Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18

[Fairmount1]

My Early Stab at the Actual off odds on the Derby.  A few decisions still remain on the field I believe including whether Quip runs in the race or not.  I have also included last year\'s final guess I posted on 4/30/17 and the actual off rank and off odds below this year\'s field, if interested.

This one is a very, very difficult Derby field to assess in this fashion at this point.  I didn\'t dedicate as much time on this first stab as I have in some prev years but I may update it in another 10-14 days with more information becoming available.  I was also missing a piece of information I usually have but wanted to get this out there early.  I have Hofburg and Gronkowski lower than most think out of guessing that Hofburg will be the wise guy horse and Gronkowski will take the NFL fan\'s money from testosterone filled knuckleheads of all ages playing large bets on GRONK.  I didn\'t think that could be true to such an extent until Patch was 14-1 last year (Pollard\'s Vision for the same trainer in \'04 was 24-1).  Also, Magnum Moon probably far higher than people think but the word is out on the Ark Derby being slowish it seems.  This does add up to the correct amount of points which many don\'t pay attention to although they should.  Go ahead and start tearing it apart, no hard feelings at all as it will help me tweak it more in the coming days.


1. Justify, 2.90-1
2. Mendohlssen, 5.60-1
3. Audible, 6.10-1
4. Good Magic, 11.50-1
5. Bolt d\'Oro, 12.80-1
6. Vino Rossi, 14.60-1
7. Magnum Moon, 17.50-1
8. Hofburg, 18.20-1
9. My Boy Jack, 22.80-1
10. Enticed, 26.00-1
11. Gronkowski, 27.00-1
12. Noble Indy, 28.60-1
13. Quip, 29.30-1
14. Solomini, 32.30-1
15. Promises Fulfilled, 36.00-1
16. Flameaway, 37.10-1
17. Bravazo, 43.40-1
18. Free Drop Billy, 46.60-1
19. Firenze Fire, 54.50-1
20. Lone Sailor, 57.80-1

___________________________

Last year\'s Early Stab on 4/30 (last attempt)

My Attempt by Rank, Name, Odds.  Actual Rank and Actual Off Odds to the Right in Bold

1. Always Dreaming, 4.20-1       1st choice,   4.70-1
2. Classic Empire, 4.50-1       3rd choice,   6.80-1
3. McCracken, 7.40-1          4th choice,   6.90-1
4. Irish War Cry, 8.50-1       2nd choice,   4.80-1
5. Gunnevera, 10.30-1          5th choice,   10.00-1
6. Thunder Snow, 15.60-1       8th choice,   16.40-1
7. Practical Joke, 17.50-1       12th choice,   27.80-1
8. Gormley, 18.20-1          10th choice,   22.30-1
9. Hence, 19.40-1          7th choice,   15.00-1
10. Girvin, 23.30-1          9th choice,   22.10-1
11. Irap, 24.00-1          16th choice,   41.40-1
12. Tapwrit, 26.00-1          11th choice,   27.10-1
13. Lookin At Lee, 30.20-1       13th choice,   33.20-1
14. J Boys Echo, 32.30-1       18th choice,   47.30-1
15. Battle of Midway, 33.40-1       15th choice,   40.00-1
16. State of Honor, 37.40-1       19th choice,   54.00-1
17. Untrapped, 39.00-1          20th choice,   58.00-1
18. Patch, 46.60-1          6th choice,   14.10-1
19. Sonneteer, 54.50-1               14th choice,   39.70-1
20. Fast and Accurate, 70.40-1      17th choice,   41.80-1

[TempletonPeck]

I think it\'s, as has become usual, a pretty good first pass at it!

IMO, Magnum Moon will be (significantly) shorter than you have him - he wasn\'t even 17.5/1 in LV before the Arkansas Derby (~10/1). Presently 5/1. I think ~8/1 on the day. Longer than Audible, but shorter than Good Magic or Bolt D\'Oro.

[jbrown007]

I mean you said it yourself you are just way off on Magnum Moon. He is bet down at my 5dimes account +650. He was 8-1 before winning the Arkansas derby convincingly in Kentucky derby future pool 4 and he is 5-1 at the Wynn. I also think good magic and Bolt will be in the 8-10 to 1 range.

[Fairmount1]

Clearly missed the mark on him according to some texts I\'ve received already as well.  

A few notes on MM though.

Keeping him lower is his undefeated record for certain and many of the future books have him very low.  So I could be way off here but....  

Here are some thoughts on why he might be a little higher than some are thinking right now.  Top Beyer figure has not been over 100 and Justify, Mendehlsson, and Bolt all with figures over 100 to date.  Good Magic is a 2yo champ and Chad Brown\'s Only horse.  MM is Trained by Pletcher but Johnny V and JJ are elsewhere (I understand Saez has been with him since debut but thinking some may push their money in JV and JJ direction).  Pletcher has four of them in the race and all four of them won their last prep.  I think the Pletcher money gets spread out a bit b/c of the jock assignments.    

In 2015, Materiality came in to the Derby with 3 starts all at 3, All at GP.  He was undefeated with Beyer Figs of 87, 102, 110 in the Florida Derby.  He went off at 11.50-1 while stablemate Carpe Diem went off third choice 7.70-1.  Carpe Diem came in with a record of 5-4-1-0 with a best fig of 98. Johnny V rode Carpe and JJ rode Materiality. So, when Pletcher has these multiple horses in these Derbies some surprising things happen with his horses it seems.  I\'m not married to 17-1 and will think it through some more but there are reasons to believe he won\'t be 2nd choice as some are believing.  If I could amend it I\'d play around with putting him closer to the 10-1 mark while adjusting others and not even sure if lower or higher just yet.    

Thanks for the feedback.

[RICH]

Fair

That was a very good job last year.

