe you could utilize the TG Archives and Redboard Room to support your opinion?

[johnnym]

Way to kick things of Frank.
1) How many horses will be below 10-1? 5 or 6? Think Justify May be a bit higher than 5/2 for that reason. Lots of history against him.
2) Gronk will be this years Patch way over bet.
3) Do not believe Justify needs the lead.
4) How will any of these horse’s act in front of a 140,000?
5) I believe there is a big talent difference between the top 6 and the rest of the pack.
6) Good Magic Final 1/8 13.31 seconds a bit slow with another 1/8 mile. Is Chad smarter than us?
7) Still have 4 weeks and the Ark Derby.
Good Luck should be fun
John

[jmg5220]

I think you forgot about Audible

[dsipes]

Not even in the super like Battle of Midway?

[Tavasco]

Current Futures Pool some:

Mendelssohn 4/1

Bolt 8/1

Good Magic 10/1

Wise Guy Candidates

My Boy Jack 28/1

Hofburg 20/1

Louisianna gets no respect

Noble Indy Is 37/1

Lone Sailor 93/1

Still Stuck on the fact that Coolmore spent $3,000.000 @ Sept. Kee yearling sale for the Dubai Boy.

[jerry]

Can’t make a call until we see the final prep numbers. Very few horses win the Derby off of a regression.

[FrankD.]

I didn’t forget him at all....
I hope the public shares your assessment 😎

[Silver Charm]

Agree. A useful one. His slingshot move in Fla Derby will have him attacking and in position if he is good enough.

What does JJ do? Stay with Bolt? Johnny V stay with Uadibleafter JJ bolted. Then it leaves Vinnie and Repole riderless. Magnum Moon and Saez are in tact. Remember Castellano was not in Florida because he was in Dubai.

[Molesap]

I think Justify will end up at 2/1 (or slightly less) on Derby Day. Now whether or not the horse DESERVES those odds is debatable, but I do not think anyone, especially on this board, accused “the public” as always being smart. Looking at historical trends tell me unless something strange happens, Justify will be your favorite at no more odds than 2/1 and depending on how far the hype train moves out of the station, maybe even 8/5. First off, as discussed, there is huge hype surrounding this one, especially given he is undefeated and his connections are nowadays synonymous with Kentucky Derby. Add in the fact that the public has been VERY successful tabbing the winner of the Derby the last five years with the favorites riding a five-year win streak, there is no reason for the public to get off now. Heck, they many will be are thinking that they keep on winning betting the “best” horse each year, so why not pile on this undefeated freak of nature trained by the same guy who trained the last Triple Crown winner. The last bit of evidence comes from the Derby Future betting. While this is a bit premature as it does not close for a number of hours still, but only one winner of the Derby not in the mutual field paid more on Derby day than he did in the last pool (Monarchos paid $15.80 in the last pool, but $23.00 on track). Justify is 5/2 as I write this and may drift up to 3/1 as late “market corrections” come in on horses perceived to be undervalued like Bolt d’Oro and Good Magic who both sit at 10/1, but I do not think he will drift that much if at all. If you look at the winners that were 3/1 in the final pool – Nyquist, Big Brown and Fusaichi Pegasus, they all were 2/1 on Derby day (see table below). I think all of this points to Justify being a strong favorite on Derby day and would be very surprised if he was more than 2/1.

Kentucky Derby Winner   Final Pool   Derby Day
2017 Always Dreaming   $14.20           $11.40*
2016 Nyquist           $8.00*           $6.60*
2015 American Pharoah   $13.00           $7.80*
2014 California Chrome   $20.80           $7.00*
2013 Orb           $29.60           $12.80*
2012 I\'ll Have Another   $45.60           $32.60
2011 Animal Kingdom   $64.40           $43.80
2010 Super Saver   $73.00           $18.00
2009 Mine That Bird   $36.80(f)   $103.20
2008 Big Brown           $8.60*           $6.80*
2007 Street Sense   $15.40           $11.80*
2006 Barbaro           $20.80           $14.20
2005 Giacomo              $103.60           $102.60
2004 Smarty Jones   $23.60           $10.20*
2003 Funny Cide           $107.40           $27.60
2002 War Emblem           $24.00(f)   $43.00
2001 Monarchos           $15.80       $23.00
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus   $8.00*           $6.60*
1999 Charismatic   $26.60(f)   $64.00
*designates favorite

[firmturf]

One wager we should consider is an over/under on how many times American P will be mentioned in the Derby week telecasts by NBC and NBC Sports.

My tip is to bet the \"over\".

[richiebee]

Thanks Mole for the facts and figures based post, a nice contrast to some of the
endless word salad and endorsements for non - thorographical products seen around
here every year at Derby time.

I do not know if any Derby favorite will come into Louisville so lacking in seasoning. Not only has Justify only raced three times, he only has a total of 3 miles on the odometer. Additionally, he has beaten a total of 14 competitors in those 3 races, including two maidens in the SA Derby.

No amount of hype or public adoration could convince me to support this inexperienced, albeit highly talented colt 27 days from now. And yes, I\'ve been wrong before.