Note - sorry for the length as it came out much longer than I anticipated.
Any thoughts on the Derby pace? I know that generally, TG’ers are not as worried about pace analyses as other methodologies, but I do not think there is as much pace in this year’s edition of the Kentucky Derby as most people seem to think. In fact, I think there is a legitimate scenario where Promises Fulfilled could wire the field. I want to be clear that at this time I do not consider it to be the most likely scenario, but perhaps likely enough to spread some tickets in that direction. I am hoping Snapper Sinclair does not draw in as he could change the pace scenario, but there are just two horses that seem committed to lead from their past performances in the field as constituted today – Promises Fulfilled and Justify. There are a few other possibilities, but no one else seems remotely interested in making the top here. Many seem content to sit right off the pace, but to actually try to get to the lead, there none that I can see. It certainly depends on the draw and the final field composition (and I think at this point it is more likely to have another defection than less likely) and there is always a potential suicidal try at the lead like by Palace Malice, but I cannot see Mike Smith riding Justify like Bodemeister this time around. He will try to sit on the outside and likely try to work out a more Big Brown type ride. That was the ride he gave him in the SA Derby and he was in front by a couple – he did not need to be that far outside.
As far as Promises Fulfilled, I know that is been a long time since a horse has run so poorly and come back to run well in the Derby and I did not purchase the advanced numbers as I did not think I would have much time to use them, so I am waiting to see the figures next when I purchase them. Then again, not too many other horses went under 22 seconds for their last prep before the Derby. Plus, I do not think Promises Fulfilled looked very good in the post parade, so I am inclined to disregard that race. I have seen a number of people noted they think that he will likely make the lead, but then immediately say he will stop. His Fountain of Youth looked pretty good and he had equipment problems in his last race as a 2YO. While I do not think at this point it is the most likely scenario, I do think it is reasonable enough to plan some of my bets where Promises Fulfilled gets the pace mostly his own way. I know I am in a HUGE minority here, but if he gets to set a normal pace without being hounded early, Promises Fulfilled may duplicate his Fountain of Youth score. Will it be good enough to get the job done? I envision him setting the pace much like his daddy, but perhaps not succumbing to the late pressure like Shackleford did. Trainer Dale Romans has already stated his intentions to put him on the lead, but who else may pressure?
Mendelssohn – was gunned to the lead in Dubai where you had to be on the rail to have shot, but doubt that tactic would be used here. Unlikely to press.
Magnum Moon – wired Arkansas Derby, but with glacially slow fractions. Has never been especially quick early and no reason to this he will change is tactics. Unlikely to press.
Justify – the most likely to put on a bit of heat early based on PP’s, but given his apparent brilliance and Mike Smith’s history on Bodemeister, I just do not seem him going for the lead unless Justify just pulls him to it. Unlikely to press.
Enticed – early pace figures put him near the top but has been 5th or worse early as many times as he has been 2nd or 3rd. Unlikely to press.
Flameaway – has been first or second in half his lifetime starts, but does not have brilliant early speed and would likely have to be pushed early – likely not the case in this race. Unlikely to press.
Noble Indy – has been on or near the lead in all of his starts, but seems more intent on stalking than leading. Stalked hopeless longshot last time who wilted and seems content to stay in the second tier. Unlikely to press.
Bravazo – seems to be the wildcard in terms of pace. Lukas not afraid to hard send his charges if he thinks that gives them the best chance. Head to head last year had him over six lengths back early. Unlikely to press unless Lukas decides to quarter horse from gate.
With so many horses apparently looking to get that sweet spot stalking trip like the last couple of winners have done, it may create a logjam behind as too many horses gun for too few positional spots. Besides the list above, Good Magic, Bold d’Oro, Solomini, Free Drop Billy and Instilled Regard may all vie for space in that bunch.
If Promises Fulfilled wins this, he likely has to go over 23, 47 and 1:11 for the early fractions. I think with this field, he may be able to do that. Still not sure he can hold on in that case but should be a big enough price to take at least a small shot.
What do you think?