[Tavasco]

I just read that Wynn\'s Las Vegas has both Good Magic and Bolt d\'Oro @ 7/1. That surprises me some. But their line doesn\'t have to balance.

My guess is that currently they want to create an image that the race is going to be competitive and with many horses having a chance to win. Such a good crop this year and at nearly half the size as previously to boot.

Fairmount has to take mob psychology into account to get his product right. That is tricky this far in advance because we don\'t know who and how the spinmasters will treat the players.

Then we have me looking at the race as a regular bettor. In all years past I tried to pick a bomb, a lonshot but this year I look at the race and see only two horses who have a chance to win. I think TG has more influence on me than ever before.

A Minus 4 and a SoCal # that usually seems to understate the performance actually turned in on Derby day. Plus both contenders run at or near the front i.e. little or no ground loss. So am I to believe some late running ground losing longshot is going to run a minus six or seven to upset the favorites.

No, no, no the group sings the favorites are going to bounce.  Oh yeah, from outfits that seem to manage bounces better than most. Even a three or four point regression makes them faster than the second tier who are unlikely, we\'ve learned, to improve in a tougher and longer race.

So my line is even money on each of the top two and a couple of hundred to one on all the rest.

[toppled]

I\'m with you on the top 2 being the main contenders, but I\'m going 3-4 deep in Oaks/Derby DDs and even though there are a lot of people here who don\'t take kindly to mentions of class & the roll key races play in determining class, I\'m a big key race guy.  The best key race among the races the entrants have run is the KYJC run last November at Churchill Downs.  The race produced 7 subsequent stakes winners and 5 of this year\'s top 20 ran in that race. Enticed is the only Derby entrant with a stakes win at CD.  At his long odds, I\'m going to make sure that if Enticed wins the Derby, I\'m going to be cashing a ticket on him.

[Gerard]

I don\'t disagree with the number on MM. I could see the oenophiles and snapplephiles driving the price down somewhat on Vino Rosso leaving MM a further back 3rd of the Pletcher betting interests in the 15-1 range.

The 4th Pletcher horse coming off a race that has produced the most KD jump ups over the years is holding my interest as well although he is still riderless. He\'ll be 2nd time blinkers and one of a few in this race who seems to be comfortable on the rail. A new top and a ground saving trip could get him into the tris.

[TGJB]

I think MM will be about the same price as Bolt, and half the price of the Wood winner. MM is undefeated, the point leader, and just won a GI.

[Gerard]

Strong points. Perhaps I\'m overestimating the power of the red carpet and the ability of a kid from Queens to spread the word of hope. Time will tell.

[jbelfior]

Gerard Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don\'t disagree with the number on MM. I could
> see the oenophiles and snapplephiles driving the
> price down somewhat on Vino Rosso leaving MM a
> further back 3rd of the Pletcher betting interests
> in the 15-1 range.
>
> The 4th Pletcher horse coming off a race that has
> produced the most KD jump ups over the years is
> holding my interest as well although he is still
> riderless. He\'ll be 2nd time blinkers and one of a
> few in this race who seems to be comfortable on
> the rail. A new top and a ground saving trip could
> get him into the tris.


Not to mention he has a running line and solid number at a distance that is a common thread among KY Derby winners of late.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[ajkreider]

Mendelssohn ran near the front, in more than :25.  What position does that put him in going into the first turn?  10 lengths back with 10 horses in ahead of him?  Doesn\'t mean he can\'t handle that pace on the front end, but I\'m not sure I want to bet him at those odds - leaving aside a bounce and shipping in on top of the race.  

Justify has proven he can go faster early, but still not at what the pace you usually see in the Derby.  

Bode went back.  Point Given went back.  It\'s not like Baffert\'s don\'t regress in the Derby.

[Tavasco]

A. Are you suggesting the winning number in this years Kentucky Derby will not be in the minus two or better range?

B. Are you also projecting this years Kentucky Derby will go in :23 and sub :47 by  a colt other than the top two and still be in the same zip code at the finish line. Who would that be?

C. Going back from a -4 to -3 does not concern me. Are you projecting a big bounce for Justify and/or Medelssohn. Anything can happen, Medelssohn might come out bucking like a bronco.

The history is easy. What has happened is well documented. At issue, for me, is predicting what will happen on Mayday no pun intended.


So AJ, if asked to take an early stand who is the value in the win slot at todays\'s estimated prices?

[ajkreider]

I\'m suggesting that Mendelssohn\'s apparent ability to run on or near the lead is only apparent.  A horse that can get to the front on a 25 second clip will get to run his race - won\'t have to worry about traffic, will go when the jockey says go, etc.  

Last year\'s Derby went in :22.7.  Maybe Mend can be within a couple of lengths of that pace.  Or, he could be in the middle of the pack looking for running room entering the far turn.  That doesn\'t require a bounce to get a weaker number.  He could have to check, or get stuck behind horses slowing down.  We don\'t even know how the horse will do eating dirt for a half mile.

I will have both of them (especially Justify) on top of several exotics.  I will also have Mend out of the super on plenty of tix.  I haven\'t played a win bet in the Derby in more than a decade, but my early value play on top would be Vino.

Edit:  As an aside, the knuckleheads are really going to pile in on Gronk, now that the real Gronk has a piece of the horse.

[Tavasco]

Thanks.

Yeah Gronk, Jeez, I have no idea what to think of that one. Except I don\'t expect him to be forwardly placed. I\'ll move him up if the temperature drops into the 40\'s and it rains.

I do appreciate your exotic strategy. Vino\'s previous bounceback causes me some doubt. He looked pretty solid destroying my exacta play in the Wood. I will not be surprised if he moves forward and his running style is not risky in my opinion.

Now we wait for the next defection.