Molesap,
It is a little early for my Early Stab at the Kentucky Derby Odds with the Ark Derby still to be run so I haven\'t put extraordinary time into this endeavor yet. I find this a very interesting take on your part and had not considered the last future pool as a predictor of Derby Day odds. It looks like Justify closed at 3-1 and Mendelssohn at 5-1 if it is completely updated on the Derby Future website. My spreadsheet only goes to 2000 so excuse me for not having \'99 included for the discussion below.
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Your thought of slightly less than 2-1 seems very unlikely to me. Since 2000, only 1 horse has went off under 2.00-1 during those 18 Derby runnings. That was Point Given in 2001 at 1.80-1. There were 17 betting interests. On your side of this argument is that Baffert trained him and was so confident that year that he said he thought he had a chance that Point Given and Congaree would run 1-2. He seems to have similar confidence this year.
As you probably know, there have been only 3 horses at 2-1 (not 5-2) during those 18 runnings or in other words 2-1 but not 5-2. FuPeg, Big Brown, and Nyquist. Only Big Brown and Nyquist were 2-1 with 20 betting interests in the race. One reason you may be right at 2-1 is that Big Brown and Nyquist were both undefeated headed into Derby Day like Justify. There have been four favorites that have been between 2.50-1 and 2.90-1 (5-2) in that span. So, during the last 18 runnings, there have been 8 horses under 3-1 and 10 that were at or over that number.
I also would point out that Mendelssohn is the likely 2nd choice esp if DRF includes his Beyer in DRF as I heard on one media source as a possibility (DRF connected representative stated this). Some have said Beholder\'s brother will be far more than 5-1 or 6-1 on Derby Day. But depending on the ArkDerby result (which includes Magnum Moon and Solimini among others), I think he very well could be at 5-1 or so esp since he is owned by Tabor. I point this all out because if by chance he did go as low as under 9-2 as the 2nd choice (under 4.50-1), I find it highly unlikely that Justify is anything less than 5-2. Interestingly, no 2nd choice has been less than 4.00-1 since 2000.
There is one other note I would like to make on your connection between Future wagering and Derby Day odds. The truly uninformed money wasn\'t in the pool this weekend; on Derby Day, it will include far more people that think the 15 is pretty and that number 3 has beautiful silks or the wiseguy that always plays a 20-1 shot for $500. This would make me believe Justify\'s odds will be slightly higher than you are likely thinking on Derby Day.
My take is that he will be the favorite. The \"hype\" will subside a bit. Since the point systems started in 2013 (including that Derby), the favorite has won all five runnings supporting your idea that the crowd will go after the favorite again. But last year the favorite was 4.70-1 so I don\'t think that will be the reason Justify is a low number. Also, I\'ve already had several handicappers I respect already tell me since yesterday that they will be against Justify on Derby Day. Justify will go favored. Where he ends up is a real guess. Under 2-1 seems very, very unlikely. 2-1 seems a little low to me. I see him between 2.50-1 and 3.50-1 (and closer to 2.50 than 3.50) if I had to guess today but I will wait to see how next week unfolds for a full guess at the field including Justify. And what if Derby week he draws post number 1?
As to johnnym\'s point that Justify will be higher than 3-1 (3.00-1 or more), again, I\'m not certain any of us can venture a fair guess until the Ark Derby is ran just in case something interesting happens there figure wise. Johnny, I highly doubt there will be 5 or 6 horses under 10-1 (9.90-1 or less). Recent history suggests it will be likely be 3 or 4 horses in that range. The two times since 2007 there were 5 or 6 horses 9.90-1 or less, the favorite was 5.20-1 and 5.40-1 respectively. That won\'t happen this year with Justify.
