Pletcher and the three week turnaround

[johnnym]

Looking for any stats on how Pletcher does with three year olds on three weeks rest.
I know he won the Derby with Super Saver and was in the $ with Danza coming out of the Ark Derby.

Thanks
John

[TempletonPeck]

http://lmgtfy.com/

[johnnym]

Really?
I did search before I asked.

[TempletonPeck]

If I were you, and I wanted this information, here\'s what I might do:

Go to the Redboard Room, and download (for free!) the TGs from Oaklawn\'s Saturday races. You\'ll have Magnum Moon\'s sheet, which has the following stats for TAP bringing horses back in 11-29 days: 4724 starts, wins at 24%, ITM 55% (vs. 24% wins and 54% ITM overall), with 15% tops and 32% pairs (vs. 17% and 31% overall).

At this point I\'d be thinking \"Ok that\'s a nice start, but 11-29 days includes 2 and 4 weeks rest, and this sample includes older horses (and younger, for that matter), so my work is not yet done!\"

What I really want is information about 3yos, and more specifically derby trail 3yos, and probably most specifically how his horses do *in the Derby* off 3 weeks rest.

Lucky for us, we refer to the Archives where the sheets for all Derby runners back to 1997 are available, and we start looking for TAP horses that came in off 3 weeks.

At this point I\'m going to turn it back over to you.

Cliff\'s Notes: Yeah, really.

[Molesap]

Here is a rundown of all 48 of Pletcher’s starters. He is 46-2-2-3-2-0 in the Kentucky Derby overall. He has had 19 starters going into the Derby on three weeks rest. They are a combined 19-1-2-3-2-0. Interestingly, before Always Dreaming won last year most of his superfecta finishes in the Derby came on horses with just three weeks rest. Going into last year, on intervals other than three weeks he was a dismal 24-0-0-1-0-0 (Revolutionary came in off a five-week rest). I have bolded the races on three weeks rest (up until recently the Blue Grass was run on three weeks rest, while the Lexington was run on two weeks rest). I did not double check these, but it was something that I have been keeping every year, so I am fairly confident the numbers are correct.

Year, Horse, Derby Finish, Derby Odds, Finish and Last Prep
2017, ALWAYS DREAMING, 1, 9/2, 1ST – FLA DERBY
2017, TAPWRIT, 6, 27/1, 5TH – BLUE GRASS
2017, PATCH, 13, 22/1, 2ND – LA DERBY
2016, DESTIN, 6, 18/1, 1ST - TB DERBY
2016, OUTWORK, 14, 26/1, 1ST - WOOD MEM
2015, MATERIALITY, 6, 12/1, 1ST - FLA DERBY
2015, ITSAKNOCKOUT, 9, 31/1, 4TH - FLA DERBY
2015, CARRE DIEM, 10, 7/1, 1ST - BLUE GRASS
2014, DANZA, 3, 9/1, 1ST - ARK DERBY
2014, WE MISS ARTIE, 10, 20/1, 1ST - SPIRAL
2014, INTENSE HOLIDAY, 12, 14/1, 2ND - LA DERBY
2014, VINCEREMOS, 17, 50/1, 14TH - BLUE GRASS
2013, REVOLUTIONARY, 3, 6/1, 1ST - LA DERBY
2013, CHARMING KITTEN, 9, 33/1, 3RD - BLUE GRASS
2013, OVERANALYZE, 11, 16/1, 1ST - ARK DERBY
2013, PALACE MALICE, 12, 24/1, 2ND - BLUE GRASS
2013, VERRAZANO, 14, 9/1, 1ST - WOOD MEM
2012, EL PADRINO, 13, 29/1, 4TH - FLA DERBY
2012, GEMOLOSIST, 16, 8/1, 1ST - WOOD MEM
2011, STAY THIRSTY, 12, 17/1, 7TH - FLA DERBY
2010, SUPER SAVER, 1, 8/1, 2ND - ARK DERBY
2010, MISSION IMPAZIBLE, 9, 17/1, 1ST - LA DERBY
2010, DEVIL MAY CARE, 10, 11/1, 1ST - BNNIE MISS (F)
2010, DISCREETLY MINE, 13, 32/1, 4TH - LA DERBY
2009, JOIN IN THE DANCE, 7, 51/1, 5TH - BLUE GRASS
2009, DUNKIRK, 11, 5/1, 2ND - FLA DERBY
2009, ADVICE, 13, 49/1, 1ST – LEXINGTON (2 weeks)
2009, MONBA, 20, 32/1, 1ST - BLUE GRASS
2007, CIRCULAR QUAY, 6, 11/1, 1ST - LA DERBY
2007, ANY GIVEN SATURDAY, 8, 14/1, 3RD - WOOD
2007, SAM P., 9, 44/1, 3RD - SA DERBY
2006, BLUEGRASSCAT, 2, 30/1, 4TH - BLUE GRASS
2006, KEYED ENTRY, 20, 20/1, 3RD - WOOD
2005, FLOWER ALLEY, 9, 41/1, 2ND - ARK DERBY
2005, BANDINI, 19, 7/1, 1ST - BLUE GRASS
2005, COIN SILVER, 12, 39/1, 1ST – LEXINGTON (2 weeks)
2004, LIMEHOUSE, 4, 42/1, 3RD - BLUE GRASS
2004, POLLARD’S VISION, 17, 24/1, 1ST - ILL DERBY
2003, COWBOY CAL, 9, 39/1, 2ND - BLUE GRASS
2002, WILD HORSES, 10, 50/1, 2ND - ARK DERBY
2001, INVISIBLE INK, 2, 55/1, 4TH - BLUE GRASS
2001, BALTO STAR, 14, 8/1, 1ST - ARK DERBY
2000, IMPEACHMENT, 3, 6/1, 3RD - ARK DERBY
2000, MORE THAN READY, 4, 11/1, 2ND - BLUE GRASS
2000, TRIPPI, 11, 6/1, 1ST – FLAMINGO
2000, GRAEME HALL, 19, 46/1, 1ST - ARK DERBY

