Mendelssohn

[dsipes]

Any opinions on whether Mendelssohn will regress off that huge TG fig and, if so, by how much?  Does the addition of Lasix mitigate a regression?  Haven\'t seen this discussed much by the Thorographers.

[richiebee]

My only comment would be that a visit to the most excellent and reasonably
priced TG archives would help you jump start a rational discourse on
Mendelssohn\'s chances, coming to Louisville as he is with a rather imposing TG #.

Since you do not impress me as much of a self starter, let me give you a nudge
on your quest for knowledge: you might either use the archives to see what
became of runners who came in with the fastest TG # in a prep, or you might
investigate how many Derby winners prevailed despite \"bouncing\" off of their
final prep (Whatever happened to the \"engineered bounce\" in the final prep?).

A word about Mendelssohn: an interesting article I read discussed the
difficulty handicappers and figure makers have when being put in the position
of having to evaluate a tour de force performance such as Mendelssohn\'s. The
article also mentioned Secretariat\'s Belmont and a flat mile run by the great
Frankel where he maintained a large margin over his competition for the entire
race; this reminded me of a conversation here and elsewhere which has raised
the possibility that large margins of victory might lead to distortion of
figures.

In any case, 6 days out, Mendelssohn, Good Magic and Bolt D\'Oro will certainly
be on multi-race tickets; Team Pletcher and Justify will not, all of which
might change after I study the field in earnest when entries are drawn.

Richiebee
Expert Emeritus

[toppled]

Mendelssohn\'s #s are a tough read because all his 2YO races are on turf & his 3YO debut was on synthetic, so we only have 1 dirt number.  

One thing that is quite evident from looking at sheets of 3YOs on dirt & 3YOs on turf is that the stakes type ones who can run well on both surfaces put up much lower numbers when they\'re running on dirt than on turf, so his 2YO numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt.  Now some of the numbers I\"m about to quote can be a function in part of development as the horse gets older, but it\'s very obvious that dirt #s are faster than turf #s for these 3YOs.  Just compare the 3YO turf stake #s this Friday at CD to the Derby horses if you have any doubt about this statement.  

For examples, look at some of the horses in this year\'s Derby (or AEs): Mendelssohn, 11.75 points lower on dirt than his turf top, Flameaway 6.75 points lower than his turf top, My Boy Jack 6.75 point top improvement turf to dirt, Combatant 9.75 better top dirt from turf (only one turf race as a FTS), Snapper Sinclair 7.5 point top improvement turf to dirt, Blended Citizen 4.75 better dirt top than turf and 2.75 better dirt than poly, Reride (only 1 turf race) 6.75 top improvement when on dirt.  

I can\'t say if he\'ll bounce or not, but if he doesn\'t he\'ll win this by 5-10 lengths.  There\'s no case I can make for leaving him off tickets when playing horizontally  or vertically. Right now he\'s my second choice behind Enticed.  I\'m going to go heavily into Oaks/Derby doubles with my keys as Coach Rocks as my A in the Oaks, and the 2 favorites Monomoy Girl and Midnight Bisou as my Bs.  My Derby As are Enticed and Mendelssohn, with Bs Good Magic, Audible & Justify and Cs Vino Rosso & Bolt D\'Oro.  For tris and supers my Ds are Hofburg & My Boy Jack, but my Ds won\'t be in the Oaks Derby DD.

[Al Caught Up]

A bit early for me to say, since I haven\'t looked at the #s and won\'t until the post positions are drawn on Tuesday, but Mendelssohn most reminds me of Barbaro, who like M had already established a strong turf line and exploded in his first start on dirt, in the Florida Derby.

I think it\'s a fairly rare phenomenon among legitimate Derby contenders over the past two decades.

If he is indeed first Lasix and he doesn\'t draw some absurd post position, he looks like a very scary horse to me.