[johnnym]

Ty Molesap

[RICH]

I have him at 4-18 with 3yr 21 days or less, seems like a pretty small sample
22% win

[Gerard]

This isn\'t a Pletcher stat, but one that is somewhat interesting.

4 or more starts in the calendar year going into the Derby with the last start at Oaklawn on Arkansas Derby day. 26 starters, 1 new top in the derby, and it wasn\'t Smarty. MM will probably need a new top to win this one. Obviously many were not a real part of the derby conversation.

Untrapped
Sonneteer
Creator
Whitmore
Mr. Z
Ride on Curlin
Oxbow
Bodemeister
Optimizer
Nehro
ArchArchArch
Line of David
Flying Private
Z Fortune
Storm in May
Steppenwolfer
Lawyer Ron
Andromeda Hero
Smarty Jones
Pro Prado
It\'s All in the Chase
Wild Horses
Jamaican Rum
Arctic Boy
Balta Star
Impeachment

[jbrown007]

One must keep in mind another variable that looks past the 3 weeks rest specifically for Pletcher. How many races/starts has the horse ran prior to the Arkansas derby. It\'s easy to see Danza and Super saver ran well for pletcher but both had only two races as a 3 year old. I believe this is especially important since I almost always bet against pletcher horses running big numbers. I wouldn\'t expect Magnum Moon to move forward regardless of what his pattern may look like. Just not very Pletcher like.

[big18741]

Maybe more important than the timing for Pletcher is that his horses don\'t run new tops(2 for 48) in the Derby.His two winners were pair up horses that saved ground.

The exacta horses were both pair ups of an earlier race and saved ground on the first turn.Ramon gave out a brilliant ride on Bluegrass Cat to get over on the rail from an outside post going into the first turn.

The three show horse were ground saving pair ups.
The two super horses(Limehouse and More Than Ready) were on the rail and I think they ran off races.

No clue on who the two horses he got tops out of were but they weren\'t relevant or else too wide to matter.

So the questions for me are which Pletch horses can pair up this year and what kind of trips given their post,running styles,and riders I can project.

[mjellish]

Pletcher\'s usual style is not to run back in 3 weeks.  His whole program is about spacing and setting up a horse for a max effort.  This colt has been asked to do quite a bit since his debut Jan 13th.  If he makes it to the KY Derby it will be his 3rd race in 7 weeks, which is a different kettle of fish than 2 races in 3 weeks.  So I don\'t think you can put his last race and the KY Derby in a 3 week box and compare him to Danza and a few others that were mentioned.  

I also have a sneaking suspicion his sheet on TG is going to look very different than his sheet on Rags.

[Molesap]

That is what I find so intriguing about the numbers on Pletcher. At this point with horses coming into the Derby on four weeks or more rest he is 23-1-0-0-0-0. The only horse to finish in the top five with his seemingly preferred way of giving his horses time between races had yielded no fruit at all until last year when Always Dreaming won. In addition, I know the prep schedule is different than it was 20 years ago, but I was surprised that slightly more than half his Derby entries were coming in off three weeks or less rest. But as many have noted, there are so many other factors to consider, but my take home from the data is not to dismiss a Pletcher horse just because he is coming in off a three week rest and you certainly need to consider other factors.

[ajkreider]

Regardless of the number of starts, Arky Derby horses haven\'t posted a lot of new tops in Kentucky.  If memory serves, since 2000, it\'s been Classic Empire, Looking at Lee, Nehro, Eight Belles, and Pharoah something or other, putting in new tops.

Note A) the recency, and B) all hitting the board.   It could just be a matter of getting better horses to run in that race, and the fact that any quality horse putting in a new top in the Derby is likely to find it\'s way into the super.

[big18741]

Revolutionary had 5 weeks from the La Derby when he ran 3rd.

[jbelfior]

Wins it IMO if not for Borel coming up the inside which was quicksand that day. Still feel the pain of that woulda coulda shoulda double with Princess of Sylmar (beat Beholder that day).

Orb got the trip of his life and never won another race after that. The Lukas horse was down there and won the Preakness 2 weeks later.

Lies, damn lies, statistics.


Good Luck,
Joe B.