[johnnym]

Barbaro ran on dirt prior to the FL Derby he won the Holy Bull

[dsipes]

I researched the archives back to 1997.  Basically, if you\'re solely a stats person, Mendelssohn has a tall wall to climb in the Derby.  Since \'97, only 3 horses have won who came in with the best TG fig in their last prep.  Those three winners however had a lesser spread between their figs 2 races back to their final prep than Mendelssohns, whose fig 2 back to his last fig in Dubai is one of the most significant spreads since 1997.  But, it could be argued Mendelssohn is unique with Barbaro being the closest to compare too.  To me (and I wonder what the rest of you think), I\'m waiting on Mr. Brown\'s seminar to see how Aiden O\'Brien has done in these situations. I\'m guessing this world class trainer is able to maintain or improve the form for his top class stock even after a huge performance and when shipping.

[Gerard]

O\'Brien did bring Master of Hounds in 2011. Ran him in the Juvenile Turf at CD in 2010. Finished 2nd to a southern hemisphere 3yo filly in the UAE derby. Was lasix on for the juvy turf and then for the derby. Shipped in Tues or Wed before race. Garrett Gomez was rider, think he had one or two dirt mounts on the undercard. Horse ran 5th, best finish for a UAE derby starter and IMO would have hit the board had he not ducked into the Shackleford dead rail for the stretch run. Oh well. FWIW.

[richiebee]

The only point I would make with regards to this comparison is that Master of Hounds\' UAE Derby was contested over a synthetic surface; Mendelssohn\'s blowout win was on a dirt track.

Here is a link to the article I referenced in a previous post discussing the difficulty of evaluating dominant performances:

https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/secretariat-frankel-hawk-wing-mendelssohn-freak-wins-are-virtually-unrateable/

[Tavasco]

My overactive imagination can\'t stop thinking about what happens when Rayya jumps forward 4 points with first lasix, first Baffert and gets into the money on Friday.

[jp702006]

If Rayya jumps forward 4pts, she wins for fun. Moving forward 2pts with a ground saving trip probably puts her in the money.

Patrick

[Fairmount1]

Tav:

When Rayya does this and I\'ve had this thought that she very well may do that.....here is what happens:

\"Mendelssohn and jockey Ryan Moore enter gate 16 as the 9-2 second choice as we are almost ready for the start of the 144th Kentucky Derby with just 4 horses left to load.\"

(My friends say I\'m the ultimate jinx so watch him draw post 1 now).

[firmturf]

I remember discussions from years past about synthetic and turf horses trying dirt for the first time running new tops. These were always ones to avoid the 2nd time on dirt. With synthetic almost gone now that old angle has gone away as well.

Remember all those Baffert horses shipping East back then?

[Gerard]

I did neglect to mention the surface change. It was more a point that other than bringing the rider along this time, O\'Brien is following the same blueprint.

As JB pointed out immediately after the race, and in the link as well, what was Moore doing the last hundred yards or so? While visually impressive, he was slowing significantly vs. the World Cup if you compare the two as they seem to have in the article and elsewhere. At the projected odds, I\'ll probably play against him getting the distance 2nd time dirt, but reserving final decision pending seminar.

Eyes on Rayya. The article has her and Reride going backwards as it seems the backpedaling Beyer does. TG has them pairing. Does her performance in the Oaks foretell anything other than maybe  moving the line slightly?

[TreadHead]

I\'m going to not draw too many conclusions from Rayya\'s race, good or bad, for a multitude of reasons.

A) she\'s a filly
B) this is her 5th race this year
C) her pattern is completely different
D) she\'s been on dirt all this time


I know people will want to dumb down the analysis and draw hard parallels on the \"coming from Dubai and adding Lasix\" angle, but it seems foolish to draw hard conclusions about what Mendy might do based on what Rayya does do.

[big18741]

Agree 100% with Tread.

As for her chances in the Oaks you\'d have to think Baffert will move her up a couple of points to play her.

I\'m playing Mendelssohn to X out in the Derby regardless of what the filly does.
Too much of an explosion to an extremely fast # going from grass/poly to dirt even if he is bred for it.

I do like some longer priced horses underneath so I might play a small tri saver with Mend on top just in case he\'s some sort of a freak but I really don\'t want him.